Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - 23rd June 19
Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits - 23rd June 19
What You Should Look While Choosing Online Casino - 23rd June 19
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - 22nd June 19
Here’s Why You Should Drive a Piece of Crap Car - 22nd June 19
How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? - 22nd June 19
Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! - 21st June 19
Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur - 21st June 19
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned - 21st June 19
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks - 21st June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - 21st June 19
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt - 21st June 19
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls - 21st June 19
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis - 20th June 19
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart - 20th June 19
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal - 20th June 19
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - 20th June 19
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks - 20th June 19
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally - 20th June 19 -
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero - 20th June 19
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle - 20th June 19
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS - 20th June 19
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19
US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - 16th June 19
Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting - 16th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 16th June 19
Fethiye Market Fruit, Veg, Spices and Turkish Delight Tourist Shopping - 16th June 19
US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis - 15th June 19
Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals - 15th June 19
The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline - 15th June 19
Fire Insurance Claims: What Are the Things a Fire Claim Adjuster Does? - 15th June 19
How To Find A Trustworthy Casino? - 15th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video - 14th June 19
Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! - 14th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video - 14th June 19
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China - 14th June 19
Keeping the Online Gaming Industry in Line - 14th June 19
How Acquisitions Affect Global Stocks - 14th June 19
Please Don’t Buy the Dip in Nvidia or Other Chip Stocks - 14th June 19
A Big Thing in Investor Education is Explainer Videos - 14th June 19
IRAN - The Next American War - 13th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match Contest - 13th June 19
Top Best VPN Services You Can Choose For Your iPhone - 13th June 19
Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair - 13th June 19
US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation - 13th June 19
Which Stocks Will Lead The Cannabis Rebound? - 13th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

2010 Financial Markets and Economic Tipping Point Forecast

Stock-Markets / Great Depression II Jan 05, 2010 - 04:17 PM GMT

By: James_Quinn

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor the last week or two “experts” and pundits have been making their forecasts for 2010. I always take these forecasts with a grain of salt. The people making the forecasts generally have some skin in the game and will tailor their forecast to benefit their particular agenda or investment portfolio. I pride myself on dishing out punishment to both political parties and most investment shills. I will take on the thankless task of predicting the future. Below are my prognostications in the areas of the economy, domestic politics, global geopolitics, and the investment markets.


To date, the Federal Reserve has printed well over a trillion dollars in an attempt to evade a deflationary collapse, including a $700 billion bank bailout and a $787 billion stimulus package. And then there was $3 billion wasted on Cash for Clunkers ($24,000 per vehicle), $28 billion squandered on the $8,500 homebuyer tax credit, and an artificial suppressing of interest rates to 0 percent with $300 billion of mortgage-backed securities purchased by the Federal Reserve and Treasury. And all we’ve received is a 2.2 percent increase in GDP? The fourth quarter of 2009 will show a positive GDP as government spending and Federal Reserve quantitative easing have continued at a rapid clip. As the government stimulus winds down in the first half of 2010, the true weakness of the economy will reveal itself. I expect a double dip recession commencing by June of 2010.

With the economy sinking back into recession, the official unemployment rate will exceed 11 percent by late 2010. The true non-government manipulated figure will approach the Great Depression levels of 25 percent. Over 8 million Americans have lost their jobs since 2007. The side effects from this fact will ripple through the country for years. One quarter of all homeowners in the U.S. is underwater in their mortgages.

A tsunami of Alt-A and Option ARM mortgages will reset in 2010. These two developments will lead to another surge in foreclosures. Despite government attempts to interfere in the market, home prices will fall another 10 percent in 2010. The continued weakness in employment and housing will lead to a further drop in retail sales.

Developers of malls, office buildings, hotels, condos and apartments will pay the piper in 2010. Billions in debt related to projects built in 2005 will need to be refinanced. These properties have dropped 30 percent to 40 percent in value. The continued weakness in retail sales will lead to retail bankruptcies and store closings. Less tenants means less rental income for mall owners. There will be a record number of commercial real estate bankruptcies in 2010. The bulk of these losses will be borne by regional banks. There were 150 bank failures in 2009. The FDIC just announced they would add 1,600 employees in 2010, doubling their work force. There will be 500 bank failures in 2010.

The Federal Budget for 2010 anticipates a $1.5 trillion deficit. I believe the Obama administration will pull out all the stops to boost the economy before the 2010 elections. This means more spending. The 2010 deficit will be closer to $2 trillion. The bond market and foreign buyers will choke on this amount of debt. The result will be much higher interest rates. Ten year Treasuries will start the year at 3.8 percent. By year end, rates will exceed 5 percent. As the world loses confidence in the American economy and leadership, the dollar will fall to new all-time lows falling by another 15 percent. A falling dollar will result in a surge in gold and silver. Gold will break $1,500 an ounce, with silver breaking $20 an ounce. As world demand increases and peak oil becomes acknowledged, oil prices will exceed $100 a barrel further depressing the U.S. economy.

Congress will pass the Obama healthcare plan by the end of January. The outrage will be palpable. Obama will then announce another stimulus program and call it a “jobs program.” This will cost another $200 billion. In February, the government will formally take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These unprecedented reckless interventions in our supposedly free markets will lead to huge Democratic losses in the 2010 Congressional elections. They will lose 50 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate. As the economy deteriorates the stock market will drop by 30 percent in the first half of 2010. After the Republicans regain power in Washington DC, the stock market will rally.

The biggest wildcards in 2010 will come from outside the U.S. The uprisings in Iran are likely to provoke the current leadership to stir up more trouble in Afghanistan and Iraq. The imposition of sanctions by the U.S. could also provoke Iran to lash out against Israel. This region is a powder keg with matches being lit every day. I expect Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities before the end of 2010. Iran’s response will be to disrupt the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. This will bring the U.S. Navy into conflict with Iran. Oil prices will soar when this conflict breaks out. The conflict in Afghanistan will worsen, with more American soldiers losing their lives. Tensions between Pakistan and India will increase as terrorists again attack within India.

Economically, Eastern Europe will crash with Greece, Latvia, and Hungary defaulting on their debt. This will plunge European banks into deeper losses and cause the next leg down in Europe. These foreign risks have the potential to spiral out of control.
You may have noticed that I’m not too optimistic about 2010. Let’s hope I’m wrong.

Join me at www.TheBurningPlatform.com to discuss truth and the future of our country.

By James Quinn

quinnadvisors@comcast.net

James Quinn is a senior director of strategic planning for a major university. James has held financial positions with a retailer, homebuilder and university in his 22-year career. Those positions included treasurer, controller, and head of strategic planning. He is married with three boys and is writing these articles because he cares about their future. He earned a BS in accounting from Drexel University and an MBA from Villanova University. He is a certified public accountant and a certified cash manager.

These articles reflect the personal views of James Quinn. They do not necessarily represent the views of his employer, and are not sponsored or endorsed by his employer.

© 2009 Copyright James Quinn - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

James Quinn Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

molly doran
07 Jan 10, 22:07
doom and gloom

I read you 2010 prediction today and thought "Well written, scaery - but I wonder how his normal view of the world is?" So I looked at all the past titles of your articles. You must live a very sad life as you seem to be eternally pesimestic, gloomy and sour on the outcome of our world today and tomorrow. I have a hard time thinking you enjoy each day - as for years you writing has been so full of despair about all of us. I AM SO SORRY


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules