Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Buying Levels Q2 2020 - 1st Jun 20
M2 Velocity Collapses – Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up? - 1st Jun 20
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum - 1st Jun 20
AMD 3900XT, 3800XT, 3600XT Refresh Means Zen 3 4000 AMD CPU's Delayed for 5nm Until 2021? - 1st Jun 20
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like TRADE.com are the Future of Trading - 1st Jun 20
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Goldman Sachs, Hazardous to Underweight Brazil, But Hold the Big Mac

Stock-Markets / Brazil Oct 27, 2009 - 06:12 PM GMT

By: Trader_Mark

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDespite a 73% increase in the Bovespa this year and the country raising taxes to try to keep out an avalanche of Western central bank liquidity [Oct 20, 2009: Ben Bernanke's Money Printing Parade Forces Brazil to Slap a Tax on Outside Investors], Goldman Sachs still says the shares are cheap.  Certainly if EPS can grow 40%+ next year they might have a point, and who can argue against the fact this is one of the most attractive markets in the world.


Via Bloomberg
  • Brazilian stocks are inexpensive even after a 73 percent rally for the Bovespa index this year and cutting allocations may be “hazardous” for investors, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. “Forward valuations suggest it is hazardous to be underweight Brazil,” Stephen Graham, a Sao Paulo-based analyst wrote in a note to clients. “Brazilian sovereign risk and interest rates are at or near record lows, while prospects for sustainable economic growth are possibly better than at any period in the last few decades.” 
  • The Bovespa may top 85,000 by the middle of next year, he wrote. That represents a 31 percent gain from the close on Oct. 23. The index trades at 16.5 times estimated earnings, compared with 17.16 times for the MSCI Latin America Index, according to Bloomberg data. 
  • Earnings per share will likely grow 46 percent next year and 23 percent in 2011, meaning that forward valuations will remain steady even as the index climbs to 85,000, Graham wrote. 

We often cite the credit expansion in both Asia and South America, but the analyst makes an interesting demographic point as well.  As he has we mentioned the potential infrastructure upgrades coming from both the 2014 World Cup, and 2016 Olympics - although those are obvious quite long term benefits, not necessarily short term stimuli.  [Oct 2, 2009: Brazil Rallies Upon Winning 2016 Olympics]

  • A “baby boom” in the 1980s means consumers in their 20s are now entering the market with “credit volumes never before available,” driving up demand in Brazil’s domestic market, he wrote. 
  • The growth of the population may lift Brazil to the world’s third-biggest market for computers and telephones next year, Graham wrote. the country’s “financial stability” has led to 77 percent growth in bank accounts over seven years and 18 percent growth in the number of credit cards since 2001, the strategist wrote. 
  • Preparations for the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympic Games will likely speed up financing for needed infrastructure projects, Graham wrote. Brazil is seeing “some of the largest build-outs in the world underway in power transmission, pipelines, hydropower, and telecom,” as global attention from the sporting events puts pressure on the government to accelerate the pace of construction, he wrote. 
  • Latin America’s biggest economy is also at an advantage to other commodity-producing nations because it sells to “fast- growing” China instead of relying on sales to slower-growing markets in the U.S. and Europe, Graham wrote.  


However, in unfortunate news (at least for American visitors to Brazil) the real's appreciation (see Ben Bernanke's campaign above) has made a Big Mac an expensive proposition
  • The Brazilian real’s 34 percent, world-beating rally this year pushed up the price of a Big Mac in Sao Paulo above that in New York and London, a measure that would indicate the currency is overvalued. 
  • Buying McDonald’s Corp.’s flagship hamburger costs 8 reais in Sao Paulo, or $4.62, compared with $3.99 in New York and 2.29 pounds in the U.K. capital, or $3.74.  
  • While President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Finance Minister Guido Mantega say the currency’s strength threatens exports and jobs and imposed a tax last week to curb the gains, analysts such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Paulo Leme says the real will continue to appreciate.

By Trader Mark

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com

Mark is a self taught private investor who operates the website Fund My Mutual Fund (http://www.fundmymutualfund.com); a daily mix of market, economic, and stock specific commentary.

See our story as told in Barron's Magazine [A New Kind of Fund Manager] (July 28, 2008)

© 2009 Copyright Fund My Mutual Fund - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules