Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
This Invisible Tech Stock Threatens Amazon with 800,000+ Online Stores - 21st Nov 19
Crude Oil Price Begins To Move Lower - 21st Nov 19
Cracks Spread in the Precious Metals Bullion Banks’ Price Management System - 21st Nov 19
Why Record-High Stock Prices Mean You Should Buy More - 20th Nov 19
This Invisible Company Powers Almost the Entire Finance Industry - 20th Nov 19
Zig-Zagging Gold Is Not Necessarily Bearish Gold - 20th Nov 19
Legal Status of Cannabis Seeds in the UK - 20th Nov 19
The Next Gold Rush Could Be About To Happen Here - 20th Nov 19
China's Grand Plan to Take Over the World - 19th Nov 19
Interest Rates Heading Zero or Negative to Prop Up Debt Bubble - 19th Nov 19
Plethora of Potential Financial Crisis Triggers - 19th Nov 19
Trade News Still Relevant? - 19th Nov 19
Comments on Catena Media Q3 Report 2019 - 19th Nov 19
Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Drags On For A Near Record—36 Months - 18th Nov 19
Intellectual Property as the New Guild System - 18th Nov 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q3’ 2019 Fundamentals - 18th Nov 19
The Best Way To Play The Coming Gold Boom - 18th Nov 19
What ECB’s Tiering Means for Gold - 17th Nov 19
DOJ Asked to Examine New Systemic Risk in Gold & Silver Markets - 17th Nov 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Cycle Update and are we there yet? - 17th Nov 19
When the Crude Oil Price Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III - 17th Nov 19
If History Repeats, Gold is Headed to $8,000 - 17th Nov 19
All You Need To Know About Cryptocurrency - 17th Nov 19
What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 – Part II - 15th Nov 19
America’s Exceptionalism’s Non-intervention Slide to Conquest, Empire - and Socialism - 15th Nov 19
Five Gold Charts to Contemplate as We Prepare for the New Year - 15th Nov 19
Best Gaming CPU Nov 2019 - Budget, Mid and High End PC System Processors - 15th Nov 19
Lend Money Without A Credit Check — Is That Possible? - 15th Nov 19
Gold and Silver Capitulation Time - 14th Nov 19
The Case for a Silver Price Rally - 14th Nov 19
What Happens To The Global Economy If the Oil Price Collapses Below $40 - 14th Nov 19
7 days of Free FX + Crypto Forecasts -- Join in - 14th Nov 19
How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas - 13th Nov 19
Morrisons Throwing Thousands of Bonus More Points at Big Spend Shoppers - JACKPOT! - 13th Nov 19
What to Do NOW in Case of a Future Banking System Breakdown - 13th Nov 19
Why China is likely to remain the ‘world’s factory’ for some time to come - 13th Nov 19
Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally - 12th Nov 19
Fed Can't See the Bubbles Through the Lather - 12th Nov 19
Double 11 Record Sales Signal Strength of Chinese Consumption - 12th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II - 12th Nov 19
Gold Retest Coming - 12th Nov 19
New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation - 12th Nov 19
Next 5 Year Future Proof Gaming PC Build Spec November 2019 - Ryzen 9 3900x, RTX 2080Ti... - 12th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

$4 Billion Golden Oppoerunity

Stock Market Trend Important Signals for Currency Investors

Currencies / Forex Trading Jun 05, 2010 - 05:53 PM GMT

By: Bryan_Rich

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrencies represent the truest reflection of economic fundamentals and market sentiment. Therefore, they continue to be an important segment of the financial markets to watch.

Since the “flash crash” in the U.S. stock market on May 6, most market pundits and financial media have had their eyes glued to the euro for explanations on stock market activity.


Take a look at these headlines to see what I mean …

• Reuters: “Stocks Slide, Euro Falls After Spain Downgrade”

• Associated Press: “Stocks Slide After Euro Falls to New 4-year Low”

• Press TV: “Euro Concerns Pull Down Global Stocks”

So perhaps there’s never been a more important time to keep abreast of the …

Currency Markets and Market Correlations

While the euro is proving a critical catalyst for all global markets, today I’d like to show you other examples of intermarket relationships that can offer important clues for the future direction of currencies.

First, take a look at this chart of the Canadian dollar and the S&P 500.

Chart

The Canadian dollar had been hovering around parity versus the U.S. dollar for much of April, prompting forecasts of much more strength ahead and an uptick in interest in Canadian investments.

But despite the improving economic data in Canada and the associated prospects for the Bank of Canada to start reversing record low interest rates, the Canadian dollar’s fate has been more intimately connected to the performance of the U.S. stock market.

So if you have an interest in the future direction of the Canadian dollar or Canadian dollar denominated investments, you should pay close attention to where U.S. stocks are headed.

Next …

It’s widely believed that emerging market economies are the place to be. “That’s where the growth will come from” experts say. And Brazil is typically on the top of the list. Also keep in mind, when the Brazilian real moves up or down, so do your investments in Brazil.

But is the performance of Brazilian markets truly a representation of the country’s economic fundamentals or is it more of a reflection of prospects for the global economy?

Take a look at this chart.

Chart

Like with the Canadian dollar, it’s clear in the chart above that the real closely tracks the movements of the U.S. stock market. When stocks go up, money flows into Brazil and its currency. When stocks go down, money flows out.

So while Brazil may have the fundamental tools in place to attract global capital, the returns on that capital, in this highly fragile global economic climate, are likely to be more explained by the U.S. stock market.

Global currencies tend to track U.S. stocks.
Global currencies tend to track U.S. stocks.

The bottom line: The S&P 500 is acting as the key proxy of global economic health. And as global risk appetite oscillates, so does the U.S. stock market and, as a result, so do global markets.

Given the stock market declines of the past month and the elevated risk environment, these intermarket relationships suggest the performance in global markets will continue to follow the path carved by U.S. stocks.

My advice: Be aware of the external influences on your investments. A growing sovereign debt crisis and threats of a slowdown in Chinese growth represent big risks to global growth and global markets. And for cues on how global investors are digesting these risks, just watch the U.S. stock market.

Regards,

Bryan

P.S. For more in depth analysis on the currency markets and specific recommendations on how to both profit and protect yourself from the unfolding currency crisis, I’d love for you to join me in my monthly newsletter, World Currency Alert. For more details please click here.

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules