Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Dow Short-term Stock Market Trend Analysis - 6th Mar 21
Intel Rocket Lake EXPLODE on Launch - 11th Gen CPU's RUN VERY HOT Bad Cinebench R20 Scores - 6th Mar 21
US & UK Head for Post Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown Inflationary Economic BOOM - 6th Mar 21
FED Balance Sheet Current State - 5th Mar 21
The Global Vaccine Race Against Time and Variants - 5th Mar 21
US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger A Crazy Ivan Event (Again) In Stock Market - 5th Mar 21
After Gold’s Slide, What Happens to Miners? - 5th Mar 21
Racism Pandemic Why UK Black and Asians NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 BAME - 5th Mar 21
Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021 - 4th Mar 21
Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? - 4th Mar 21
The Top Technologies That Are Transforming the Casino Industry - 4th Mar 21
How to Get RICH Crypto Mining Bitcoin, Ethereum With NiceHash - 4th Mar 21
Coronavirus Pandemic Vaccines Indicator Current State - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations Explained - 3rd Mar 21
Stock Market Bull Trend in Jeopardy - 3rd Mar 21
New Global Reserve Currency? - 3rd Mar 21
Gold To Monetary Base Ratio Says No Hyperinflation - 3rd Mar 21
US Fed Grilled about Its Unsound Currency, Digital Currency Schemes - 3rd Mar 21
The Case Against Inflation - 3rd Mar 21
How to Start Crypto Mining Bitcoins, Ethereum with Your Desktop PC, Laptop with NiceHash - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing Portfolio Buying Levels and Valuations 2021 Explained - 2nd Mar 21
There’s A “Chip” Shortage: And TSMC Holds All The Cards - 2nd Mar 21
Why now might be a good time to buy gold and gold juniors - 2nd Mar 21
Silver Is Close To Something Big - 2nd Mar 21
Bitcoin: Let's Put 2 Heart-Pounding Price Drops into Perspective - 2nd Mar 21
Gold Stocks Spring Rally 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
Covid-19 Vaccinations US House Prices Trend Indicator 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
How blockchain technology will change the online casino - 2nd Mar 21
How Much PC RAM Memory is Good in 2021, 16gb, 32gb or 64gb? - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis - 26th Feb 21
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls - 26th Feb 21
Kiss of Life for Gold - 26th Feb 21
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market - 26th Feb 21
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 - 26th Feb 21
The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues - 25th Feb 21
Vaccine inequality: A new beginning or another missed opportunity? - 25th Feb 21
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out - 25th Feb 21
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! - 25th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! - 25th Feb 21
Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater - 25th Feb 21
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply - 25th Feb 21
US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) - 24th Feb 21
Should You Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? - 24th Feb 21
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! - 24th Feb 21
M&A Most Commonly Used Software - 24th Feb 21
Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? - 24th Feb 21
VUZE XR Camera 180 3D VR Example Footage Video Image quality - 24th Feb 21
How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options - 24th Feb 21
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? - 24th Feb 21
2 Stocks That Could Win Big In The Trillion Dollar Battery War - 24th Feb 21
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 - 23rd Feb 21
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals - 23rd Feb 21
7 Things Every Businessman Should Know - 23rd Feb 21
For Stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped? - 23rd Feb 21
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? - 23rd Feb 21
Precious Metals Under Seige? - 23rd Feb 21
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review - 23rd Feb 21
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply - 23rd Feb 21
Stock Markets Discounting Post Covid Economic Boom - 22nd Feb 21
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard - 22nd Feb 21
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle - 22nd Feb 21
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? - 22nd Feb 21
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? - 22nd Feb 21
How to Test NEW and Used GPU, and Benchmark to Make sure it is Working Properly - 22nd Feb 21
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator - 21st Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat - 21st Feb 21
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? - 21st Feb 21
Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets - 21st Feb 21
Great Investment Ideas For 2021 - 21st Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Financial Markets Waiting to Change Direction?

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009 Oct 25, 2009 - 08:14 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBritain's Great Depression caught the mainstream commentators and academic economists off guard (again), as the UK economy failed to grow by 0.2% in the third quarter as widely expected but rather contracted by another 0.4%. However the trend remains inline with my analysis and forecast of February 2009 that called for a low in the third quarter of 2009 followed by a small increase in GDP for the fourth quarter of 2009.


July's analysis (Engineering a Strong UK Economic Recovery into a May 2010 General Election ) suggested that a lower starting base for the economy sets up for a stronger statistical economic recovery into a May 2010 General Election as 1st quarter 2010 data is released during late April 2010 and revised yet higher during May 2010. That an unemployment starting to converge towards my lower unemployment target of 2.60 million by April 2010 rather than the 3.2 million mainstream view that will likely be revised lower in the coming months.

The bankster's that caused the Economic Pearl Harbour have been completely and utterly let off the hook by inept, incompetent mainstream politicians that are still more interested in seeking to maximise the amount they can defraud tax payers of in expenses, the price for which is being paid in Britain by the rise of the far-right which has risen in support from 3% of the electorate to about 8% today. During the week the far-right were given airtime on the BBC flagship political debate programme Question Time. Britains Great Double Dip Depression ensures the next few years are going to be tough both economically and socially as governments fight to prevent the OTC Derivatives Pyramid from Imploding into Financial Armageddon.

Financial Markets

The Dow, Gold, U.S. Dollar and Crude Oil all ended little changed on the week.

The Dow has given a strong performance from the March bear market lows confounding relentless bearish commentary that saw every dip as the start of THE CRASH!, and Gold which remains hinged to the outcome of the U.S. Dollar that still clings on by its finger nails to the earlier bull market scenario, though which implies an inter market relationship that says a higher dollar 'should' result in gold and stock market weakness, as ever timing will be in the detail especially as Octobers stock market correction was much weaker than expected, about half that which was required to correct the preceding advance to the 9,750 target which has not put the subsequent break above 10,000 on a particularly strong footing, therefore I remain skeptical of the current phase of the stocks bull market rally being sustainable, more on this on in depth analysis in the coming days.

Trading Lesson - Forecasting and Trading

Over time one learns the important difference between forecasting, which is scenario building and trading, which is reacting to price movements in real time. Why forecast ?

There is the incentive to stay attuned with the market mentally because the act of trading is not intellectually stimulating it is more akin to repetitive action akin to a martial art or sport where practice rules supreme, whereas forecasting is intellectually stimulating and aimed at giving insight into the mega-trends against which major corrections, even bear markets (with hedging) can be ridden out i.e. the peak oil mega-trend, the climate change mega trend, the population growth mega trend impact on agri-food's, the fresh water mega-trend and the emerging asian middle class mega-trend on consumer consumption and innovation. Therefore the primary purpose of forecasting is to arrive at a firm conclusion in the present that enables one to commit to a trend without which all we would be doing is looking back at what has happened and wishing we had par-taken in a particular investment trend.

However those that blindly believe their forecasts to be absolute after the fact i.e. even if they are going belly up are setting themselves up for an inevitable fall, as all forecasts at the end of the day are only educated best guesses at a particular point in time and must have a mechanism to negate the scenario's. Ironically recognising this fact can lead to the generation of more accurate forecasts as one is not psychologically committed to ones forecasts which is the downfall of many analysts that cling on to trends that have long since been negated by price action as we have observed this year with the stocks bull market rally, which IF a new bear market soon starts will conveniently be erased from the record.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14488.html

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Featured Analysis of the Week

Financial Crisis Hidden History, The Warning Frontline Video- 25th Oct 09 -Michael Kirk
The Global Debt Crisis is Destroying the Economic Structure- 24th Oct 09 -Bob_Chapman
The Elements of Deflation and Surviving Today's Economic Depression- 24th Oct 09 -John_Mauldin
U.S. Faces Second Lost Economic Decade Because of Misguided Stimulus- 23rd Oct 09 -Mike_Shedlock
Risk and Uncertainty Implications for Economic Forecasting- 22nd Oct 09 -Peter_G_Klein
The Lost History Of Helmand Afghanistan- 21st Oct 09 -Adam Curtis

U.S. Dollar Attacked by Central Bank Lilliputians Profting From the Carry Trade- 21st Oct 09 -Jim_Willie_CB
Exploding U.S. National Debt Means Bye Bye Miss American Pie- 21st Oct 09 -James_Quinn
Has Gold Confirmed Weekly Breakout?- 21st Oct 09 -Bill_Downey

CREDIT & CREDIBILITY is the Emerging Trends Report's comprehensive assessment of today's financial turmoil

Copenhagen 2009 and the Stock Markets- 20th Oct 09 -Richard_Shaw
Zero Discount Value of Gold and Dethroning the U.S. Dollar- 20th Oct 09 -Michael_S_Rozeff
Zen Lessons in Market Analysis, Trading and Forecasts- 20th Oct 09 -John_Mauldin

Warning - Financial Crisis Not Over!

Saving the U.S. Dollar and Bearish Gold Volume- 19th Oct 09 -Ronald_Rosen
Goldman Sachs Earnings and Bonuses, Where's the Outrage?- 19th Oct 09 -Mike_Shedlock
U.S. Treasury Controlled by Wall Street- 19th Oct 09 -Bob_Chapman
The Ultimate Analysis Handbook - FREE
Geo-Strategic Chessboard Pushing India Towards War With China- 19th Oct 09 -Mahdi_D_Nazemroaya
WaMu Insider Trading and Naked Short Selling- 19th Oct 09 -Mike_Stathis
Debt Spiral Financial Holocaust Fiat Currencies Zero Bound, the Next Down Leg - 18th Oct 09 -Ty_Andros

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week :

1. Exploding U.S. National Debt Means Bye Bye Miss American Pie

By: James_Quinn

Don McLean was born in 1945 and grew up in New Rochelle, New York. He was one of the earliest Baby Boomers. He was born at the beginning of America’s last High, as described by Strauss & Howe in their book The Fourth Turning. America’s victory in World War II began a new 80 to 100 year cycle consisting of four turnings of 20 to 25 years. The four cycles are a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling and a Crisis. These cycles have been recurring throughout history due to the generational mood changes as people age.

Read Article

2. WaMu Insider Trading and Naked Short Selling

By: Mike_Stathis

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a piece discussing allegations of insider trading and illegal naked short selling of Washington Mutual, involving the banking cartel and potentially their hedge fund clients.

In this piece, I provided a link to the SEC complaint I submitted on October 7, 2008.

Read Article

3. Debt Spiral Financial Holocaust Fiat Currencies Zero Bound, the Next Down Leg

By: Ty_Andros

The demise of the G7 financial systems, currencies and economies continues to march along as incomes collapse.  The social welfare states and their banking system’s Ponzi finance-based economies are BROKE, their obligations and promises irredeemable and unpayable.

A debt spiral is in full view, irreversible with policymakers unable or unwilling and opposed to making the changes required to CREATE PRIVATE SECTOR INCOME GROWTH and control SPENDING, and which must be done to avert the final CALAMITY.

Read Article

4. Geo-Strategic Chessboard Pushing India Towards War With China

By: Mahdi_D_Nazemroaya

Since 1947, India has not fully pledged itself to any camp or global pole during the Cold War and as a result was a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement (N.A.M.). Since the post-Cold War era that position has eroded. New Delhi has been gradually moving away from its traditional position, relationships, and policies in the international arena for over a decade.

Read Article

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

Here are the newest authors: Jack Schwager, John Murphy, Jake Bernstein, and Ron Ianieri. All experts, all well recognized, and highly trafficked by our current members. http://tv.ino.com/

 

5. U.S. Dollar Attacked by Central Bank Lilliputians Profting From the Carry Trade

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The US Federal Reserve continues to talk about their urgent Exit Strategy. My theory is they will be doing mostly talking and almost no doing. The nations that talk the least will be hiking interest rates the most, like Australia. The United States might be dead last in hiking interest rates. The credibility of the USFed will in the process continue to be harmed much more than already, which is rock bottom. The Dollar Carry Trade and the lost Petro-Dollar advantage will work to destroy the USDollar as the global reserve currency. The USFed will have to resort to unusual means to keep the world ‘interested’ and ‘involved’ in the USDollar at all. When they lose interest and involvement, the US$ will descend into the Third World. The USDollar will then be forced to find its true value, based on its own merit.

Read Article

6. If Bernake Doesn’t Raise The Fed Interest Rate Very Soon There Will Be BIG Trouble

By: Andrew_Butter

The debate about whether it was Alan Greenspan’s “fault” will continue for generations, the “other side” summed up their position nicely in a quip that came up in the debate about whether to let the Fed have more power, “ That’s like buying your teenager a sports car after he wreaked the family saloon”.

Read Article

7. Gerald Celente, Their is NO Economic Recovery, It's A COVERUP

By: Submission

Video - Interview With Gerald Celente

Their is No Economic Recovery-Its A Cover-up

Read Article

Subscription

You're receiving this Email because you've registered with our website.

How to Subscribe

Click here to register and get our FREE Newsletter

About: The Market Oracle Newsletter


The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Newsletter and online publication.
(c) 2005-2009MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - The Market Oracle asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team. Any and all information provided within this newsletter is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided in this newsletter. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. ( Market Oracle Ltd , Registered in England and Wales, Company no 6387055. Registered office: 226 Darnall Road, Sheffield S9 5AN , UK )


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Shiva
27 Oct 09, 18:46
Dow Jones Predictions

I agree with you that we have gone too far too fast. But for the past month, the rise has not been a clear one (like July/August), instead it has been making ups and downs but with higher lows and higher highs.

Can't this just be a consolidation to the next move up? Based on earnings and current news I don't see what can trigger a sudden sell-off.

Do you see Dow going up again like in May?


Nadeem_Walayat
27 Oct 09, 20:38
Stocks correction

Hi

The correction was too mild, I would not be surprised if we see a lower low i.e. break the correction low, which ironically would be a sign of strength!


Kumar
28 Oct 09, 19:41
Your analysis on DOW & GBP

Dear Nadeem: Looking forward for your great analysis of US markets & GBP currency too.

I am visiting your site for your article every single day.

Thanks & Best Regards,

Kumar


Nadeem_Walayat
29 Oct 09, 09:40
Trading

Hi Kumar

been busy trading, not had the time to peform any analysis.

It takes several hours to arrive at a conclusion, so will have to be done during the weekend / emailed out sunday.

Best.

NW


Mo
01 Nov 09, 01:29
Where are the markets heading?

Hi Nadeem,

As always, excellent analysis.

Your forecast of the stealth bull market in Q1 and Q2 was impressive to say the least. I wish I had the courage to aggressively buy and hold for a few months during that time, I would have made a fortune! Still day trading and quick swing trades did give good returns.

What’s your take on the major sell off that took place in the US on Friday. The selling pressure was so strong and there was no buying to support it whatsoever! The overall tone has also changed in the media and the so-called financial analysts are advising people to sell

Where are we heading in Q4? Do you think the correction will be brutal or a normal pull back before resuming the rise back up? The biggest pull back we have seen so far was only 7%, so what do think will happen this time? We are already 6% down on the S&P and around 5% on the DOW?

Also what’s your take on the US market in the first half of 2010 will it resume growth or do you believe in the W-shaped double dip recession? I find it hard to believe that we will go back to the March lows anytime soon. I feel we are in the beginning of a new business cycle and it will take a few years before we experience a similar meltdown. I just hate the all doom and gloom analysts/economists like Roubini and Mark Faber. I feel they only want to make a lot of noise in the market by inducing fear – of course get free publicity and make money out of it. What do you think?

Finally, do you buy into this hyper-inflation theory? If so, then when do you expect it to happen? Is it a 2010 or so 2011 story? What sort of an impact will it have on stocks, oil and real estate?

Too many questions I know, but you are one of a very few analysts who I truly value their opinion.

Regards,

Mo


Nadeem_Walayat
01 Nov 09, 11:18
stocks where next?

HI

I am working on an update, will email out in a few hours.

I am skeptical of fundemental analysis because its only really useful in hindsight, offcourse by then the market has MOVED!

In March we were told corporate earnigns means no rally until 2010, as I warned to ignore. If you follow fundementals you will always be 6 months behind the market.

Hyperinflation is not visible. Stagflation is.

we are headign for a double dip recession the severity of which is not easy to gauage at this time, but yes it will hit stocks, but I suspect not commodities.

Anyway more on this in my update to complete...

Best

NW


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules