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Is George Soros Long or Wrong on the Global Economic Rebound?

Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010 Jul 01, 2009 - 08:15 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: Billionaire investor George Soros thinks the worst of the global financial crisis is behind us.

In a June 20 interview with Polish television, the Hungarian-born Soros acknowledged that this has been the most serious crisis he's seen in his lifetime, but said, "Definitely, the worst is behind us."


For those that like to interpret "Soros-speak," that's as powerful a sign as any that one of the world's most successful investors is "going long."

But is he wrong?

On one hand, the World Bank is busy roiling the markets with recently updated figures that project a 2.9% decline in global economic activity this year. Then there are the signs that the "green shoots" (how I've come to detest that term) may be more like weeds. Debt is devastating the developed world and the once-mighty G-7 looks more like a G-1 every day.

On the other hand, I wouldn't bet against him. When it comes to financial influence and acumen, Soros is about as powerful and prescient as they come. He's made billions over the years speculating on things that others simply couldn't see or, more often, didn't want to believe. He's as iconic as he is legendary for making big bets on market timing even if, by his own admission, he's not always right.

For the millions of investors who are tempted to interpret Soros's comments as bullish, that admission forces me to urge caution. In fact, my advice to proceed with caution extends to any comments that might be made by such other investment legends as Warren Buffett, or even Soros' former investment partner, noted author and commentator Jim Rogers.

I preach caution for three reasons:
  • Despite the fact that each of these men is fabulously successful, the typical retail investor has no idea how much money they're betting on the upside, or what percentage of their wealth is involved in any publicized position.
  • It's not clear what - if any - protective stops are being used so you don't know whether the positions they've taken represent core portfolio holdings or speculative trades.
  • These revelations - disclosures - are usually made after the fact, which means that investors who may want to tag along for the ride are put in the risky position of having to make "me too" investments.

So if you're a savvy investor, what steps can you take to translate moves being made by three of the best investors of our time into profits of your own?

A good place to start is by taking the time to understand precisely what drives these guys. Even though Rogers hunts for opportunities around the world, Soros tends to pursue investment plays involving currencies and macroeconomic trends, and Buffett is a deep value guy, they are more alike than they are different. That's especially true since the core elements of the strategies these three investors use to win and profit usually run counter to Wall Street's conventional wisdom.

Take the very concept of profits, as an example. Most people are surprised to learn that none of these gentlemen sits around over coffee in the morning, rolling his hands with an evil laugh as he wonders aloud how much money he's going to make on that day. But nearly all have gone on record at one point or another talking about the importance of not losing money in the first place. They've also repeatedly stressed the importance of waiting until the really compelling opportunities develop before they put their money at risk.

Rogers, once Soros' partner at the Quantum Fund, a hedge fund that's often described as the first real global investment fund, goes a step further. He describes his investment process as a little like waiting until somebody else puts money down in the corner, then "walking over and picking it up."

Another common trait is that not one of these three investors believes that you have to take big risks to make big money. In fact, all three gentlemen believe, as I do, that it's how you concentrate your wealth that matters.

This flies in the face of what Wall Street would have you believe which is that you need to diversify your assets to get ahead. Diversification as Wall Street practices it is a complete misuse of the math and a proxy for an entire establishment that doesn't know what it's doing.

The thinking is that by spreading your money around willy nilly, some of your holdings will rise in value, even as other parts of the portfolio fall. Even so, by diversifying, Wall Street says that you will be better off for it over the long run. Granted, there are some instances where taking steps to "diversify" leaves you better off than if you'd done nothing at all, but one of the critical problems with diversification as Wall Street has practiced it is that it doesn't work when everything goes down at once - as so many investors who had been led to believe they were protected found out the hard way in 2000 and again in 2007.

That's why, for example, I'm a proponent of concentrating my efforts on a few relatively high-probability choices, especially when it comes to trading services, such as the Geiger Index or the New China Trader, for example. It's a strategy that individual investors should consider, as well.

But what matters most is that people put the comments they hear from these guys into perspective and think for themselves. It's important to remember that neither Buffett, nor Soros nor Rogers care about what other people think. That's one of their real strengths. Nor do they care what the markets will or won't do.

In fact, none of the three - as least as far as I can tell from the research that I've done - subscribes to the "random walk" or "efficient market" theories I've mentioned as complete bunk in recent months.

The bottom line is that Soros, Buffett and Rogers have demonstrated time and again that they'll only make a move when they're darned good and ready - when they've done all they can to scope out the situation at hand, and done everything possible to make sure that the percentages are in their favor.

That, alone, is a terrific lesson for retail investors to learn. Wall Street tries to push investors into action with advertisements that portray "real" people making trades from their kitchens, or getting the latest quotes on their mobile phones. They show attractive retired couples who've achieved their dreams with big sailboats, or antique cars, or on expensive vacations. Ignore those messages and you've effectively elbowed aside the artificial sense of urgency that Wall Street is trying to create.

Not only is this manufactured urgency designed to separate more of you from your money, but they wouldn't do it if they knew that most investors got it "right" more often than they got it wrong.

Buffett, Soros and Rogers act only when they believe the time is right. Buffett has referred to this as waiting for the Sunday pitch. If you've never heard that term before, it's one that dictates extreme patience while all the spitballs, knucklers and sliders go by. You only take action when the one pitch you know you can hit out of the park is on its way - then you swing from the heels, giving it all your effort.

There's one final task that these guys do better than almost anyone - and that's to keep everything in perspective. They assemble their portfolios carefully with diligent planning, attention to detail and an emphasis on the objectives they expect to achieve. They make investments based on a clearly defined set of expectations and do not hesitate to cut their losses if they find out they were wrong.

In that sense, every investment choice they make fits a specific role in their portfolio. Nothing, if they can help it, is left to chance. So to the extent there's any action to be taken right now, let me leave you with one final thought.

No nation in the history of mankind has ever bailed itself out by doing what we're doing now, which means that placing bets on a "recovery" is really a fool's errand. On the other hand, making choices that capitalize on the trillions of dollars now being injected into the world's financial system is the place to be. History shows that it's better to be generally long resources, inflation-resistant choices, and real companies with real earnings.

Not only will these types of profit plays fall less than others if the markets stumble and fall from here, they'll also rise faster and farther once the capital infusions start to work their way through the global financial system and the rebound gets under way.

And I'll bet my bottom dollar that George Soros knows it.

[Editor's Note: Fourteen trades. All profitable. Since launching his Geiger Index trading service late last year, Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald is a perfect 14 for 14, meaning he's closed every single one of his trades at a profit. And he did this in the face of one of the most-volatile periods since the Great Depression. Fitz-Gerald says the ongoing financial crisis has changed the investing game forever, and has created a completely new set of rules that investors must understand to survive and profit in this new era. Check out our latest insights on these new rules, this new market environment, and this new service, the Geiger Index .]

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