Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Is the Debt Fuelled Economic Recovery Sustainable?

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009 Oct 31, 2009 - 06:27 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. Economy bounced backed strongly in the third quarter, following Euro-zone second quarter recovery which is not so surprising given the amount of debt fuelled economic stimulus spending. Britain lags behind awaiting its bounce back in the fourth quarter due to the relative size of its financial sector.


Is the economic recovery sustainable ? Normalisation of the worlds economies from the economic free fall stage implies gradual withdrawal of unprecedented stimulus measures such as zero interest rates, deficit spending and quantitative easing, which means many negative measures will be adopted to fill the fiscal gaps, i.e. spending cuts and tax rises. This implies forward economic weakness for some countries more than others i.e. those that lack a manufacturing base which have basically funneled their stimulus into consumption of overseas manufactured products, which again puts Britain at the top of the list to suffer a double dip recession.

In the immediate future the UK government is going to continue to burn more money into the next general election which will set Britain up for deep second recession during 2011, as out of control perpetual money printing risks an eventual currency crash into hyperinflation so is NOT an option. A lot now hinges on whether the post 2010 election government has the will to put Britain onto a path of REAL economic recovery i.e. will we get a strong Thatcher-esk government or another dithering incompetent Brown-esk government.

Financial Markets

Stock Market volatility surged during the week with wild gyrations pushing stocks to the low for the week which brings the trend to a similar amount in points terms as the earlier down trend into the start of October. Meanwhile the U.S. Dollar clawed its way back above USD 76 keeping the USD bull market scenario alive, whilst Gold ended a little lower on the week, all three trends were inline with last weekends quick analysis. I will cover stocks, gold and the dollar in depth in Sunday's special newsletter as it is not possible to arrive at a quick take on especially stocks and gold. Ensure your subscribed to my free newsletter.

Some good news for Market Oracle readers, we are in the process of securing timely FREE access for our readers to Robert Prechter's premium financial markets forecasting services by mid next week, the details of which we will update by email so again ensure your subscribed to our free newsletter.

The plan is to include, Robert Prechter's Latest Elliott Wave Theorist issue, New Financial Forecasts Issue, and Three issues of his short-term updates. All for FREE without obligation to purchase.

Trading Lesson - Get in Synch with the Market

In our fast paced computer age of easily placed online stop and limit orders across a multitude of markets has meant that traders like never before have removed themselves from the price action where the focus is invariably on the latest indicator, tool or theory to analyse what will happen next rather than spending time actually watching and imprinting the price action in real time onto ones brain.

Not so long ago market charts had to be drawn by hand, this meant that one was forced to stay focused on the price action as it unraveled before one which generates greater FOCUS for one is more in tune or in synch with the market i.e aware of the changing character of the market which can warn of a significant imminent market moves, instead traders today are immersed in countless indicators that distract them from the market price into a state of confusion as if the phrases of convergence and divergence to the price carry's any real meaning, which is ever only clear in hindsight.

I suggest that if you really want to learn to trade then forget about using the computer generated charts, you need to draw these by hand, add trendlines and support resistance levels and nothing more, do this in real time so the most appropriate time frame would be the hourly chart. Yes this means you only trade one market at a time, but that is how it should be!

As you actually watch and interpret price action for your single market in real time, you will gain new insights into its character and changing behaviour and get in synch with the market, something you will not gain from any indicator, all of which distance one from the unfolding price action by introducing far too much complexity in its interpretation. Example of being in synch with the market.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14675.html

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Featured Analysis of the Week

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week :

1. The War on the U.S. Dollar

By: Martin_D_Weiss

Last week, I showed you the most shocking numbers I’ve seen in my lifetime:

Up until the day Lehman Brothers collapsed in September of last year, it took the Fed 5,012 days — 13 years and 8 months — to double the cash currency and reserves in the coffers of U.S. banks.

Read Article

2. The Global Debt Crisis is Destroying the Economic Structure

By: Bob_Chapman

Last week Federal Reserve credit declined $12.9 billion, up 21% yoy. Fed foreign holdings of Treasury/Agency debt rose $4.1 billion to a record $2.865 trillion. Custody holdings for foreign central banks expanded at a 17.5% rate ytd, and yoy 15.2%.

M-2 narrow money supply fell $23.3 billion to $8.341 trillion, that is 5.9% yoy.

Read Article

3. Financial Markets Waiting to Change Direction?

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Britain's Great Depression caught the mainstream commentators and academic economists off guard (again), as the UK economy failed to grow by 0.2% in the third quarter as widely expected but rather contracted by another 0.4%. However the trend remains inline with my analysis and forecast of February 2009 that called for a low in the third quarter of 2009 followed by a small increase in GDP for the fourth quarter of 2009.

Read Article

4. The Elements of Deflation and Surviving Today's Economic Depression

By: John_Mauldin

What's a Fed to do? We get talk about tightening and taking away the easy credit, but we got the fourth largest monetization on record last week. This week we examine the elements of deflation, look at some banking statistics that are not optimistic, and then I write a reply to my great friend Bill Bonner about why it's the best of times to be young. I think you will get a few thought-provoking ideas here and there.

Read Article

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

Here are the newest authors: Jack Schwager, John Murphy, Jake Bernstein, and Ron Ianieri. All experts, all well recognized, and highly trafficked by our current members. http://tv.ino.com/

 

5. Financial Crisis Hidden History, The Warning Frontline Video

By: Michael Kirk

In The Warning, veteran FRONTLINE producer Michael Kirk unearths the hidden history of the nation's worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. At the center of it all he finds Brooksley Born, who speaks for the first time on television about her failed campaign to regulate the secretive, multitrillion-dollar derivatives market whose crash helped trigger the financial collapse in the fall of 2008.

Read Article

6. Civilisation Sweeping Towards Destruction, Economics Needs Moral Courage

By: LewRockwell

It must be really painful to be an economist of the mainstream today, or, at least, it should smart to some extent. In a financial and economic calamity of the current scale, people naturally want to know who issued the warnings about the real estate bubble and its likely aftermath.

Read Article

7. Financial Markets Wedge Patterns Everywhere Means All Stocks May Sink

By: Garry_Abeshouse

This is a follow on to my October 13th 2009 posting , British Pound A Major Disaster Just Waiting to Happen? and my market update on October 19th, and deals with the markets as they stood as of last trade Friday October 23rd.

Read Article

Subscription

You're receiving this Email because you've registered with our website.

How to Subscribe

Click here to register and get our FREE Newsletter

About: The Market Oracle Newsletter


The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Newsletter and online publication.
(c) 2005-2009MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - The Market Oracle asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team. Any and all information provided within this newsletter is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided in this newsletter. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. ( Market Oracle Ltd , Registered in England and Wales, Company no 6387055. Registered office: 226 Darnall Road, Sheffield S9 5AN , UK )


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

John Bingham
01 Nov 09, 10:14
Question for Nadeem Walayat

Nadeem your thoughts on the markets have been very interesting, not to mention prescient, over the past few months.

I do however struggle to reconcile your multi year bull market thesis with the apparent end of the super credit cycle which drove the jobless recoveries in 91 and 03. There is a strong argument that growth our of debt is seriously impaired for now which begs the question where does the bull come from. Is it simply an expression of inflation?


Nadeem_Walayat
01 Nov 09, 11:14
Stealth bull market

HI

I am working on an update, will send out in a few hours.

I focus on the technicals, the fundemntals are only clear in hindsight.

Remember March when we were told stocks could not rally because of corporate earnings forecasts and that the low would come in early 2010. What happened ?

NW


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules