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Stock Market Downtrend Still Intact

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jun 29, 2010 - 03:47 AM GMT

By: Harry_Boxer

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe stock market indices ended the day on a sour note, slightly in the negative column, but spent the day vacillating. The day started out with a move down to new lows on the Nasdaq 100; however, the S&P 500 did not confirm that. When that occurred, they staged a strong snapback rally, but could not quite get above the late Friday afternoon's highs, then pulled back in an orderly fashion over the next couple hours. With a couple hours to go, the indices bounced back up to the declining tops line, but couldn't get through, and rolled over the last hour or so, pulling back to close near the afternoon lows.


Net on the day, the Dow was down just 5.29 today at 10,138.52, the S&P 500 was down 2.19 at 1074.57, and the Nasdaq 100 down 2.52 at 1836.00.

Advance/declines were 14 to 11 positive on New York Stock Exchange and just 16 to 15 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was slightly positive as well.

Our Charts of the Day:

Highlighting stocks on the short side, Aixtron Aktiengesellschaft (AIXG) has a top pattern that built out over 7 or 8 months that was broken at the end of May, snapped back twice, was unable to break through, and then began to rollover in the last few days. The down channel that is forming now calls for a move down towards 20. That's the next trading target, but there is support around 22.

Avon Products Inc. (AVP) has a strong uptrend, followed by a multi-month topping process, a sharp break in early May, a lower low at the end of May, then a bounce-back to the declining moving average and lateral price resistance zone in the 27.76 area, rolled over last week and appears to be headed lower. There's major support zone around 25 that if taken out should lead to something in the high teens, maybe the 20 area for starters.

Unisys Corporation (UIS), having broken in April hard, continues to stair-step its way lower, bounced to resistance, could not get through, then backed off. This one looks like it has a target around the 15-16 zone.

WellPoint Inc. (WLP), which also has had 4-waves down, looks like a 5th wave could take it down into the mid-40s, maybe even the low 40s. It's currently drifting and falling out of the bear flag it formed with heavy resistance up around the 56 zone. This stock looks like that if it takes out 49 it could fall away pretty quickly.

Reviewing our Watchboard:

TheTechTrader.com board, as a result, was mixed; however, there were several point-plus gainers. Leading the way, Apple Inc. (AAPL) was up 1.60 at 268.30, OmniVision Technologies Inc. (OVTI) 1.35 at 23.96, Radcom Ltd. (RDCM) 1.01 at 5.13, and IDT Corporation (IDT) 1.58 at 11.37.

Other gainers of note included IDT Corporation (IDT) up 1.58 at 11.37, Intellicheck Mobilisa, Inc. (IDN) up 90 cents at 2.10, Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (OREX) 75 cents at 4.90, and Energy Recovery, Inc. (ERII) 68 cents at 4.48.

Fractional gainers of note: Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) up 15 cents at 37.15, Cree Inc. (CREE) 42 cents at 64.64, Tibco Software Inc. (TIBX) up only 4 cents at 12.60, and SYNNEX Corp. (SNX) 36 cents at 26.94,

On the downside, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) was down 3.20 at 117.80, Goldman Sachs (GS) down 3.00 at 136.66, Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) 1.66 at 74.44, and Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) 1.16 at 25.35.

In addition, Google Inc. (GOOG) dropped 60 cents at 472.08, Acme Packet, Inc. (APKT) 54 cents at 28.84, Spreadtrum Communications Inc. (SPRD) 51 cents at 9.10, Xyratex Ltd. (XRTX) 36 cents at 15.01, and Ariba (ARBA) 57 cents at 17.17.

Utra-short ETF gainers today were the Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bear 3X Shares (EDZ) up 96 cents at 43.61, the Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) up 42 cents at 15.23, the Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3X Shares (BGZ) 20 cents at 16.17, and iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) 46 cents at 28.18.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were down early, rallied to late morning, then pulled back in the early afternoon. They bounced mid-afternoon, rolled over at the end of the day, kind of choppy, but closed near the afternoon session lows to end disappointingly negative on the day after being in the plus column for much of the morning and early afternoon.

In any case, the downtrend is still intact, and unless they can reverse this and take out overhead resistance, the indices have a chance of extending to the downside.

Good Trading!

Harry

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Mr. Boxer's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Boxer's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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