Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? - - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold Price Downtrend Looks Set to Continue - Clive_Maund
4.Commodity Prices Set To Plunge Below 2008 Lows - Austin_Galt
5.New Greece Drachma Revealed Amid Bank Runs - Greeks Buy Gold Sovereigns - GoldCore
6.Gold and Silver Stocks or General Stock Market Indices? - Rambus_Chartology
7.“Forgive Us Our Debts” – Only Way To Prevent Economic Meltdown - GoldCore
8.UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election - Nadeem_Walayat
9.12 Reasons Why Barry Ritholtz and Many UK Experts Are Mistaken On Gold - GoldCore
10.Recession is On The Way; Beat The Stock Market Crowd, Panic Now! - Mike_Shedlock
Last 5 days
Gold Price and Mining Stocks Decline Together - 3rd Mar 15
Financial Slaughter - The Silence of the Lambs - 3rd Mar 15
Bondholders “Bailed In” In Austria – New Banking Crisis? - 3rd Mar 15
How to Profit from the Coming Oil Price Crunch - 3rd Mar 15
Is Japan Zimbabwe? Could Japan go Hyperinflation? - 3rd Mar 15
Bill Gross Says Fed May Raise Rates 25 Basis Points in June - 3rd Mar 15
The Secret Behind My Hedge Fund Trade on U.S. Housing Market - 3rd Mar 15
BLS CPI Lie - How's That Dsflation Working Out for You? - 3rd Mar 15
Tesla Bonfire of the Money Printers’ Vanities - 3rd Mar 15
Gold Demand in UK, Europe and U.S. – Reuters Interview GoldCore - 2nd Mar 15
Watch the Skies... for Investor Profits - 2nd Mar 15
How Investors Can Identify the Best Small-Cap Stocks - 2nd Mar 15
Gold and Silver - What If the Precious Metal Stocks Bulls are Back - 2nd Mar 15
Students Getting a PhD in Subprime Debt - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 3 - 2nd Mar 15
The Stock Market is in The Process of Major Top! - 2nd Mar 15
Stock Market Weakening Trend - 2nd Mar 15
Gold Price Glimmer of Hope - 1st Mar 15
Stock Markets Are Riding High on Thin Air - 1st Mar 15
Varoufakis vs. the Troika - Showdown in Athens - 1st Mar 15
Subprime Rising - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 2 - 1st Mar 15
Gold CoT Improving, But ... - 1st Mar 15
UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? - 28th Feb 15
UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others - 28th Feb 15
Stocks Bull Market Continues - 28th Feb 15
U.S. Debt Breaking Bad - 28th Feb 15
NATO Frankenstein - When Centralization Scales Beyond Our Control - 28th Feb 15
Gold And Silver Insanity Prevails; Precious Metals Without Direction - 28th Feb 15
Fed Raising U.S. Interest Rates - Shovelin’ Schmitt Against the Tide - 28th Feb 15
Don't Let This Stock Market Myth Cost You Your Gains - 28th Feb 15
Recession is On The Way; Beat The Stock Market Crowd, Panic Now! - 28th Feb 15
Stock Market Indexes Creeping Towards the Edge - 28th Feb 15
GGD Going for Mexican Gold - 27th Feb 15
Foreign Real Estate Is the New Swiss Bank Account - 27th Feb 15
10 Reasons Washington Has War Fever - 27th Feb 15
Gold and the Euro Tragedy, Iraq 3.0, Ukraine Conflict Three Ring Circus - 27th Feb 15
Deepak Chopra - New Age Genius or Bullshit Expert? - Video - 27th Feb 15 - Videos
New Greece Drachma Revealed Amid Bank Runs - Greeks Buy Gold Sovereigns - 27th Feb 15
Will Month Long Stocks Rally Continue? - 27th Feb 15
The Only Public Hedge Fund You Should Own - 27th Feb 15
UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election - 27th Feb 15
Why America is Ungovernable - The Republicans’ Civil War - 27th Feb 15
Gold vs Gold Stocks: Bullish Anomaly Developing? - 27th Feb 15
I Heart Capitalism, Nasdaq Stocks, Then And Now - 27th Feb 15
The Fed’s History of Assassination - 27th Feb 15 i
Gold Bull Market Forecast - Money Will Rotate Into These Dead Investments - 27th Feb 15
"Audit the Fed"? We've Already Done That (Well, Kind of) - 26th Feb 15
Forget Peak Oil; Worry About Peak Demand - 26th Feb 15
Currency Wars, Again - 26th Feb 15
The Fed Waited Too Long: Here Comes Inflation - 26th Feb 15
Investing Inertia Won’t Keep Your Cash Safe - 26th Feb 15
The Net Neutrality Scam - 26th Feb 15
Will Conservatives Out of Control Immigration Crisis Boost UKIP Election 2015 Prospects? - 26th Feb 15
EU Warns Ireland and Euro Zone of Debt Dangers - 26th Feb 15
Commodity Prices Set To Plunge Below 2008 Lows - 26th Feb 15
Ukraine Hyperinflation as Currency Plunges 44% in One Week! - 26th Feb 15
The State of the Global Markets 2015 - 53 Page Report - 26th Feb 15
NASDAQ New 15 Year High - Stock Market Death By Overdose - 25th Feb 15
12 Reasons Why Barry Ritholtz and Many UK Experts Are Mistaken On Gold - 25th Feb 15
Sugar Commodity Price To Sweeten Up - 25th Feb 15
Investor Profits from China 2,000-Year Unstoppable Trends - 25th Feb 15
How to Borrow Cheaply from a Government-Owned Bank - 25th Feb 15
Debt Be Not Proud - 25th Feb 15
Liberal Democrat Election Blood Bath - Could Nick Clegg Lose Sheffield Hallam? - 25th Feb 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The State of the Global Markets 2015

Gold Bullish Developments Could be Blown by Falling Channel

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Apr 06, 2010 - 01:14 AM GMT

By: Douglas_V._Gnazzo

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs discussed in these reports and elsewhere, all eyes have been focused on Greece's sovereign debt problems. As I have repeatedly said - this is but the tip of an iceberg of global proportions.

China's debt may reach 39.83 trillion Yuan ($5.8 trillion) next year. The International Monetary Fund estimates that China's debt-to-GDP ratio is 22%, which excludes local-government liabilities.


The IMF has Spain at 69.6%, the U.S. at 94%, and Greece at 115%, with Japan winning first prize at a whopping 227%. Japan's total public debt is fast approaching the value of household wealth, which suggests serious problems for the government bond market.

IMF Meeting

Professor Victor Shih's research into China's local government funding costs, which were not included in the "official" IMF report, estimates that China's government debt could reach 96% of gross domestic product next year, increasing the risk of yet another financial crisis.

According to Moody's, the U.S. government will spend about 7% of its revenue servicing its debt in 2010 and 11% in 2013, based on a moderate economic recovery, fiscal adjustments the government plans on implementing, and a gradual increase in interest rates.

If, however, there is lower growth than projected, coupled with less fiscal adjustment and higher interest rates, the U.S. could be paying 15% of revenue in interest payments that would lead to a downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt by Moody's.

It appears there is more than one *****-roach hiding beneath the rubble of structured finance - waiting to crawl out into the light of day, exposing the world's dysfunctional paper fiat monetary system for the travesty it is.

Bonds

Recall in the above economic section of this report that two scenarios were given for U.S. sovereign debt service (interest rates). One was based on a "Goldie Locks" scenario where all things are sugar & spice; and the second was based on Murphy's Law: "anything that can go wrong will go wrong". Well, lately interest rates have been rising in the U.S., and fairly significantly so. This week was no different.

Two year government rates increased 6 basis points to 1.02%. Five year yields added 8 bps to 2.60%. Ten year yields surges 10 basis points to end the week at 3.95% (nearing the important 4% level). And the long bond increased 4.3 bps to 4.73% (closing in on the crucial 5% rate). Of interest: Greece's sovereign debt yields surged 33 bps to 6.52%, compared to German rates that fell 7 bps to 3.08%, leaving the spread at 344 bps or twice the Germany's rate. 30 year fixed mortgage rates issued by Freddie Mac added 9 basis points to a 12 week high 5.08%.

As I wrote in last week's report, interest rates are rising in the U.S. because investors are well aware of the huge supply of debt the Treasury needs to sell to fund the deficits and other bailout schemes. Investors are demanding higher interest to compensate for the added risk - the risk of price depreciation and perhaps even default, just as Greece is experiencing.

A paper fiat monetary debt system has the seeds of self-destructing built within. 30 year Treasury yields peaked at 14% in 1981 and then began a long decline into its 2008 financial panic low near 2.6%. From there rates have rebounded to present levels, as prospects for the economy and the markets increased.

30-Year US Treasury Yield Showing Secular Trend of Lower Interest Rates

As I have said for months: the next bubble to pop could be the bond bubble, aka: the Greenspan put, which was the main reason why China & Japan funded our national debt.

If 30 year yields break above, and hold, the 4.75% level, it will mean that a secular change of higher rates is unfolding.

This would be a major event that the markets are NOT prepared for; and will have dire consequences if it occurs.

The chart below shows 10 year yields approaching overhead resistance near 4% that goes back to 2008. Yields have already far surpassed the 62.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting that the highs will be tested and broken.

The chart pattern also resembles a cup & handle formation that if confirmed gives an upside projection for rates near 6% on an intermediate term basis. The monthly chart gives even higher yield targets.

10-Year US Treasury Note

TLT iShares T-Bond 20+Years

Above: TLT (20 yr. bonds) breaking below lower trend line and bouncing of horizontal support. Below: TNX (10 yr. yields) breaking out and bumping into overhead resistance at 3.9%.

$TNX 10-Year US Treasury Yield

Gold Wafer

Gold

Gold was up $19.70 to close at $1126.80 for a weekly gain of +1.78%. In last week's report (3/26/10) I stated that it was encouraging to see gold hold positive territory while the dollar was up over 1%, and that price was testing important support going back to its earlier March low and its Feb. breakout from the falling wedge pattern.

Although in last week's report, prices had remained little changed from the previous week (3/19/10), intra-week gold had tested its lows, which held.

With Friday's (3/26/10) long white candlestick, as discussed in last week's market wrap, the weight of the evidence had shifted from negative back to even. This was positive price action, but required further confirmation.

Last week's reported stated that the daily chart showed gold was oversold, according to both CCI and STO readings. The CCI indicator had moved from below -100, to just above this trigger level, and was sitting at -75 on last Friday's (3/26/10) close.

I pointed out that if one followed the blue vertical lines on the chart that they connected past CCI signals with subsequent price rallies and oversold STO readings at the bottom of the chart.

It was further stated that for these buy signals to be valid that STO needed to move from below 20 to above; and that both the CCI & STO signals need to be confirmed with a positive MACD crossover.

As the chart below shows, STO turned up and through the 20 zone this past week and is now above 50; AND MACD made a positive crossover.

Price has broken out of its falling flag formation AND above its falling trend line extending down from its Dec. high. The chart has turned decidedly bullish if price holds the breakout.

Gold Continuous Contract

And there is further potential. A few weeks ago I mentioned that gold appeared to be in the process of forming an inverse head & shoulders formation. To quote from the 3/19/10 market wrap report:

It shows the breakout of the falling wedge pattern. The breakout has formed its own triangle pattern, and is presently testing its bottom support line. Notice the inverse head & shoulders pattern that has been developing. Until Friday's steep drop, this looked like a pretty viable scenario. But Friday's drop brings it seriously into question. It has to reverse immediately or it's dead in the water. However, IF (?) price does bounce and reverse off support, then the pattern would be alive again. To confirm the pattern, a breakout on expanding volume above the neckline is needed.

So far, GLD has reversed from 106 to 110. A breakout above the neckline would take place around 111.50 - not far away, but we ain't there yet. Most importantly: it will need to occur on expanding volume AND resistance must turn into support.

SPDR Gold Trust Shares

One Troy Ounce of 999.9 Gold

Now, before getting too carried away with the bullish case for gold, I like to look at what could go wrong and blow my entire premise out of the water. Here's one possibility - there are others.

Notice that gold has formed a falling price channel: a series of lower highs and lower lows. The recent higher low, if it holds, breaks the lower low half of the equation.

Next, we need a break above the March high, and preferably the Jan. high, to break the series of lower highs. A break below the March low would lead to a test of the Feb. low, and or the $1000 price level.

Gold Continuous Contract

The above is a small excerpt from the full market wrap report, which covers all the markets: stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, gold & silver, and the precious metal stocks. Each weekly report contains dozens of charts and graphs, our stock watch list, and model portfolio.

Stop by and check out our FREE one month trial subscription and this week's report which highlights the breakout in gold & silver and the pm stocks.

Good Luck. Good Trading. Good Health. And that's a Wrap.

Good luck. Good trading. Good health, and that’s a wrap.

Come visit our website: Honest Money Gold & Silver Report
New Audio-Book Now Available - Honest Money  

Douglas V. Gnazzo
Honest Money Gold & Silver Report

About the author: Douglas V. Gnazzo writes for numerous websites and his work appears both here and abroad. Mr. Gnazzo is a listed scholar for the Foundation for the Advancement of Monetary Education (FAME).

Disclaimer: The contents of this article represent the opinions of Douglas V. Gnazzo. Nothing contained herein is intended as investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions, and you should not rely on it as such. Douglas V. Gnazzo is not a registered investment advisor. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and using methods believed to be reliable, but Douglas. V. Gnazzo cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of your reliance on this analysis and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions. This article may contain information that is confidential and/or protected by law. The purpose of this article is intended to be used as an educational discussion of the issues involved. Douglas V. Gnazzo is not a lawyer or a legal scholar. Information and analysis derived from the quoted sources are believed to be reliable and are offered in good faith. Only a highly trained and certified and registered legal professional should be regarded as an authority on the issues involved; and all those seeking such an authoritative opinion should do their own due diligence and seek out the advice of a legal professional. Lastly Douglas V. Gnazzo believes that The United States of America is the greatest country on Earth, but that it can yet become greater. This article is written to help facilitate that greater becoming. God Bless America.

Douglas V. Gnazzo © 2010 All Rights Reserved


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014