Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE? - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

EUR vs. USD Currency Forecast Into 2010

Currencies / Forex Trading Jul 29, 2009 - 04:40 PM GMT

By: EliteGlobal

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEUR vs. USD formed a rectangular pattern during July 2008 to till date and awaiting for the upside breakout at 1.44 levels. Once it breaks the 1.44 levels, US dollar will depreciate to 1.64 against euro. Due to global economic recovery, investor seeking commodities and equities rather than invest in US dollar.


Forex Outlook

  • Forex markets are in consolidation phase which will provide the direction for the future. Global financial market and currency market also in consolidation phase along with the currency market
  • Recent global economic activity shows the signs of stabilization which is contracted sharply in the first quarter of 2009 but the economic recovery will be slow and gradual. Continuous increase in the unemployment and rise in commodity prices are the major concern to the economic recovery.
  • Global GDP growth is on pace to register a year of negative growth in 2009 for the first time in decades. Even though Global economic growth will turn to positive in next year, inflation will be the main concern for policy makers.
  • Consumer confidence and business confidence across the various countries are increased in Q2 2009 compare to Q1 2009 implies the worst of the recession has passed. During the year 2010, Central banks would increase its interest rate to combat inflation.

EUR vs. USD has strong resistance at 1.42-1.44 levels and its struggling to break that level. Also it has strong resistance level at 1.36-1.38. So for next few months it will trade between 1.36-1.44 levels and after that we can expect depreciation of US dollar.

  • During 2nd July, European Central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.0% on its policy meeting and we expects that the ECB to maintain its interest rate for next two Quarters to ensure the liquidity for economic growth.
  • Even though flat trend in business investment and consumer spending, increase in the business confidence and consumer confidence implies the economic bottom out. But the continuous rise in the unemployment will slows the recovery.
  • European Central Bank may print more money to buy Europe banks debt and buying euro-denominated covered bonds directly from primary and secondary markets over the next year in order to maintain the money supply.
  • German investor confidence unexpectedly fell in July, indicates the recovery in Europe’s largest economy may take longer time than previously expected.
  • Based on our forecast, US and Euro interest rate will be at 2.2 and 3.6 percent during end of the year 2010 due to drastic increase in monetary base by Fed Reserve will leads to inflation in end of the year 2009. The US fiscal deficit is estimated to reach 14% of GDP by end of the year.
  • Overall, US economy is in better position in economic recovery than its European or Japanese counterparts. US economy will reach positive GDP in Q3 2009 but the recovery on European economy will be slow. But due to Global economic recovery, investors seeking high yield assets rather than US dollar. So US dollar is in long-term depreciating trend against Euro in 2009 and 2010.

By EliteGlobal Market Research

http://eliteglobal.do.am

Elite Global is the world's leading Market Intelligence assisting the Fortune 500 Companies in their Management decisions and Procurement Professionals all over world for Planning their procurement and cost control. Our website: http://eliteglobal.do.am

© 2009 Copyright EliteGlobal Market Research - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules