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U.S. Unemployment Claims Dips Green Shoots?

Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010 Jun 04, 2009 - 04:53 PM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Economics

The string of 17 consecutive weeks of higher continuing claims ended today with slight dip in claims.

Continuing claims hit 6.788 million last week, setting a 17th consecutive record (revised slightly lower to 6.750 million). Today's number is 6.735 million, breaking the streak (assuming the number is not revised up later).


Please consider the Department of Labor Weekly Claims Report.

Seasonally Adjusted Data

In the week ending May 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 621,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 625,000. The 4-week moving average was 631,250, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 627,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.0 percent for the week ending May 23, unchanged from the prior week's revised rate of 5.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 23 was 6,735,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,750,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,687,500, an increase of 88,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,598,750.

Weekly Claims



The dip in initial claims from the March peak of roughly 650,000 is not accelerating very fast, if indeed at all.

Note that the 4-week moving average of initial claims rose this week after generally declining for a couple months. Also note that the 4-week moving average of continuing claims rose a significant amount.

Economists expect to see unemployment by 10% at the end of the year. I expect to see it at 9.8%+- by August and approaching 11% by the end of the year. Bear in mind the "stress-free tests" conducted by the Fed had an adverse scenario of 10.3% at the end of 2010.

Finally, I would like to point out that unemployment insurance does run out. People will drop off the rolls when benefits expire.

Those looking for a recovery in jobs soon are going to be disappointed

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2009 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Jim Parker
05 Jun 09, 06:57
Jobless Recovery - again

Could not agree more.

The math is quite simple. Now it is time when some unemployed are not eligible to get unemployment anymore. Hence - unemployment claims dip. Following this logic - when everyone is unemployed for 10 month or longer there will be no claims period and economy will be fixed. Just like Lou Dobbs predicted.


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