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After Strong U.S. GDP, Markets Look to Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Consumer Confidence

Economics / Economic Recovery Oct 30, 2009 - 02:24 AM GMT

By: Lloyds_TSB


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFollowing stronger-than-market-expected US gdp data yesterday (figures met our projections), the financial markets are likely to see-saw as usual today. US data releases will dominate today as well, with personal income, spending, the price deflator, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer confidence due out. With gdp figures for Q3 showing a rise in consumer spending of 3.4% annualised, the likelihood is that personal spending for September may not fall as much as the consensus suggests, though income may well stay flat.

As for the price deflator, with a smaller than expected outturn for the Q3 price index (0.8% compared with a predicted rise of 1.4%) there is a chance that it will come in lower than expected. Our forecast suggests a rise of 0.1% against a consensus of 0.2% for September. The figures will add support to the view that the US economy is coming out of recession faster than in the other top industrialised countries and in a sustainable way, though we think that the monthly data flow imply that economic growth in Q4 will be weaker than it was in Q3.

Other releases may show that Canadian gdp growth was unchanged - if 0.1% in August is recorded it would be the same as in July. Japan's interest rate was unchanged at 0.1% this morning. The fall in domestic prices and the fragile state of the public finances will keep interest rates on hold there for some considerable time. Figures for the eurozone, France and Germany will show inflation is still low (EU-16), unemployment continues to edge up (EU-16) but sales growth sees a weak pick up from lows (Germany).

Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets Economic Research

For more information: Emile Abu-Shakra Manager, Media Relations Lloyds TSB Group Media Relations Tel 020 7356 1878

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