Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals - 18th July 19
AI Machine Learning PC Custom Build Specs for £2,500 - Scan Computers 3SX - 18th July 19
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Stock Market, Commodity and Dollar Forecasts for 2010

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Dec 30, 2009 - 10:42 AM GMT

By: Tony_Sagami


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePredicting the future is not easy, but at the end of last year I made five for 2009. How’d I do? Pretty darn good if I say so myself.

In this column, I’ll review my 2009 market predictions and more importantly, tell you what’s in store for 2010 and how to play the markets.

2009 Prediction — The U.S. Stock Market Is Headed Lower. A Lot Lower … I don’t believe we’ve seen the last of the exploding, financial time bombs.

What’s more, I expect:

(a) real estate prices will continue falling,

(b) unemployment will continue rising,

(c) our economy will continue contracting, and

(d) our stock market will reflect the deterioration of those long-term, systemic economic woes.

How’d I do? I was absolutely right about more deterioration in real estate, jobs, and the overall economy, but I was dead wrong about the U.S. stock market.

2010 Prediction: I’m sticking with the same prediction for the coming year. The U.S. stock market is more overvalued and headed for a very painful fall.

How to profit: An inverse ETF, such as ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH), is designed to profit from falling stock prices.

2009 Prediction — The U.S. Dollar Is Headed Lower. A Lot Lower … The cost of bailing out our county’s financial institutions alone will be at least $5 trillion. And that’s just the beginning of the trillions of dollars in loans, grants, guarantees, and other programs being cooked up!

Smart international investors do not want to hold what will become devalued dollars. One of the best moves you can make is to diversify into non-dollar denominated assets.

How’d I do? I hit the nail right on the head. The U.S. dollar index through the middle of December is down 4.6% for the year.

While the dollar is overdue for a short-term bounce, the long-term trend is downward for the buck.
While the dollar is overdue for a short-term bounce, the long-term trend is downward for the buck.

2010 Prediction: The dollar is overdue for a short-term bounce, but the factors that killed the dollar in 2009 — runaway government spending and massive trade deficits — haven’t been fixed, so the long-term trend of the dollar is still downward.

How to profit: Merck Hard Currency fund (MERKX) invests in the short-term AAA debt of the world’s economies with the strongest economies and monetary policies.

2009 Prediction — Interest Rates Are Headed Higher. A Lot Higher. Inflation always has been and always will be a monetary phenomenon where too many dollars are chasing too few goods.

Our national debt is $10.6 trillion and going up by $3.49 billion a day. That’s $34,723 in debt for each U.S. citizen. To pay the interest on this debt and finance even more massive bailout plans, the U.S. Treasury Secretary will crank up the government’s printing presses to an unprecedented speed.

How’d I do? Right again. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond started the year at 2.69%, but is now above 4.5%.

2010 Prediction: Interest rates are higher, but they are headed a lot higher. Inflation has yet to rear its ugly head … but it is coming.

How to profit: There are also inverse bond fund that make money when interest rates rise, such as Rydex Juno (RYJUX).

2009 Prediction — Commodity Prices, Including Energy, Will Be Higher 12 Months From Now … I used to spend $100 filling up my full-size SUV, so I appreciate falling energy prices as much as anybody. But I don’t expect low prices to last for long.

The growing emerging-market economies and the other supply/demand factors that sent oil prices to $150 earlier this year remain in force today. Perhaps not at the previous gangbuster pace, but certainly at a pace that is enough to steadily push commodity prices higher over time.

How’d I do? Commodity prices of all kinds were up sharply for the year.

Commodity Prices Soared in 2009!




YTD % Change

































Source: Bloomberg

2010 Prediction: I believe that the commodity boom has a long way yet to run.

How to profit: The Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index ETF (DJP) gives you instant diversification to all categories of commodities.

2009 Prediction — Asian Markets Are Headed Lower. But Will Bounce Like A Superball … I don’t care what part of the world you pick — Europe, North America, South America, or Asia — the short-term outlook is not good.

The long-term outlook varies greatly around the globe. And right now, it’s the brightest in Asia in general, and China in particular, where I expect the rebound to be powerful.

The Chinese economy is a multi-decade story. And there will be plenty of “ten baggers” to be found amidst the beaten down diamonds.

How’d I do? Right again. Through the end of November, the Shanghai Index was up 75% for the year.

2010 Prediction: The Chinese economy is improving … not getting worse, so I expect 2010 to be another great year. Perhaps not 75% great, but look for a strong double-digit return.

How to profit? The simplest way to put some China in your portfolio is to buy the biggest Chinese ETF, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI).

My advice for 2010 is simple:

(1) get out of dollar-denominated assets,

(2) commodities and hard assets are undervalued, and

(3) the fastest growing and best place to invest is in Asia.

Best wishes,


This investment news is brought to you by Uncommon Wisdom. Uncommon Wisdom is a free daily investment newsletter from Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, precious metals, natural resources, Asian and South American markets. From time to time, the authors of Uncommon Wisdom also cover other topics they feel can contribute to making you healthy, wealthy and wise. To view archives or subscribe, visit

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules