Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stock Market Dow 30k before End of 2020? - 13th Jul 20
Credit Market Investments Turned Into End-User Risk Again - 13th Jul 20
Investors Are Going All-In on This Coronavirus Proof Industry - 13th Jul 20
5 Vital Insights That You Can Gain From Instagram Trackers - 13th Jul 20
Stop Believing The 'Economy' Is The Same As The Stock Market - 12th Jul 20
Spotify Recealed as The “Next Netflix” - 12th Jul 20
Getting Ahead of the Game: What Determines the Prices of Oil? - 12th Jul 20
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again - 11th Jul 20
The Bearish Combination of Soaring Silver and Lagging GDX Miners - 11th Jul 20
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

The Global Financial Crisis Explained- Credit and Credibility Part2

Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009 Sep 24, 2009 - 01:20 AM GMT

By: Richard_Karn

Stock-Markets

Continued from Part1 - Consequently, the ETR believes a return to the gold standard, or some rules-based derivation thereof, is highly unlikely without either a grassroots US taxpayer revolt or an utter collapse of the fiat dollar precipitated by global consensus to end its use as the world’s reserve currency. Neither appears likely at this juncture.  The groundswell of popular dissent needed to achieve the former seems to have been largely bred out of Americans over the last generation, replaced by a distracted, self-absorbed apathy that seeks easy salvation in a president that emulates the wrong Roosevelt: what we need is a trust-buster carrying a big stick, not an interventionist appeaser masquerading as an eco-warrior.  


And as is explored in the next chapter, the reflation efforts of the Fed and the Treasury are likely to be heartily, even desperately, embraced by geopolitical friend and foe alike, for despite the dyspeptic rhetoric and economic saber-rattling there is no other currency in which to hide from the ravages of the financial crisis sweeping the world, for it is our contention that all of the world’s currencies today, which are universally fiat, have become but derivatives of the US dollar.65   In a world of fiat currencies, we believe dollar strength will ebb and flow with the advance and remission of the cancer at the heart of the global financial crisis, its strength attributable to the notion that the so-called senior currency at the center of the global economy will be the last to collapse.

So strangely enough, despite the unparalleled monetary inflation being wrought upon the dollar that will have tragic consequences sometime in the future, we see the dollar strengthening against all other currencies, not by dint of US economic strength but by the comparative weakness in all other currencies, for a less well-publicized tidbit is almost every country on earth is also inflating their currency just as fast as they dare.  The only currency against which the dollar will ultimately not appreciate is gold, which is gradually re-emerging as arguably the most senior of all currencies. 

This is why the Emerging Trends Report has been advocating since we began publishing in 2005 that you can speculate with dollars all you want, but if you wish to actually save money long term, be it for retirement or a child’s education or just to protect your hard-earned money from the relentless depreciation of monetary inflation, put it into physical gold or silver.  In 20 years’ time, you can rely on an ounce of gold or silver still being an ounce of gold or silver—who can honestly say what the real value of a fiat dollar, euro, yen or yuan will be? 
History suggests less, quite probably substantially so.

Credit and Credibility presents the Emerging Trends Report’s comprehensive assessment of today’s financial turmoil and what we consider to be five of the most pressing issues that stand to impact the global economy in the years ahead.  Each of these issues are explored in the first five chapters:

  • fiat currency, the financial abuse it engenders, interventionist policy response to perpetuate it, and the role of the US dollar going forward;
  • our contention that all fiat currencies today have become derivatives of the US dollar has stunning implications globally;
  • the extent to which emerging markets can decouple from ‘consumer’ economies, and the role of China as the litmus test for both the regional and the emerging market thesis;
  • our contention that the world has had its fill of ‘financial innovation,’ and the only way the US economy can recover will be through its traditional strengths in agriculture, manufacturing, invention, and hard work; and,
  • our assessment of the issues attendant to the anthropogenic global warming debate and pending legislation.

Credit and Credibility then delineates the investment approach demanded in this ‘brave new world,’ identifying potential pitfalls to recovery, asset classes likely to become candidates for bubble-dom, a set of leading indicators likely to mark the true bottom, and how these five issues will affect each of our investment themes. 

In order to facilitate the comparison and update of our nine themes within this context, we are including complete copies of our original coal, gold, water & food, nuclear energy, silver, electric grid, transportation fuels, material science, and natural gas reports and have appended substantial commentary regarding the performance of each going forward, including stocks positioned to outperform as well as a ranking by viability in the current environment.  The heavily annotated eBook runs to more than 430 pages of text, not including 200+ pages of source material and suggestions for further reading. 

To purchase Credit and Credibility as an individual report, or on an annual subscription basis, we invite you to visit our website at: http://www.emergingtrendsreport.com

By Richard Karn/ETR

310 Arctic Boulevard #102
Anchorage, AK 99503
Phone: 510-962-5021
www.emergingtrendsreport.com


1 Chayefsky, Paddy: Network; MGM: 1976. The  “Mad as Hell” soliloquy may be viewed here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90ELleCQvew&feature=related

2 Langely, Noel (screenplay): The Wizard of Oz; Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer: 1939.

3 Kotlikoff, Laurence J.: “Is the U.S. Going Broke?”; Forbes: 29.09.2008. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0929/034.html

4 Altman, Roger C.: “The Great Crash, 2008”; Foreign Affairs: January/February 2009. http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20090101faessay88101/roger-c-altman/the-great-crash-2008.html

4 Welsh, James E.: “The Financial Commentator on the Economy”; Welch Money Management: Vol. 5, Issue 28, 04.05.2009. (subscription required) http://www.welshmoneymanagement.com

6 Whitney, Meredith et al: “Consolidated Lending Market Poses Risk to Overall Consumer Liquidity”; Oppenheimer: pp. 1: 30.11.2008. http://www.opco.com

7 Kotlikoff, Laurence J.: “Is the U.S. Going Broke?”; Forbes: 29.09.2008. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0929/034.html

8 Laise, Eleanor: “Some Consumers Say Wall Street Failed Them”; The Wall Street Journal: 29.11.2008.  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122791328588265155.html

9 Williams, Walter J: “Still-Intensifying U.S. Inflationary Recession…”; Shadow Government Statistics: No. 47, pps. 45-6, 14.11.2008.  http://www.shadowstats.com

10 Johnson, Simon: “The Quiet Coup”; The Atlantic: May, 2009. http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice

11 Greenspan, Alan: “Gold and Economic Freedom”; the Objectivist: 1966. http://www.financialsense.com/metals/greenspan1966.html

12 The Federal Bank of Minneapolis: “What is a dollar worth?”; undated. http://www.minneapolisfed.org/index.cfm

13 Grant, James: “The Confidence Game”; Wall Street Journal: 18.10.2008. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122428355436946301.html

14 Kemp, John: “U.S. & UK on brink of debt disaster”; Reuters: 10.01.2009. http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService4/idUSTRE50I4BU20090119

15 Williams, Walter J.: “Government Economic Reports: Things You’ve Suspected But Were Afraid To Ask! The Consumer Price Index”; Shadow Government Statistics: 01.10.2006. http://www.shadowstats.com/article/56

16 Associated Press (not attributed): “Despite Crisis, Bankers get $1.6 Billion”; Associated Press: 22.12.2008. http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/bailout_executive_pay/2008/12/22/164409.html

17 Mares, Arnaud & Cailleteau, Pierre: “How Safe are Safe Havens?” Moody’s Global Sovereign: April 2009. http://www.moodys.com

18 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA): World Fact Book: 2008; CIA: last update 14.05.2009. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html

19 System Restore is a software program that returns a computer’s setting to a time when the system was operating properly.

20 For a chronicle of programs extant through early June 2009 when we go to press, please refer to Appendix 2.

21 Please refer to Appendix 2 for Dalio, Ray: “1Q 2009 Client Conference Call”; Bridgewater Associates: slide 7, 22.04.2009. http://www.bwater.com

22 Daggett, Stephen: “Cost of Major U.S. Wars”; Congressional Research Service Report (RS22926): 24.07.2008. http://www.history.navy.mil/library/online/costs_of_major_us_wars.htm

23 U.S. News & World Report: “U.S. Population, 2009: 305 Million and Counting”; U.S. News & World Report: 31.12.2008. http://www.usnews.com/articles/opinion/2008/12/31/us-population-2009-305-million-and-counting.html

24 Nolan, Doug: “Debt Trap”; Credit Bubble Bulletin/Prudent Bear: 06.11.2008. http://www.prudentbear.com//index.php/creditbubblearchivedisplay?art_id=10149

25 Pittman, M., Ivry, B, & Fitzgerald, A.: “Fed Defies Transparency Aim in Refusal to Disclose”; Bloomberg: 10.11.2008. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOngFPgq7r3M

26 Wutkowsky, Karey: “Fox Business sues Fed for information on bailouts”; Reuters: 12.01.2009. http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1235009220090112

27 Willoughby, Jack: “The Lessons of the Savings-and-Loan Crisis”; Barron’s: 11.04.2009. http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123940701204709985.html?page=sp

28 McAvity, Ian: “Deliberations on world markets”; IRIS Ltd: Vol. 37, No 8, pp. 3, 28.01.2009.

29 Nocera, Joe: “So When Will Banks Give Loans?” New York Times: 25.10.2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/business/25nocera.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=business&adxnnlx=1225573836-P4AC/5+GMKdbpCJdiBKrVA

30 Enrich, David, Crittenden, Michael R., & Tamman, Maurice: “Bank Lending Keeps Dropping”; The Wall Street Journal: 20.04.2009. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124019360346233883.html

31 Younglai, Rachelle & Wutkowski, Karey: “U.S. nears mark-to-market accounting guidance”; Reuters: 11.03.2009. http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE52A55920090311

32 Hale, Clive: “Debtor’s Prison”; FullerMoney Daily Comment: 30.04.2009.  http://www.fullermoney.com

33 McTeague, Jim: “Marking Down Honest Accounting”; Barron’s: 04.04.2009. http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123879929537288311.html

34 Norris, Floyd: “Troubled Bank Loans Hit a Record High”; The New York Times: 29.05.2009. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/30/business/economy/30charts.html?_r=1

35 Weil, Jonathan: “Wells Fargo’s Profit Looks Too Good to Be True”; Bloomberg: 16.04.2009.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6sv0hG.nW7g#

36 Welsh, James E.: “The Financial Commentator on the Economy”; Welch Money Management: Vol. 5, Issue 28, 04.05.2009. (subscription required) http://www.welshmoneymanagement.com

37 Hussman, John P., PhD: “On the Urgency of Restructuring Bank and Mortgage Debt, and of Abandoning Toxic Asset Purchases”; Hussman Funds: 30.03.2009. http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc090330.htm

38 Saulny, Susan: “Banks Starting to Walk Away on Foreclosures”; The New York Times: 29.03.2009. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/30/us/30walkaway.html?_r=4&th&emc=th

39 Rosenberg, David A.: “North America: Morning Market Memo”; Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: pp. 6, 06.04.2009.  http://www.ml.com

40 Mady, Levente: “BondWorks”; Institutional Advisors: 09.06.2009. http://www.insitutionaladvisors.com 

41 Bush, George W: “Fact Sheet: America’s Ownership Society; Expanding Opportunities”; White House Press Release: 08/09/04. http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/08/20040809-9.html

42 The father of modern fiat currency abuse. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Law_(economist)

43 Quinn, James: “The Great Consumer Crash of 2009”; Prudent Bear: 19.08.2008. http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/guestcommentary?art_id=10098

44 Norris, Floyd: “Troubled Bank Loans Hit a Record High”; The New York Times: 29.05.2009. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/30/business/economy/30charts.html?_r=1

45 Quinn, James: “The Great Consumer Crash of 2009”; Prudent Bear: 19.08.2008. http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/guestcommentary?art_id=10098

46 Forsyth, Randall W.: U.S.Wealth Plunges—Before Madoff Scam”; Barron’s: 13.12.2008. http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122912490384002951.html?mod=djemWR

47 Welsh, James E.: “The Financial Commentator on the Economy”; Welch Money Management: Vol. 5, Issue 28, 04.05.2009. (subscription required) http://www.welshmoneymanagement.com

48 Mutikani, Lucia: “U.S. manufacturing shrinks at slower pace in May”; Reuters: 01.06.2009.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090601/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_5

49 Kaletsky, Anatole: “Market fundamentalism took us close to disaster in 2008”; The Times: 29.12.2008. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5409126.ece

50 Economist Intelligence Unit (not attributed): “Manning the barricades: Who’s at risk as deepening economic distress foments social unrest”; The Economist: pp.6, March 2009. http://a330.g.akamai.net/7/330/25828/20090318195802/graphics.eiu.com/specialReport/manning_the_barricades.pdf

51 Mutikani, Lucia: “U.S. manufacturing shrinks at slower pace in May”; Reuters: 01.06.2009.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090601/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_5

52 Taibbi, Matt: “The Big Takeover”; Rolling Stone: 19.03.2009. http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover/

53 Johnson, Simon: “The Quiet Coup”; The Atlantic: May, 2009. http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice

54 Leising, Matthew & Runningen, Roger: “Brooksley Born ‘Vindicated’ as Swap Rules Take Shape”; Bloomberg: 13.11.2008. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aXcq.r6xLf4g&refer=home

55 Abbottt, Charles & Drawbaugh, Kevin: “U.S. regulators seek OTC derivatives crackdown”; Reuters: 13.05.2009. http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090513/bs_nm/us_financial_derivatives_5
 

56 Whalen, Christopher: “Statement to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, Subcommittee on Securities, Insurance, and Investment”; pp. 10, June 22, 2009. http://banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=1f354557-7b1f-4ffd-9014-e80435bc55b8

57 Willoughby, Jack: “The Lessons of the Savings-and-Loan Crisis”; Barron’s: 11.04.2009. http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123940701204709985.html?page=sp

58 Crittenden, Michael R.: “House Panel to Probe BofA’s Merrill Deal”; The Wall Street Journal: 07.05.2009. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124165134448493413.html

59 Crittenden, Michael R. & Fitzpatrick, Dan: “Lewis Takes Heat but Defends Merrill Deal”; The Wall Street Journal: 12.06.2009. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124472321695405977.html

60 Ibid.

61 Farrell, Greg & Braithwaite, Tom: “Bernanke e-mail claim in Merrill sale saga”; The Financial Times: 11.06.2009. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3fb98672-5614-11de-ab7e-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1

62 Taibbi, Matt: “The Big Takeover”; Rolling Stone: 19.03.2009. http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover/

63 Loser, Claudio M.: “Global Financial Turmoil and Emerging Market Economies: Major contagion and a shocking loss of wealth?”; Asian Development Bank: pp. 7, March 2009. http://www.adb.org/media/Articles/2009/12818-global-financial-crisis/Major-Contagion-and-a-shocking-loss-of-wealth.pdf

64 Mogato, Manny: “Global financial market loses $50 trln—ADB study”; Reuters: 09.03.2009. http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSMAN46777220090309

65 This concept was originally raised in 2006 in discussions with John Trudgian, our business partner and Managing Partner, Austral-Asia, for the Williams Inference Service.  http://www.williamsinference.com

© 2009 Copyright Richard Karn / ETR - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules