Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
GDX Gold Stocks ETF - 25th June 19
What Does Facebook’s LIBRA New Crytocurrency Really Offer? - 25th June 19
Why Bond Investors MUST Be Paying Attention to Puerto Rico - 25th June 19
The Next Great Depression in the Making - 25th June 19
The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment - 24th June 19
Stock Market New High, but…! - 24th June 19
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally Ends - 24th June 19
How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms - 24th June 19
5 basic tips to help mitigate the vulnerability inherent in email communications - 24th June 19
Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - 24th June 19
Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - 23rd June 19
Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits - 23rd June 19
What You Should Look While Choosing Online Casino - 23rd June 19
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - 22nd June 19
Here’s Why You Should Drive a Piece of Crap Car - 22nd June 19
How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? - 22nd June 19
Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! - 21st June 19
Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur - 21st June 19
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned - 21st June 19
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks - 21st June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - 21st June 19
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt - 21st June 19
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls - 21st June 19
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis - 20th June 19
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart - 20th June 19
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal - 20th June 19
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - 20th June 19
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks - 20th June 19
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally - 20th June 19 -
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero - 20th June 19
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle - 20th June 19
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS - 20th June 19
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

How to Look for a Job

Politics / Employment Aug 04, 2010 - 07:32 AM GMT

By: Fred_Sheehan

Politics

Unemployment is stuck in a rut. One reason is the tendency to look backwards. Trillions of dollars have been spent (with no end in sight) to bail out financial institutions, homebuilders, and failing industries. The federal government is spending $787 billion on a rejuvenation plan: ARRA - the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. In the bill, $500 million is sequestered to metamorphose former credit-default swap salesmen into nurses and public health workers. Assuming the government wastes half of that money filling a new bureaucracy to administer the training, that still will be a lot of new nurses.


We always need nurses, but the question arises whether there are enough hospitals, doctors, machinery and bedpans to employ the trainees. There are plenty of unemployed nurses now. For those who pursue this path, they may be entering at a market top. This would not be the first time. Remember the CEO's who left their firms in 1999 and 2000 to start Internet companies? In that case, technology and telecom companies had risen from 5.6% of the S&P 500 in December 1993 to 38.8% in June 2000.

Today, health costs in the United States are about 16% of the national income (GDP), over twice the percentage in Japan, Finland and Norway, all of which have longer life expectancies than in the U.S. The proportion of the American economy devoted to health care will no doubt rise before it recedes, but recede it will.

Instead of joining the battalion of nurses, it could be more profitable to study a field that is bound to grow: energy. The cost of energy is about 5% of world GDP. This will rise considerably. Andy Lees, who heads a macro sales team at UBS in London, estimates the proportion will rise to around 16% of world GDP. Lees wrote a book in which he explains his calculations, The Weakest Link (which can be downloaded at www.scribd.com/doc/17761313/Andy-Lees-The-Weakest-Link).

For purposes of career guidance, it is sufficient to say that oil-out-of-the-ground is less of a burden on the world economy than other forms of energy. Onshore oil production peaked in 1978. Offshore oil has carried the torch, but its extraction is less efficient. Efficiencies attenuate from "factor inputs" (Andy Lees' term). The factor inputs are land, labor, capital, and resources.

Oil consumption is the product of inputs. Since more inputs are required to produce a barrel of offshore oil, fewer inputs are available for health care. Natural gas, liquefied natural gas, wind power, solar power, ethanol, nuclear fusion may substitute for oil - at a cost. This also presents opportunities.

Back to the nursing program, the graduates are only employable if energy is available. The more expensive or unwieldy the energy, the fewer number of nurses will find jobs. This relationship can be extended across the world economy. Energy might be considered a cost of the world's work. The combination of factor inputs compose that cost. The race will be on to produce energy with the lowest consumption of inputs.

Not much thought is given to these factors, possibly because we do not rely on alternative energies yet, so myth-making and waste is still possible. A look at substitute energies might help the job seeker evaluate future employment.

Solar power loses about 70% of its energy during storage. Around 70% to 80% of energy is lost in the process of upgrading corn into ethanol. Wind power suffers from loss of energy in storage, in transmission, and from the declining grade of copper from mines. (Copper is used in wind-power transformers and ground rings.) Copper ore grades have declined for many years so costs have risen. Costs include more exploration (requiring more land, labor and capital), water (Chile recently banned miners from using fresh water, forcing the companies to build desalinization plants and possibly importing water from Argentina), and longer shipping routes (as remote areas are explored and mined). Longer shipping routes consume more energy (fuel), steel (ships), iron ore (to produce steel), land (mining sites) and labor (to fulfill these requirements).

This case study barely touches the costs and opportunities ahead. The reader might consider where pressures will be greatest, and where employing ones' own land, labor, capital, and resources will be most profitable.

While exploring these paths, it is important to consider timeliness. The United States is a laggard. Following are stories read on the same day (July 14, 2010). China is building an oil refinery in Lagos, Nigeria. In Argentina, China is building a rail network (for cheaper transportation of farm crops) and a subway system. Brazil is building a high-speed rail network between Rio and Sao Paulo. Diamond Offshore Drilling is moving a second deepwater rig out of the Gulf of Mexico to the Congo. Americans seem to think Washington will set the course, a vain hope. Time would be more profitably spent buying a farm or an airplane ticket.

By Frederick Sheehan

See his blog at www.aucontrarian.com

Frederick Sheehan is the author of Panderer to Power: The Untold Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession (McGraw-Hill, November 2009).

© 2010 Copyright Frederick Sheehan - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules