Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Coronavirus: UK Parents Demand ALL Schools OPEN September, 7 Million Children Abandoned by Teachers - 9th Aug 20
Computer GPU Fans Not Spinning Quick FIX - Sticky Fans Solution - 9th Aug 20
Find the Best Speech Converter for You - 9th Aug 20
Silver Bull Market Update - 7th Aug 20
This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story - 7th Aug 20
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun - 7th Aug 20
Know About Lotteries With The Best Odds Of Winning - 7th Aug 20
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Stock Market Rally Running Out of Time

Stock-Markets / Articles Sep 25, 2009 - 10:52 AM GMT

By: MarketTimingCycles


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe are running out of time. Time is more important than price. When a cycle top or bottom is due the Stock Market will turn regardless if price targets have been reached.

Now we are approaching the top of a crest to be expected to unfold around mid to end of September 2009. I have a bias for September 28/29th as at that point gravity is at the lowest point in the year and Mercury turns direct. This is why the stock market has been ascending so long, but I guess the influence of gravity could become less and less as we approach September 28th.

How does that work? When gravity is low, there is less pressure on the earth and on the minds of us all, so we feel less depressed and more optimistic, so we take more risks on the stock market.

Gravity is at the highest point around February and March of each year as well. If you get the message, you will see that gravity around that time causes the stock market to reach often their lowest point in the year. Hence, the gravity, due to the Sun, Moon pulling at us, causes a natural seasonality. This causes natural cycles to occur that are very powerful. This even has effects on nature around us.

At September 29th, 2009 Mercury, now in retrograde mode (as if moving away from earth). goes direct again(moving towards earth).

Mercury effects commerce and the communications, negotiations around it thus preventing clear messages coming through to investors; hence more fluctuations on the stock market as we perceive to receive mixed messages. During a retrograde mode the stock markets fluctuates more often, and going direct again the stock markets usually changes direction as well. Within a span of 8 days there is a great probability  of a greater cycle crest to unfold, for which we have been waiting for. 

So, this all means we are close to the top of the Elliott wave C of 4 of some degree. The top could already have been set in, but there are still scenario’s to consider a last wave could be possible to finish of the corrective pattern or counter trend.

The counter trend usually unfolds in a simple zigzag and abc format. See below (still) preferred scenario.

Reviewing this scenario it seems that this scenario in time does not really fit the price and time targets to be expected end of September. We need far more time to unfold wave C of 4 in this scenario.

There is however an alternative scenario to consider: a double zigzag. This better fits with the observation that the market is struggling.

Resistance from the larger trend is preventing to form a clear impulsive wave. Hence more corrective sub waves are formed.  Look at the alternative scenario below.

This alternative scenario, seriously should be taken into consideration. The pattern still could unfold in a 5 wave completing wave C of Y and completing the double zigzag at the expected time target.

From a cycle point of view, we are approaching the crest of some dominant cycles. Have a look at below analysis on the dominant medium term cycles.

The composite trend (shown in red), composed out of 4 dominant medium term cycles, is already turning suggesting the top has been set in.

However this was also the case in May/June this year, while the stock market kept on going ascending before turning down and form a sideways pattern staring in May.

If you review the current mode the cycles are in, one of the cycles could still cause the stock market to form a last wave. This could be a higher high, but due to the other cycles it also could cause the stock market to form a double top at the recent high or just below it.

The longer term dominant cycle is still due at the end of September +- 1 trading week. There is a high probability this cycle will start a new cycle wave downwards any time from now. This cycle forms a Fibonacci relationship of 144 days between highs and lows in the market after which the market turns. It is usually spot on within 1 week. The Bartels test shows a very significant correlation of this cycle to repeat in the future. (I will post more on this during the weekend). Have a look at below analysis. 

This dominant cycle tells me, we are right in the middle of the time span this cycle could turn direction. If our analysis is right we are clearly running out of time towards ds the time target of September 28th/29th 2009 +- 1 trading week.

Combining the Elliott wave scenario’s with the cycle scenario’s mentioned in this article there is a high probability the market will turn anytime from now, if not already done. There is no guarantee, as anomalies can happen the Stock market distorting the cycles for some time.

Don’t jump after it, if the market already turned, it usually will bounce back first on a second wave, before really turning south. You do not want to be caught in that retracement. Take care!

We will be posting more stock market analysis for our selective group of subscribers through our postings on If you want to be kept up-to-date on our cycle research and stock market commentaries please subscribe to our newsletter below now.

Join a group of select individuals and subscribe to our newsletter here and we will put you on our mailing-list. We respect your privacy. We don’t sell, rent or share your name or email address.

© 2001-2009

This article is not part of a paid subscription service. It is a free service and is aimed to educate and demonstrate the successful application of cycle analysis. At no time will specific security recommendations or advice be given. Whilst the information herein is expressed in good faith, it is not guaranteed. A trading system that never makes mistakes does not exist. Error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Trade at your own risk. Read our full disclaimer.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules