Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Five More Banks Go Bust, Stocks Retrace as Gold Breaks Out

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009 Sep 05, 2009 - 01:53 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFive more failed banks!

These are taken from the FDIC Failed Bank List.  No further comment is necessary.

These are taken from the FDIC Failed Bank List.  No further comment is necessary.

Unemployment high, working hours low.

Employers kept Americans’ working hours near a record low in August, signaling that economic growth is poised to reward companies with added profits while postponing any recovery in the job market.

The average workweek held at 33.1 hours, six minutes from the 33 hours in June that was the lowest since records began in 1964, the Labor Department said yesterday. The report also showed that while payrolls fell by the least since August 2008, the unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high of 9.7 percent.  The numbers have been gamed so badly at the BLS that it may be estimated that the real unemployment number could be a million more than estimated.

The VIX is pushed back to its base. 


--The VIX was pushed back to its base below Critical Support/Resistance at 27.28.  This action may be likened to a coiled spring that will have to release its energy very soon.  The delaying action may have the effect of a much stronger release when it finally happens.    The target for the VIX is its November 2008 high of 89.53.  Think of that in relation to what equities were doing during that same period.  This indicator is getting no respect at the moment, but may be warning us that something serious is afoot.







The SPX retraces.


--The SPX retraced 50% of its decline from last Friday’s high and now has a reversal pattern in place n the daily chart.  Critical Support is at 1006, which held the SPX in check for two days before breaking above.  Trading volume on Friday was listless and diminished during the day while the market went higher into the close on program trading








 The NDX retraces.

NDX.png--The NDX retraced 61.8% of its decline back to the underside of its trendline.  It held below Critical Support/Resistance at 1611 until Friday, when it broke above it.  It, too, has a reversal pattern now on the daily chart. 








GLD broke out of its symmetrical triangle.


-- GLD rallied above its symmetrical triangle and Critical Support Friday at 95.47.  I remain bullish as long as it stays above Critical Support.  The next hurdle is a massive head and shoulders neckline just above 98.  However, GLD is overbought and may need a little more of a pullback before attacking that obstacle.    An overbought condition, on the other hand can be maintained in a “melt-up” situation, where panic buying takes place due to unusual circumstances.  The only thing that comes to mind is the state of the Shanghai Index, which I will discuss later.







USO broke uptrend support.


-USO broke its trendline this week and is headed for further declines below Critical Resistance at 35.50.  The pattern suggests a couple more subdivisions lower before downside profits may be taken.








Introducing the Financial Index (ETF).


 IYF has also presented us with a reversal pattern and a very tight stop from Critical Support/Resistance at 50.25.  The divergences in RSI and the Slow Stochastics support the thesis that the final top is in and the pattern itself calls for a third wave (of a smaller degree) next on the agenda for IYF. 








Introducing the Shanghai Index ETF.


While the Shanghai Index has already been testing bear market territory, the FXI has had about half of the Shanghai Index decline.  This three-day weekend gives us some issues with this ETF, since there is a reversal pattern and the Shanghai market will have been open for two days before ours reopens on Tuesday.   







TLT tests its neckline support.


-- TLT retested its neckline Friday.  Critical Support is at 96.29 and you can see that it closed just below it.  That action gave us a breakeven week in the Long Bond.  I have adjusted the trendline to monitor its progress, as I had suggested earlier.  Although the neckline was challenged, it held, so the probabilities are high that a resumption of the rally will develop on Tuesday.







Change this ETF’s name to Rodney Dangerfield.


--UUP closed below Critical Support at 23.31 on Friday.

I am still bullish against 23.04.  Bullish wedges tend to be fully retraced, so I expect a strong rally to develop in UUP.

In summary, wedges triangles and broadening tops are all coiling actions that are building up to strengthen the next move.  It is obvious that their reversals may be delayed, but that just tightens the spring for a greater push back when it breaks out.   I hope you all have a relaxing weekend!




Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at .

Anthony M. Cherniawski,
President and CIO

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules