Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Beware Gold Stocks Downside - 13th Dec 19
Fed Says No Interest Rate Hikes In 2020. What About Gold? - 13th Dec 19
The ABC’s of Fiat Money - 13th Dec 19
Why Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems LOST Seats General Election 2019 - Sheffiled Hallam Result - 13th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 BBC Exit Poll Forecast Accuracy Analysis - 12th Dec 19
Technical Analysis Update: Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) - Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) - 12th Dec 19
Silver Miners Pinpoint the Precious Metals’ Outlook - 12th Dec 19
How Google Has Become the Worlds Biggest Travel Company - 12th Dec 19
UK Election Seats Forecasts - Tories 326, Labour 241, SNP 40, Lib Dems 17 - 12th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 Final Seats Per Party Forecast - 12th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI INFLATION Forecasts for General Election Result 2019 - 11th Dec 19
Gold ETF Holdings Surge… But Do They Actually Hold Gold? - 11th Dec 19
Gold, Silver Reversals, Lower Prices and Our Precious Profits - 11th Dec 19
Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth - 11th Dec 19
YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? - 10th Dec 19
What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF - 10th Dec 19
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! - 9th Dec 19
Stock and Financial Markets Review - 9th Dec 19
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis - 9th Dec 19
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 - 9th Dec 19
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK General Election Forecast 2019

International Community Presses Juba, Khartoum On Sudan Referendum

Politics / GeoPolitics Jul 30, 2010 - 12:22 PM GMT

By: OilPrice_Com

Politics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe international community is pressuring the Juba and Khartoum governments to speed up preparation for a vote on South Sudan’s future – a decision that will be dominated by the fate of coveted oil resources -- but an expert on the African country criticizes the lack of understanding about Sudan.

The referendum, scheduled for January 2011, is widely expected to result in the south parting ways with the north after years of bitterness and war.


Oil is located mainly in the south, but the north is also on the hunt for the precious commodity because a deal to divide the oil wealth will run out in six months. Many predict that arguing about the future of the resource will put the two sides on the brink of war once again.

“Sudan is alarmingly unprepared for that referendum,” said Rosie Sharpe, a campaigner for Global Witness, a London-based non-governmental organization focusing on conflict and resources.

But Benaiah Yongo-Bure, an associate professor of social science at Kettering University in Flint, Mich., dismissed the accusations by foreign NGOs that the Khartoum government and South Sudan are not ready for post-referendum life.

“They go and say things without a deeper understanding of Sudan,” charged
Yongo-Bure, a Sudan expatriate. “They talk too much without knowing the reality of Sudan, and they’re confusing things. I know [the two governments] are not ready, but the referendum will have to go on and they’ll get ready in the process.”

A global coalition of 26 humanitarian and human rights organizations like Refugees International and the African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies issued a report in mid-July warning that the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended 20-plus years of war and has held both sides at bay for five years, will expire in six months while many political issues like oil sharing and border demarcation have not been resolved.

“Neither Sudanese actors, nor the so-called international Guarantors who have formally pledged to support them to implement the CPA, are well prepared,” states the report, titled “Renewing the Pledge.” CPA guarantors include the African Union, the United States, Italy and the United Kingdom, among others.

Author Dave Eggers and John Prendergast, co-founder of the Enough Project, also weighed in: If no referendum takes place in January, or if the results are manipulated, then fighting will break out worse than before.

And earlier this month, Global Witness -- which cautioned that a wealth sharing agreement is coming to an end just as the south is predicted to vote to secede -- issued five principles for a post-referendum oil deal in Sudan such as full public disclosure.

“The precariousness of the situation cannot be overstated,” Global Witness’ briefing paper notes.

Global Witness’ report is based, in part, on its investigations into the country's current oil wealth sharing deal and experience in working on oil and transparency issues in Angola, Equatorial Guinea, the Republic of Congo, Cambodia and East Timor, according to a press release accompanying the report’s release.

Still, the dire warnings of many human rights organizations bother Yongo-Bure.

Even with 10 years to prepare, the southern government of Juba and the northern government of Khartoum would still be racing to tie up all loose ends, Yongo-Bure told OilPrice.com. “The north does not want the south to go,” he said. “They also don’t want to change their issues of Islamic law, the issue of sharing in the power. They want to dominate Sudan.”

Given this internal turmoil, the “international community is not helping,” he declared, noting that foreign groups are pressing the weaker south to “submit” to the north because it is in Juba’s best interests. He said he doubts an agreement can be forged unless the south gives in to the requests of its northern neighbor for the continued flow of oil money.

While international groups “don’t say” categorically that the south should give in to the north, Yongo-Bure said this is how he interprets the NGO message.

Yet if the referendum spurs the official breakup of Sudan, the professor does not see the benefit of sharing resources. “There’s no obligation,” he noted.

Despite NGO criticisms of the slow pace of negotiations, there is no shortage of attention on Sudan these days.

Several standing committees in Sudan are tackling post-referendum issues, said Parek Maduot, a member of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (the southern Sudanese political party) and an independent commentator on Sudan affairs based in Virginia. Former South African President Thabo Mbeki also heads an African Union contact group, he said. Over the next three or four months, extensive meetings will be held between Juba and Khartoum, and even abroad, to resolve lingering issues between both sides, Maduot said.

This week, Mbeki convened a two-day session that begins the process of negotiating post-referendum arrangements, according to a New Sudan Vision report. The report states that global experts gave presentations on the likely consequences of negotiating oil, citizenship, borders and other issues.

The eventual system adopted to share oil if the south becomes independent must come with a mechanism to verify that wealth is being shared, Global Witness’ Sharpe told OilPrice.com. One would need to know the volume of oil produced, the price of every individual sale of oil and the cost claimed back by oil companies, she noted.

“And it’s practically impossible to verify all of those things, which means that there continues to be mistrust over whether the oil revenues are being shared fairly,” Sharpe maintained. “Practically every southerner you’d speak to thinks that they’ve been cheated over the oil revenues.”

A number of options have been suggested on how to resolve the oil question, including that the northern capital Khartoum should charge its southern counterpart Juba a fee for using a pipeline to move the resource, she said. This kind of a system would be “more easily verifiable than a percentage split in the oil revenues,” she added.

According to this proposal, the south would know “how much oil has been loaded into the pipeline, [and] will need to trust what comes out the other end,” Sharpe said. “And the north will know what comes out of Port Sudan but needs to know that all the oil has gone into the pipeline in the first place.”

This creates a situation where “both parties need to trust each other, which gives them both an interest in coming up with a transparent arrangement,” she said.

Under this option, southern Sudan would not simply pay for the physical use of the pipeline shipping crude through the north, but also technical expertise from Chinese and Malaysian oil firms, added Maduot, the independent Sudan commentator.

Kettering University’s Yongo-Bure backs the idea of renting pipelines from the north, which would go up to Port Sudan, a city located on the Red Sea. The agreement would have to be renewed every “two or so years,” but should not tie the south in for too long, he advised.

The rationale is that if the north overcharges the south, the latter can pursue alternative options, Yongo-Bure explained. While the Kenyan government has offered Juba access to a port north of the city of Mombasa, and Toyota is willing to construct a pipeline, the pipeline will take time to put in place, he said.

Building a pipeline to a different country would require paying that government for the use of the infrastructure, Maduot told OilPrice.com. With immediate financing, there are many companies that have the expertise and can build it within three years but the cost ranges from $2 billion to $4 billion, he added.

“It’s doable if there’s a political will,” said Maduot, “but it’s not a decision you can make in a vacuum.” Khartoum would undoubtedly be opposed to a plan that cuts its oil revenues within two or three years and hits its bottom line, he explained. The idea would also lead to renewed insecurity and fighting, he cautioned.

Critically dependent on oil, both north and south will eventually come to an agreement, he predicted, but not without “hiccups along the way.”

Source: http://oilprice.com/..

By Fawzia Sheikh for Oilprice.com who focus on Fossil Fuels, Alternative Energy, Metals, Crude Oil Prices and Geopolitics. To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com

© 2010 Copyright OilPrice.com- All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules