Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Trump Delirium Triggers Stock Market Brexit Upwards Crash Towards Dow 20,000! - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Future Price Of Gold Will Drop Below $1000 In 2017 -InvestingHaven
3.May Never Get Another Opportunity to Buy Gold at this Level Again - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Delirium - The Real Reason Why Donald Trump Won the US Presidential Election - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Why Nate Silver / Fivethirtyeight is one of the Most Reliable Election Forecasting Indicator? - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Gold Price Forecast: Nasty Naughty November Gold Price Trend - I_M_Vronsky
7.Gold Mining Stocks Screaming Buy! Q3’16 Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
8.Delirium of Trump Mania Win's Mr BrExit US Presidential Election 2016 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.The War On Cash Goes Nuclear In India, Australia and Across The World - Jeff_Berwick
10.Hidden Signs for Gold and Silver - P_Radomski_CFA
Last 7 days
Trump Stocks Bull Market Furious Rally Towards Dow 20k as Bear Mantra Persists - 8th Dec 16
More Talk About More Economic Growth and More Globalization - 7th Dec 16
Cracks In US Treasury Bond Market, The Japanese Factor - 7th Dec 16
The Rise of Anti-Establishment Italy - 7th Dec 16
Trump Likely to Drive Another Bump in Stock Market Buybacks — Here’s How to Hedge - 7th Dec 16
World War II and the Origins of American Unease - 7th Dec 16
Online CFD Trading for Traders on a Budget - 7th Dec 16
Silver Bullion Price Buying Opportunity for 2017? - 7th Dec 16
The Imminent Multi-Trillion Dollar Surge In Social Security & Medicare Costs - 7th Dec 16
Gold Bullion Price Buying Opportunity for 2017? - 6th Dec 16
Shariah Gold Standard Approved for $2 Trillion Islamic Finance Market - 6th Dec 16
THE Gold Play for 2017 - 6th Dec 16
Trump Sets The Stage For A Huge Gold Rally In 2017 - 6th Dec 16
BrExit Tsunami Claims Emperor Renzi's Scalp, Counting Down to End of the EU, Next? - 6th Dec 16
Failed EU - Means an Expanded Dictatorship - 6th Dec 16
Crude Oil Prices: "Random"? Hardly - 5th Dec 16
The Coming Stock Market Crash and WWIII - 5th Dec 16
This Past Week in Gold Market - 5th Dec 16
Stock Market Short-Term Correction Underway - 5th Dec 16
If Trump Doesn’t Do This, We Will Have the Great Depression 2.0 - 5th Dec 16
India’s Demonetization Could Be the First Cash Domino to Fall - 5th Dec 16
Our Future Economy, Jobs, Banking, And Governance - 5th Dec 16
Gold and Silver Bullion Buying Opportunity for 2017? - 4th Dec 16
First UK BrExit then Trump, Next BrExit Tsunami Wave to Hit Italy HARD Sunday! - 3rd Dec 16
The 10YR Yield and SPX Stocks Bull Markets - 3rd Dec 16
Gold And Silver – Do Not Expect Much Difference With Trump Compared To Obama - 3rd Dec 16
Gold, Currencies and Markets Critical 61.8% Retracements - 2nd Dec 16
Gold Junior Stocks Q3’16 Fundamentals - 2nd Dec 16
Adventures in Castro’s Cuba - 2nd Dec 16
We Are Putting Off the Inevitable - 2nd Dec 16
Macroeconomic Cycles & Demographics - A Fuse, An Explosive and The Igniting Catalyst - 2nd Dec 16
How Moving Averages Can Identify a Trade - 1st Dec 16
Silver Prices and Interest Rates - 1st Dec 16
America, is it Finally time for us to say Goodbye? - 1st Dec 16
Blockchain Technology – What Is It and How Will It Change Your Life? - 1st Dec 16
Burn the Flags, Can Trump Salvage The Sinking US Economic Ship? - 1st Dec 16
Will US Housing Real Estate Market Tank in 2017? - 1st Dec 16
Referendum Puts Italy's Government to the Test - 30th Nov 16
Why We Haven’t Seen Gold Price Rally after Trump Victory - 30th Nov 16
Breakdown and Slide in Crude Oil Price - 30th Nov 16
A 'Wicked Rally' in Gold Price Predicted - 30th Nov 16
Silver Market Sentiment Looks Golden - 30th Nov 16
Indian Demonetization Denotes Severe Stress in the Global Gold Market - 30th Nov 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

$10000 Gold

The State's "Inception" Fails, Massive unemployment and failing industries are the reality.

Politics / US Politics Sep 02, 2010 - 04:39 AM GMT

By: LewRockwell

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTwo years ago, the economy was seriously dragged down amidst an amazing banking crisis that spread throughout the world. The illusion created by loose credit — that housing could go up in price forever and we could enjoy permanent prosperity due to monetary expansion — was shattered by events. Reality had dawned. We found ourselves in the midst of an economic depression.


At that point in policy, we were at a fork in the road. The wise direction was to let the depression happen. Let the bad investments wash out of the system. Let housing prices fall. Let banks go broke. Let wages fall and permit the market to reallocate all resources from bubble projects to projects that make economic sense. That was the direction chosen by the Reagan administration in 1981, and by the Harding administration in 1921. The result in both cases was a short downturn followed by recovery.

The Bush administration, in a policy later followed by the Obama administration, instead attempted a tactic of dream incubation as portrayed in the recent film Inception. The idea was to inject artificial stimulus into the macroeconomic environment. There were random spending programs, massive buyouts of bad debt using phony money, gargantuan tax tricks, incentive programs for throwing good money after bad, and hiring strategies to weave illusions about how all is well.

In the movie, the goal of the dream incubation was to implant an idea into an unsuspecting subject's head that would cause him to act differently than he otherwise would have. In the real-life version of inception, the state tried to implant in all our heads the idea that there was no depression, no economic collapse, no housing crisis, no pushback on real-estate prices, and really no serious problem at all that the state cannot fix provided we are obedient subjects and do what we are told.

In the movie version, the attempted inception is on a time clock. The dream weavers can only keep the subject in a state of slumber so long. In the real-life version, things are much messier. The headlines have spoken about the impending recovery every day for all this time, and yet the evidence has never really been there. All the stimulus really did was forestall events a bit longer, but it hasn't prevented them.

Now, with the stock markets melting and the near-universal consensus that we are back in recession, everyone is awake. It is pretty clear that the inception did not take. The unemployment data look absolutely terrible. As the Wall Street Journal points out, only 59 percent of men age 20 and over have a full-time job (in the 1950s, that figure was 85 percent). Only 61 percent of all people over 20 have any kind of job now.

That's only the most conspicuous problem. No one really knows just how much further the real-estate market would fall under market-clearing conditions. The actual status of the car industry is anyone's guess. Business borrowing is going nowhere. Total industrial and commercial loans are actually at their lowest point of the whole depression. Payrolls generally are still sweeping downwards.

With an economy like ours, and a population to support with its long-held expectations of material investment, an environment like this can produce despair. People are talking about the death of the American dream, perhaps even the collapse of the American empire along the lines of Rome in days of old. Evidence is emerging by the day, as municipalities shut down street lamps and cut back on the hours at public schools. Governments that do not have access to the printing press are curbing everything.

Meanwhile, the state, as if it is trying to keep us hooked up to its failed machine, has its central bank trying to pump in more money and credit, with interest rates nearly zero. No matter how much this tactic has failed, our money masters still can't seem to face the fact that it is not working. There are very few takers these days for the phony-money loans. There is a widespread perception that inflation is on a hair trigger, so that if the expansion campaign ever really does stick, we could find ourselves in a ghastly disaster of hyperinflation.

The only really good trends exist in two worlds right now. In the digital world, we see growth and expansion and progress. This sector is not as heavily hooked up to manipulations of the Keynesian elite, and its development has proceeded at a clip even in a depression.

The other sector that shTwo years ago, the economy was seriously dragged down amidst an amazing banking crisis that spread throughout the world. The illusion created by loose credit — that housing could go up in price forever and we could enjoy permanent prosperity due to monetary expansion — was shattered by events. Reality had dawned. We found ourselves in the midst of an economic depression.

At that point in policy, we were at a fork in the road. The wise direction was to let the depression happen. Let the bad investments wash out of the system. Let housing prices fall. Let banks go broke. Let wages fall and permit the market to reallocate all resources from bubble projects to projects that make economic sense. That was the direction chosen by the Reagan administration in 1981, and by the Harding administration in 1921. The result in both cases was a short downturn followed by recovery.

The Bush administration, in a policy later followed by the Obama administration, instead attempted a tactic of dream incubation as portrayed in the recent film Inception. The idea was to inject artificial stimulus into the macroeconomic environment. There were random spending programs, massive buyouts of bad debt using phony money, gargantuan tax tricks, incentive programs for throwing good money after bad, and hiring strategies to weave illusions about how all is well.

In the movie, the goal of the dream incubation was to implant an idea into an unsuspecting subject's head that would cause him to act differently than he otherwise would have. In the real-life version of inception, the state tried to implant in all our heads the idea that there was no depression, no economic collapse, no housing crisis, no pushback on real-estate prices, and really no serious problem at all that the state cannot fix provided we are obedient subjects and do what we are told.

In the movie version, the attempted inception is on a time clock. The dream weavers can only keep the subject in a state of slumber so long. In the real-life version, things are much messier. The headlines have spoken about the impending recovery every day for all this time, and yet the evidence has never really been there. All the stimulus really did was forestall events a bit longer, but it hasn't prevented them.

Now, with the stock markets melting and the near-universal consensus that we are back in recession, everyone is awake. It is pretty clear that the inception did not take. The unemployment data look absolutely terrible. As the Wall Street Journal points out, only 59 percent of men age 20 and over have a full-time job (in the 1950s, that figure was 85 percent). Only 61 percent of all people over 20 have any kind of job now.

That's only the most conspicuous problem. No one really knows just how much further the real-estate market would fall under market-clearing conditions. The actual status of the car industry is anyone's guess. Business borrowing is going nowhere. Total industrial and commercial loans are actually at their lowest point of the whole depression. Payrolls generally are still sweeping downwards.

With an economy like ours, and a population to support with its long-held expectations of material investment, an environment like this can produce despair. People are talking about the death of the American dream, perhaps even the collapse of the American empire along the lines of Rome in days of old. Evidence is emerging by the day, as municipalities shut down street lamps and cut back on the hours at public schools. Governments that do not have access to the printing press are curbing everything.

Meanwhile, the state, as if it is trying to keep us hooked up to its failed machine, has its central bank trying to pump in more money and credit, with interest rates nearly zero. No matter how much this tactic has failed, our money masters still can't seem to face the fact that it is not working. There are very few takers these days for the phony-money loans. There is a widespread perception that inflation is on a hair trigger, so that if the expansion campaign ever really does stick, we could find ourselves in a ghastly disaster of hyperinflation.

The only really good trends exist in two worlds right now. In the digital world, we see growth and expansion and progress. This sector is not as heavily hooked up to manipulations of the Keynesian elite, and its development has proceeded at a clip even in a depression.

The other sector that shows great improvement is the intellectual sector. The Austrian School of economics is sweeping away Keynesian fallacies. The Keynesians took on this depression and they have lost the battle. That much is obvious to everyone but the most dedicated New York Times economics columnist. For anyone with an open mind, the economics of the Austrian School has become the prevailing mode of thinking for our time.

I wish Murray Rothbard were around to see this. Ludwig von Mises, F.A. Hayek, and Henry Hazlitt, too. Their ideas on economics were forged against great resistance from the mainstream. Today, they are becoming the new mainstream among anyone who is not engaged in lucid dreaming of prosperity, made possible by the printing press.

ows great improvement is the intellectual sector. The Austrian School of economics is sweeping away Keynesian fallacies. The Keynesians took on this depression and they have lost the battle. That much is obvious to everyone but the most dedicated New York Times economics columnist. For anyone with an open mind, the economics of the Austrian School has become the prevailing mode of thinking for our time.

I wish Murray Rothbard were around to see this. Ludwig von Mises, F.A. Hayek, and Henry Hazlitt, too. Their ideas on economics were forged against great resistance from the mainstream. Today, they are becoming the new mainstream among anyone who is not engaged in lucid dreaming of prosperity, made possible by the printing press.

Llewellyn H. Rockwell Jr. is chairman of the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama, editor of LewRockwell.com, and author of The Left, the Right, and the State. Send him mail. See Llewellyn H. Rockwell Jr.'s article archives.

© 2010 Copyright Ludwig von Mises - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife