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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Stocks Enter Correction Zone, Gold and Silver Next to Follow?

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009 Nov 21, 2009 - 04:10 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe story of the week was President Obama hopping on a plane to Communist China to learn about Capitalism, the U.S. Bond Market rallied on hopes of an extension to the China funded U.S. overdraft that currently totals $800 billion.


Ever escalating stimulus packages and never ending Quantitative easing sets the scene for Eventually a decade of inflation as my next in depth analysis will cover, a taste of which is here - Deflationists Are WRONG, Prepare for the INFLATION Mega-Trend

Financial Market Trends and Forecasts Update

November 1st's in depth analysis (Stocks, Dollar and Gold Bull Markets Inter-market Analysis) gave updated projections for key markets into the end of 2009 and early 2010 as summarised below:

Gold Targeting $1200 by March 2010, $1350 2010.: $1,150 ($1,046) + 10%

Gold soared and silver played catchup. The target for March is $1200 the current price of $1,150 is well ahead of schedule, on face value this either signals some sort of impending currency crisis, or more probably Gold is short-term overbought and due a correction back through $1,100.

Dow Targeting 10,350 to 10,500 During December 2009 :10,437 (9,712) + 7.5% target achieved.

The Dow hit the mid target range of 10,425 and started a 'normal' correction that continues to target 9950 to 9900 (as per last weekends newsletter).

USD Targeting 84 during December 2009 : 75.61 (76.36) - 1%

The U.S. Dollar eeked out a small gain for the week as it continues to attempt to build a base at 75, with the nearest buy trigger remaining at 77.00.

In Summary, Stocks, Gold and Silver in progress or imminent corrections and awaiting Dollar uptrend confirmation.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15216.html

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Featured Analysis of the Week

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week :

1. United States Economy At Zero Hour To Service Debt Mountain

By: John_Mauldin

Today's Outside the Box comes to us from England. My European partner Niels Jensen from time to time sends me some of the best letters he reads from the hedge fund world. He is an excellent filter for me, and this week's Outside the Box offering is no exception. Below is the November commentary from Eclectica fund manager Hugh Hendry. He challenges the current preoccupation with the falling dollar and China, and posits what would happen if that thinking is wrong? It offers some very thought-provoking ideas.

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2. Stock Market Rally is Worth Shorting Here

By: Alistair_Gilbert

The S&P has been taking no hostages from the onslaught of Bears who have tried shorting it as it has climbed the wall of worry and advanced some 65% since the March lows. So is it worth shorting here at 1095? I am going to present here my evidence as to why I think that it is worth shorting here.

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3. Deflationists Are WRONG, Prepare for the INFLATION Mega-Trend

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The jist of the deflationists argument is that debt deleveraging MUST trigger huge consumer and asset price deflation. Whilst we have all witnessed huge asset price deflation and some consumer price deflation during 2008 and into 2009. However we have also witnessed unprecedented government and central bank actions of this year, which have ignited asset price inflation with more to come that is now starting to feed into consumer price inflation.

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4. Stocks Bull Market Swing Juncture?

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In Britain the big story of the week was concerning Gordon Browns spelling mistakes riddled condolence letter to the mother of a soldier killed in Afghanistan which was publicised vocally by the Sun newspaper and Sky News. However the real story behind this is the brewing war between the mainstream media represented by the likes of Rupert Murdoch's News International and the internet represented by Google which allows access to a near infinite alternative sources of information.

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5. Zinc Dimes, Counterfeit Tungsten Gold and Lost Interest

By: Jim_Willie_CB

In 1964 the USGovt introduced the zinc dimes clad with silver. They at least admitted the debauchery publicly. Now pre-1964 silver coins are all considered different, and valued differently too, higher. Rome committed the same coinage fraud 1900 years ago. Their Empire went bust as the city burned almost concurrently. Ayn Rand is a guiding light for Alan Greenspan, the enabling destroyer of the US banking system, destroyer of the US household archipelago, and dispatcher of the US industrial base to Asia. He is the hero icon worshipped by Wall Street. The irony is thick, that his career was spent following Old Europe orders that delivered the slow motion coup de grace to the American Empire.

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6. If This is Economic Recovery, Where Are the Increased Tax Revenues?

By: John_Mauldin

No one goes into Wal-Mart and asks to pay extra sales tax. Thus sales taxes are reasonable barometers for retail sales. This week we look at how taxes are doing in a period of economic recovery. Then we turn our eyes to a very interesting (and sobering) analysis of possible future unemployment rates. This is an anecdote to the happy-face analysis of employment numbers you get from establishment economists. There will be a lot of charts and tables, so this letter may print a little longer, but I think you will find it very interesting.

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7. Global Warfare, U.S. Military Operations in All Major Regions of the World

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"Not only does one country account for the overwhelming plurality of world military expenditures, but that nation also has troops and bases on all six habitable continents (as well as a 54-year military mission in Antarctica, Operation Deep Freeze) and eleven aircraft carrier strike groups and six navy fleets that roam the world's oceans and seas at will. It is also expanding a global interceptor missile system on land, on sea, in the air and into space that will leave it invulnerable to retaliation."

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8. The New Command Economy Impact on Stocks and Crude Oil

By: Christopher_Wood

One week on and sentiment, judging by meetings with US investors over the past week, has again shifted to the “melt up” into year end. If the failure of the stock market to respond more positively to the last two monthly ISM data points is a cautionary signal, the break out of the oil price in recent weeks after four months of sideways consolidation around the US$70/bbl level is the sort of market action likely to be associated with a “melt up” (see Figure 1). This is because oil is for now a proxy for risk.

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Comments

John Doe
25 Nov 09, 06:44
Dollar collpase..nothing new

Nadeem,

The Dollar just broke down to 74.36...right now it is at 74.54. This isnt the first time it has gone down that low but it has always managed to close at 75. If the dollar index closes within 74 how low could the green back go? Is it time to forget about a dollar rally?

Has S(officially)HTF lol? A long term chart of the dollar shows that it has been heading lower since the 80's. The dollar made a high at 160 in 85. Then it made a low in 92-93 at around 80. It rallied again to 120 in 00-01. Now with all this STHF, the dollar is in serious TROUBLE. Anyone that has been watching the longterm charts of the dollar index would know that the dollar has been heading lower over the years. The thing that I find hilarious about this whole sudden media circus surrounding the dollar is, why didnt the media notice when the dollar was at 71 in 2008?



25 Nov 09, 08:11
US Dollar
Yes, the dollar bull scenerio has been busted. Though it NEVER gave a buy trigger, the closest was at 77. Also my analysis did call the bottom in March 2008 - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4072.html All the best.

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