Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Draining Lower...Earnings On Deck...

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009 Jul 12, 2009 - 05:34 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs the market opened for trading today, the world seemed to be watching whether today would be the day when the highly anticipated 875 Sp neck line would finally break down. We closed seven points above it yesterday and with the futures lower and hovering right near that grand number, anticipation seemed to fill the air. The bears were falling all over themselves thinking today would be it. We opened lower and tried to move higher but that didn't last as the bears came charging in, taking the SP 500 a few points below the magical level.


As this occurred, yet another technical blow was about to hit the bears over the head. While it's true the daily charts across the board are broken, the sixty minute time frame charts were flashing Rsi's right around 30, a level you never want to put on new shorts at, while also flashing huge positive divergences. The air was let out of the balloon and the bears realized that for yet another day, they would not be able to get any true satisfaction. No, the market didn't blast off as those daily charts are just too weak to allow anything huge to the up side.

However, the bears had to settle for yet another close above 875 and with major earnings coming up next week from some financial stocks, it seems as if the bears may have a bit longer to wait than they'd like. With Goldman Sachs (GS) on deck before the market opens for trading on Tuesday, it's hard to imagine too much market selling before it knows just what this massive leader will say. It may say great things and we gap up and then fail but it seems as if the market is going to want insight as to what the leader of all leaders is saying so they can figure out what all the others might be in line to do.


 
We simply are trading in a range and obviously near the very bottom of that range. With the major indexes all trading below their daily 20 and 50 day exponential moving averages, you can't say anything positive about them. Their Macd's are all pointing down but not from deeply compressed levels. There is plenty more downside room if the bears can seize on things. Rsi's are near 40 thus they are not oversold by any means. These bearish realities keep me from getting long this market but you simply can't be aggressively short or short much of anything near such critical 875 Sp neckline support.

You'd want a rally to short in to if we can back test those 20 and 50 day exponential moving averages or short a breakdown and retest that rolls over. Shorting much right in front of this huge level hasn't bought very much satisfaction for the time being. Sp 894/900 and Nas 1760/1775 are good areas, if we can get that high, to short in to. The more you do right here the more likely it is you'll get frustrated by the whipsaw action that the bifurcation between the 60's and daily's is causing. Sixty minute charts good while the daily's are bad. The longer term trading range of 956 to 869 is in place. The short term range is now 900 down to that 869 level. Just not much there to take advantage of at this time.
 
We have those big earners to look at next week and here is a list of reports you'll want to watch very closely throughout the week. Monday we have CSX Corp. (CSX) and Novellus (NVLS). Tuesday we have GS and Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) along with Intel (INTC). Thursday is huge. We have Biogen (BGEN),  JPM Morgan (JPM), International Business Machines (IBM) and Google (GOOG). Friday we have two more financial's in  Citigroup (C), Bank Of America (BAC) and lastly General Electric (GE). Don't underestimate the power of these earnings reports and what they can do to the markets. Loads of whipsaw coming no doubt. Please be very careful.
 
Sentiment Analysis:


 
The bulls can be heard saying that there are fewer and fewer of us as everyone turns bearish because of that clear and undeniable head and shoulders pattern in place. The bears will say that this pattern bodes poorly for the market and technically it should. One problem is that everyone and I mean everyone is talking about it. Cnbc talks non stop about this pattern and when something becomes too well known and talked about in the stock market, it usually has a hard time becoming a reality. Everyone piles in on the trade most likely to occur and thus it never happens. The trade gets too crowded with shorts and they can get frustrated quickly and cover those shorts and the pattern never plays out. This is still unclear of course and the pattern is nasty for sure. Just something to ponder as sentiment plays a huge role in the stock market as most of you I'm sure have learned and know by now.
 
Sector Watch:
 
Most of our Sector charts are more or less mixed with some above/below respective 50 EMA's.  Many sector charts have flattened out ahead of some important earnings reports due out on the next couple of weeks which will provide some good visibility.  One area not immune to the hard selling this week was that of the Commodities.  Most commodity areas got annihilated with the Oil Services Index down 30 points from top to bottom the past month finally seeing a bit of upside retracement late week. 

The Oil Contract broke badly through our 50 EMA like a knife through butter which likely will provide resistance now on bounces (see 5th chart below).  In addtion, Gold continues to find major headwinds at the $950-1000 level and both Gold and Silver rolled over this week to new multi-month lows.  First Support for Gold comes in at $875 our 50 EMA and then $775 our longer term Rising Support Line.  If the market does continue to correct few groups will be left behind.  Both the key Financials and Transports are more or less flatlining near our 50 EMA's and will trade off coming reports.
 

The Week Ahead:
 
So here we are. We're at the precipice of breaking down below that critical neckline at Sp 875. If it breaks hard and closed forcefully below, at least by 1%, then the door is open to much deeper selling by the bears. The bulls will have lost all support from the 20 and 50 day exponential moving averages to the last line in the sand, the 875 neckline. Very few if any will want to step in and be a hero as they know the bears will get very aggressive based on there being no real support directly in front of them.

The earnings report will be a huge player. Some nights will be better than expected and other nights worse. The market will swing wildly back and forth. The bears need to seize on things soon as the longer they go without taking out the 875 Sp neckline, the more the daily charts will unwind downward thus making the break below that key level and holding it harder and harder. It's do or die time soon for the bears. They have no excuses left. The daily charts are weak but yet to be massively oversold. Slow and easy is the only way to play a market such as this is for now.  Respect both pivots out of our current 870-900 range.
 
Peace
Jack Steiman

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 30-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2009 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

Jack Steiman Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in