Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
So, Where Is Gold's Corrective Upswing? - 7th Mar 21
US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger Stock Market Crazy Ivan Event - 7th Mar 21
The Great Reset Is Coming for the Currency - 7th Mar 21
Gold Continues Declines on Bond Yield Jitters - 7th Mar 21
The Case for Inflation - 7th Mar 21
Dow Short-term Stock Market Trend Analysis - 6th Mar 21
Intel Rocket Lake EXPLODE on Launch - 11th Gen CPU's RUN VERY HOT Bad Cinebench R20 Scores - 6th Mar 21
US & UK Head for Post Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown Inflationary Economic BOOM - 6th Mar 21
FED Balance Sheet Current State - 5th Mar 21
The Global Vaccine Race Against Time and Variants - 5th Mar 21
US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger A Crazy Ivan Event (Again) In Stock Market - 5th Mar 21
After Gold’s Slide, What Happens to Miners? - 5th Mar 21
Racism Pandemic Why UK Black and Asians NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 BAME - 5th Mar 21
Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021 - 4th Mar 21
Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? - 4th Mar 21
The Top Technologies That Are Transforming the Casino Industry - 4th Mar 21
How to Get RICH Crypto Mining Bitcoin, Ethereum With NiceHash - 4th Mar 21
Coronavirus Pandemic Vaccines Indicator Current State - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations Explained - 3rd Mar 21
Stock Market Bull Trend in Jeopardy - 3rd Mar 21
New Global Reserve Currency? - 3rd Mar 21
Gold To Monetary Base Ratio Says No Hyperinflation - 3rd Mar 21
US Fed Grilled about Its Unsound Currency, Digital Currency Schemes - 3rd Mar 21
The Case Against Inflation - 3rd Mar 21
How to Start Crypto Mining Bitcoins, Ethereum with Your Desktop PC, Laptop with NiceHash - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing Portfolio Buying Levels and Valuations 2021 Explained - 2nd Mar 21
There’s A “Chip” Shortage: And TSMC Holds All The Cards - 2nd Mar 21
Why now might be a good time to buy gold and gold juniors - 2nd Mar 21
Silver Is Close To Something Big - 2nd Mar 21
Bitcoin: Let's Put 2 Heart-Pounding Price Drops into Perspective - 2nd Mar 21
Gold Stocks Spring Rally 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
Covid-19 Vaccinations US House Prices Trend Indicator 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
How blockchain technology will change the online casino - 2nd Mar 21
How Much PC RAM Memory is Good in 2021, 16gb, 32gb or 64gb? - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis - 26th Feb 21
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls - 26th Feb 21
Kiss of Life for Gold - 26th Feb 21
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market - 26th Feb 21
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 - 26th Feb 21
The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues - 25th Feb 21
Vaccine inequality: A new beginning or another missed opportunity? - 25th Feb 21
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out - 25th Feb 21
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! - 25th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! - 25th Feb 21
Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater - 25th Feb 21
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply - 25th Feb 21
US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) - 24th Feb 21
Should You Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? - 24th Feb 21
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! - 24th Feb 21
M&A Most Commonly Used Software - 24th Feb 21
Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? - 24th Feb 21
VUZE XR Camera 180 3D VR Example Footage Video Image quality - 24th Feb 21
How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options - 24th Feb 21
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? - 24th Feb 21
2 Stocks That Could Win Big In The Trillion Dollar Battery War - 24th Feb 21
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 - 23rd Feb 21
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals - 23rd Feb 21
7 Things Every Businessman Should Know - 23rd Feb 21
For Stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped? - 23rd Feb 21
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? - 23rd Feb 21
Precious Metals Under Seige? - 23rd Feb 21
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review - 23rd Feb 21
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply - 23rd Feb 21
Stock Markets Discounting Post Covid Economic Boom - 22nd Feb 21
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard - 22nd Feb 21
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle - 22nd Feb 21
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? - 22nd Feb 21
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? - 22nd Feb 21
How to Test NEW and Used GPU, and Benchmark to Make sure it is Working Properly - 22nd Feb 21
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator - 21st Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat - 21st Feb 21
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? - 21st Feb 21
Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets - 21st Feb 21
Great Investment Ideas For 2021 - 21st Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

JPM “Tentative” On Balance Volume Sell Signal

Companies / Technical Analysis May 12, 2009 - 02:51 AM GMT

By: Brian_Bloom

Companies Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn terms of Joseph Granville’s original argument, an On-Balance-Volume sell signal needs to manifest as a saw-tooth pattern, i.e. There needs to be a lower low following on from falling highs. This has not yet happened. (See second chart)

However, it may well happen in context of other developments which may be leading indicators. The charts below (courtesy are showing the following tentative signs of bearishness:
  1. The “false” break up out of the rising wedge has now reversed, although there has been no sell signal yet
  2. The rising wedge emerged after an upside gap which has not yet been fully covered. The price needs to fall to $28 for that to happen.
  3. There has been a sideways penetration of the rising trend line on the OBV
  4. The Rate of Change (ROC) chart is showing a series of three falling tops. Usually, following this type of pattern, it turns negative.
  5. The rising prices within the rising wedge occurred within the context of falling volume (except for the false breakout – which might well have been engineered)

Below is a P&F chart (3% X 3 box reversal) of JPM, courtesy

It needs to be emphasized that the April 30th “buy” signal in the chart above should be treated with extreme caution if the Primary Trend of the market is “down”.

Technically, the gap in the second bar chart above needs to be covered. If it is covered at 28, then the most recent bull move will not only be negated, a new sell signal will manifest which will give rise to a downside target of between 25.23 (horizontal count target) and 22.4 (vertical count target). Further, if the Primary Trend is indeed down, then the vertical count is the more believable target.

But 22.4 – should it be reached – will represent a breakdown through the rising blue trend line.

It can be seen from the following chart (5% X 3 box reversal) that if the blue trend line in the chart above is penetrated on the downside, the price could fall all the way back to 15.08 based on the vertical count target below.


This is a VERY dangerous market! The integrity of a technical (trading) signal is dependent on the direction of the Primary Trend, and there is a raging debate regarding whether the old Primary Bear Market has ended and a new Primary Bull Market has commenced. The majority of day traders and technicians out in the market today have never lived through a savage bear market. Those who are managing “Other People’s Money” are predisposed to blindly believe the technical (computer algorithm and chart) signals which are telling them what they want to hear – which is why there has been so much volatility. The “rush” into the market in recent weeks has had an SOS feel to it.

Author’s note

I have tried to be as clear and as articulate as possible in the past few weeks. Based on fundamentals (underlying values) it is my view that there is no way that we are entering a new Primary Bull Market. In my view, what we are experiencing is a technical reaction within a Primary Bear Market. Current share prices are discounting future corporate earnings two years into the future – assuming the economy doesn’t unravel from here. Share prices will not rise for any “logical” reason in the face of this fact and it is very hard to make a case for an economy which is going to get back to “business as usual” in the foreseeable future. For example, GM closing 2600 dealers – which is 42% of its total supply chain – and the likely brouhaha litigation that will follow – is certainly not a bullish development. (Source: ) For example, That the Fed has been forced to buy treasuries because there are not enough takers for the US’s confetti debt is certainly not a bullish development. Trying to keep interest rates from rising under conditions where the Fed is now, literally, printing money will be like pushing on a string. Rates will rise and the dollar will fall if the Fed continues to print money, and rates will rise if they stop buying the US’s confetti debt. In short, rates will rise over time because “time” has now become the enemy.

None of this will be good for the derivatives industry and the reason I have been focusing on JPM in recent weeks is that they are the largest player, world-wide, in the derivatives industry and the majority of their risk exposure is “off balance sheet”. The typical argument relating to derivatives is this: “We don’t know whether we are going to make a profit or a loss on these instruments, so how can we show them as either an asset or a liability on our balance sheet?” Until the answer to that question is known, JPM must be judged to be reasonably well capitalized – which is almost certainly why it passed the stress test. But I am the proverbial “reasonable man”. No reasonable man will accept that the world’s largest player in the derivatives industry is going to come face-about into the headwinds of rising interest rates and a falling dollar and not get dashed onto the rocks.

Here are two of the risks being faced by JPM:

The charts above show that yields are wanting to bottom out and that the dollar is wanting to roll over and head south.

Can this be averted? Of course anything is possible and, if the authorities are going to fail to avert a catastrophe, it won’t be for want of trying. That’s why the chart of JPM is so important.

By Brian Bloom

Beyond Neanderthal is a novel with a light hearted and entertaining fictional storyline; and with carefully researched, fact based themes. In Chapter 1 (written over a year ago) the current financial turmoil is anticipated. The rest of the 430 page novel focuses on the probable causes of this turmoil and what we might do to dig ourselves out of the quagmire we now find ourselves in. The core issue is “energy”, and the story leads the reader step-by-step on one possible path which might point a way forward.  Gold plays a pivotal role in our future – not as a currency, but as a commodity with unique physical characteristics that can be harnessed to humanity's benefit. Until the current market collapse, there would have been many who questioned the validity of the arguments in Beyond Neanderthal. Now the evidence is too stark to ignore.  This is a book that needs to be read by large numbers of people to make a difference. It can be ordered over the internet via

Copyright © 2009 Brian Bloom - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Brian Bloom Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules