A marked consolidation has been unfolding in the EUA (ICE ECX) contract, displaying a slow downward bias. So far bears have been unable to develop this more in their favour, but, now, they have another chance – will they take it?

The Commodity Specialist view

WEEKLY CHART - CONTINUATION:

The 38.2% recovery level remains first key resistance on this long term chart.

The current multi-month consolidation (with slight bear bias) continues to unfold.

Any shorter term weakness should prove temporary though.

DAILY CHART – DEC-10:

Note how nicely support has developed at the 50% retracement.

It is again under pressure, following lacklustre rally attempts, with current risk of a better break.

This would turn initial focus towards the channel base projection at 11.10 currently. However, also note lower 76.4% level at 10.30 which lies close to a Fibo projection at 10.38 – the temptation would be to target this area.

Overhead, the hurdles include s/term 76.4% bounce level at 14.48, falling resistance line just above and then 15.17 08-Dec high. A breach of the latter would violate the pattern of falling highs and lows, and turn the tables in favour of the bulls.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
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