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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Great Depression II

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, April 25, 2019

If This Pattern Holds True, the US Economy Could Face the Worst Stagnation in History / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

I recently made a case that the Fed’s monetary policy is turning Japanese. Let’s examine how that worked for them.

From one perspective, it has done quite well. From another, they have paid a cost.

Is it worth it? I think many Japanese, likely a big majority, would say yes.

An Economic Miracle?

The Bank of Japan has more than 140% of Japanese GDP on its balance sheet.

Its laws let it buy equities not just in Japan but all over the world and it did. Yet the currency is roughly the same value as it was when the Bank of Japan got busy with that project.

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Politics

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

US Border Adjustment Tax Could Lead to Another Great Depression / Politics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

The border adjustment tax is disruptive by its very nature. (I’m writing a series of articles about the good, the bad, and the ugly of this tax reform in Thoughts from the Frontline. Read Part 1 here).

In their defense, Paul Ryan and House Ways & Means Committee Chair Kevin Brady know everything I just said and probably agree with much of it. They believe the BAT’s negative effects will disappear quickly due to currency flows.

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Economics

Friday, February 03, 2017

Economic Depression, Stagflation, Stag-Depress-Flation / Economics / Great Depression II

By: DeviantInvestor

The United States suffered through a deflationary depression in the 1930s. Stock prices crashed, currency in circulation declined, commodity and real estate prices fell hard and human misery prevailed.

President Roosevelt revalued gold from $20.67 to $35.00 per ounce in 1933 – a substantial devaluation of the dollar. Make-work and government spending programs were implemented. War followed the depression.

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Economics

Monday, December 05, 2016

If Trump Doesn’t Do This, We Will Have the Great Depression 2.0 / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

No matter who won the presidency, the economic way forward was not going to be easy. The Republican team understands they must “stand and deliver.” But as we will see, that is not going to be easy.

I’m going to depart from the normal format, where I talk about the economic realities we face and how we should invest, and instead offer my view of what I think the Trump administration and the GOP-led Congress should do.

But first, let’s look briefly at where we are now—at the constraining facts that any economic proposal must take into consideration.

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Economics

Monday, September 12, 2016

Why the Greater Recession Will be Dollar Bearish / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Michael_Pento

The Great Recession of 2008 provided markets with an interesting irony: As the US economy was collapsing under the weight of crumbling home prices, investors curiously flocked to the US dollar under the guise of “The Safety Trade.” 

But the truth is that investors weren’t running into the dollar for safety, what they were actually doing was unwinding a carry trade. In a carry trade an investor borrows a depreciating currency that offers a relatively low interest rate and uses those funds to purchase an appreciating currency that offers the potential for higher returns on its sovereign debt and stock market. The trade’s objective is to capture the difference between rates, while also benefitting from the currency that is rising in value against the borrowed (shorted) funds.

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Economics

Sunday, September 04, 2016

The Anti-Cinderella Man (Part One) - The Greater Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: James_Quinn

There are several movies I will watch every time they are aired on one of my generally useless 600 cable channels. They all have the same thing in common – a compelling character portrayal which keeps you riveted and mesmerized by how the protagonist deals with adversity and circumstances beyond their control. The movies I can’t resist include: The Godfather I & II, The Green Mile, Shawshank Redemption, Apocalypse Now, and Patton. Another captivating movie, which didn’t do well at the box office, is Cinderella Man. The portrayal of Depression era heavyweight boxing champion James J. Braddock by Russell Crowe is inspirational, with a rousing and improbable victory by the champion of the common man. While watching this great movie a few weeks ago I found myself equating the themes to the current presidential campaign.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 09, 2016

The Fed is About to Trigger Another Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Graham_Summers

It’s literally 1937 all over again.

Many analysts have called for the Fed not to repeat its mistake of 1937.

That mistake?

Raising rates when the economy was already weak. Doing this prolonged the Great Depression.

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Economics

Monday, November 16, 2015

How the Great Depression 2.0 Will Soon Unfold / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Michael_Pento

Those who place their faith in a sustainable economic recovery emanating through government fiat will soon be shocked. Colossal central bank counterfeiting and gargantuan government deficit spending has caused the major averages to climb back towards unchanged on the year. Zero interest rate and negative interest rate policies, along with unprecedented interest rate manipulations, have levitated global stock markets. But still, sustainable and robust GDP growth has been remarkably absent for the past 8 years.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

China, The Great Depressions 1 & 2, and Gold / Commodities / Great Depression II

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

When uncontrolled credit growth results in speculative bubbles, capitalism’s cycles of expansion and contraction end in catastrophic deflationary depressions where large collapsing bubbles result in crippling levels of defaulting debt.

In June-July 2015, the Shanghai stock market retraced the beginning of the end of the historic 1920s US stock bubble whose collapse in 1929 ended in the Great Depression of the 1930s; and while it may appear history is repeating itself, it is not. This time, capital markets will not recover.

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Economics

Friday, October 09, 2015

The Greater Economic Depression Deep State / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Casey_Research

Master speculator and economic expert Doug Casey believes a global financial crisis is just around the corner, which will result in what he has termed the “Greater Depression”...

This essay originally appeared in The Casey Report. In it, Doug details a hidden but powerful force known as the “deep state” that’s ruining the country.

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Economics

Sunday, October 06, 2013

U.S. Economy Heading For Another Economic Slump / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Mike_Whitney

“Slumping asset prices show a recession is probably on its way. … Stocks tend to fall more frequently and further than property values, so they are better recession-predictors.” - IMF research paper by economists John C. Bluedorn, Joerg Decressin and Marco E. Terrones.

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Economics

Sunday, May 05, 2013

The Next Great Economic Depression Has Already Started In Europe / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Submissions

Michael Snyder writes: The next Great Depression is already happening - it just hasn't reached the United States yet. Things in Europe just continue to get worse and worse, and yet most people in the United States still don't get it. All the time I have people ask me when the "economic collapse" is going to happen. Well, for ages I have been warning that the next major wave of the ongoing economic collapse would begin in Europe, and that is exactly what is happening. In fact, both Greece and Spain already have levels of unemployment that are greater than anything the U.S. experienced during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

The Economic Depression Is Deepening / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bill_Bonner

Gold seemed to be stabilizing at the end of last week. Commodities remained weak. Steel has fallen 31% this year. Brent crude is off 17% since early February. And copper is down 15%.

Copper is the metal you need to make almost anything – houses, cars, electronics. When it goes down, it generally means the world economy is getting soft.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 02, 2013

America's Continuing Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: LewRockwell

Seth Mason writes: This is not what economic recovery looks like. This is, however, what an economic depression looks like:

First, the American workforce is far smaller than it was before the 2008 economic collapse, even though the number of Americans of working age has increased by several millions:

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Economics

Sunday, March 03, 2013

Euro Zone New Record Unemployment, U.S. Personal Income Plummets / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Barry_Grey

Economic statistics released this week reflect a further weakening of the world economy and a further fall in the living standards of the international working class.

Reports on unemployment, manufacturing activity, economic growth and personal income in Europe, China and the United States point to an overall slowdown in economic growth and a rise in unemployment and poverty. They coincide with new moves by the European Union and the Obama administration in the US to slash social spending and public-sector jobs and wages. These measures mark an escalation of the class-war policies that have fueled the economic slump and already brought untold suffering to hundreds of millions of workers.

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Economics

Sunday, February 24, 2013

The Keynesian Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

In today’s Outside the Box, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Funds, regales us with the not-always-happy history of Keynesian economics – we did what he said when we had to, but not always when we should have. Shoving fiscal and monetary stimulus down the throat of a recession is well and good, but how about the part where we’re supposed to be fiscally conservative during boom times? “What, raise taxes? No thank you!”

The upshot, as Minerd reminds us, is that “As a result of the constant fiscal support without the tax increases, businesses and households became comfortable operating with continuously higher leverage ratios. The conventional wisdom was that this government backstop could never be exhausted.” Today we are testing that premise to the limit, and not only in the US.

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Economics

Saturday, February 09, 2013

John Williams: How to Survive the Illusion of Economic Recovery / Economics / Great Depression II

By: The_Gold_Report

There is no economic recovery, and there are no signs that a recovery is coming, says Shadowstats.com author John Williams. In this Gold Report interview, he blames mal-adjusted inflation statistics for creating an alternate reality that overestimates economic activity in a way that is unsustainable. Williams warns that eventually the painful truth will be so difficult that even government manipulation won't be able to deny it and that is when hyperinflation will take its toll on those who have not taken his advice for preserving purchasing power and securing wealth.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Why Japan's "Lost Decades" Economic Depression Are Headed For America in 2016 / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: It's only been a little more than a week since Shinzo Abe won election as Japan's latest Prime Minister in a landslide-election victory and the pundits are already lining up telling investors to "buy Japan" because it's "dirt cheap."

The hope is that Abe's promises of fresh stimulus, unlimited spending and placing a priority on domestic infrastructure will be the elixir that restores Japan's global muscle.

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Economics

Friday, December 07, 2012

Economic Depression, Time To Write Off Europe for the Next Decade? / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The EU is a morally bankrupt blind behemoth that, in a doomed attempt to survive, destroys everything around it just to keep itself standing. In that, it is hardly different from several incarnations of the 20th century politburos in Russia and China - and those are by no means the darkest comparisons that could spring to mind.

There are tons of people working in and for the EU, some of whom are smart while others are not, some who are honest and some who are just self-centred , but the apparatus has become a vortex that sucks in all of them. There many be just a small window left for Europeans to retain a grip on democracy. There's not much left. Stock markets may give the impression that things are going fine, but that is possible only because increasingly severe austerity measures are spreading rapidly, and have now reached the core, not just Greece and Spain. The EU induced illusions will keep coming fast and furious, however, until they don't. And then it will be too late for democracy.

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Economics

Friday, November 16, 2012

The Fall Of Micro- And Macro- Economics And The Rise Of Mega-Economics / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Dr_R_M_Mathew

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Opening Note
This is the second part of my recent work, appeared in the Market Oracle (UK), ‘The Great Depression II Lasting Till 2025’ (www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37335.html) . In spite of the Stimulus Packages of America, European Countries , India , China and etc besides the brain storming sessions of the World Economic Forum, deliberations of the UN, IMF. OECD and World Bank and lecturing of the Nobel Laureates in Economics and advices of the Management Gurus, the teaching and research works of the Harvard or Stanford Business Schools, the world is at the grip of the Great Depression II Lasting at least 2025. This is an inquiry in to the underlying causes of the Global Economic Crisis and Failure of Economists, Management Experts and Rulers and Political Leadership. It also suggests some alterative global strategies under ‘Mega Economics’ in stead of the familiar Micro and Macro Economics, including Keynesian Economics.

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