Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20
U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" - 27th Jun 20
Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals - 27th Jun 20
Why People Have Always Held Gold - 27th Jun 20
Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance - 27th Jun 20
INTEL x86 Chip Giant Stock Targets Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for 2020's Growth - 25th Jun 20
Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here - 25th Jun 20
Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong - 25th Jun 20
Silver Price Trend Analysis - 24th Jun 20
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started - 24th Jun 20
Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal - 24th Jun 20
WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised - 24th Jun 20
All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold - 24th Jun 20
Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range - 23rd Jun 20
Elon Musk Mocks Nikola Motors as “Dumb.” Is He Right? - 23rd Jun 20
MICROSOFT Transforming from PC Software to Cloud Services AI, Deep Learning Giant - 23rd Jun 20
Stock Market Decline Resumes - 22nd Jun 20
Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead - 22nd Jun 20
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? - 22nd Jun 20
Most Shoppers have Stopped Following Supermarket Arrows, is Coughing the New Racism? - 22nd Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Gold Bull Market set to resume

Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis Jan 21, 2007 - 11:15 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities Gold has been in a corrective pattern since the May 2006 peak, attempting to build a base in anticipation of the resumption of the bull market. Now finally, Gold appears ready to resume the up trend with clear technical indicators signaling a breakout is imminent.


Gold About to break higher

Free Elliott Wave Tutorial

Technical Analysis

  1. Price Patterns - The price pattern being played out by Gold since the May 06 highs is that of a symmetrical triangle, which usually breaks in favour of the preceding trend which in this case is higher.
  2. Resistance - The up channel line is containing the up trend.
  3. Support - Immediate support lies below the last low (2) at 600. Major support is at 560. though 600 is expected to hold any immediate correction.
  4. MACD - (Bottom indicator) - The MACD is also in a symmetrical triangle, though in a neutral state, which suggests a break higher in gold could carry someway before the metal next reaches an overbought state.
  5. Elliott Waves - The basic elliott wave pattern suggests an ABC correction which bottomed in October 2006, and subsequent price action supports the start of a new leg higher for GOLD in the forms of Wave 1 UP, and the corrective Wave 2 down. So the elliott wave pattern supports other TA as it should be used as a secondary indicator rather a primary indicator of trend.
  6. % Levels - The symmetrical triangle pattern measures 190 points and therefore key %'s are : 50% = 635, Current resistance, 61.8% = 657. Peak of Wave 1. 100% = 730, May peak, 150% = 825, - 1st Target, 161.8% =847 - 2nd Target. 200% = 920 - 3rd Target.
  7. Up trend Line - .The key support trendline is along the A and C lows. The current correction as identified by wave 2 failed to get anywhere near this support trendline, which is a sign of strength
  8. Inter-market Analysis - What's not gone unnoticed is gold's relative strength in the face of breakdowns in other metals and commodities such as copper and crude oil. Thus suggests strong support for gold during the correction in anticipation of the resumption of the bull market.
  9. Time - Gold has now unwound its overbought state, having corrected for 7 months since the peak in May 06, which sets the scene for a substantial rally in terms of time and price.

Conclusion - Gold is looking very bullish as it is about to break out of the symmetrical triangle pattern, with other supporting analysis suggesting this to be imminent. The up trend is likely to carry gold beyond the previous high set in May 06, upwards and onwards towards to 847 and eventually to over 900, targeting 920 this year !

Buy Trigger - The two key buy triggers for Gold are 636 and 658. With gold at 636, it is on the verge of confirming a break of the first trigger. The best position would be a rolling spot contract. Or longer term investors can hold gold directly at bullionvault.com
Target - A break above 658 would target 847.
Stop-Loss - A position at the current price of 636 would require a stop at 600. A break of 658 at 626.

By Nadeem Walayat

(c) MarketOracle.co.uk 2007

Disclaimer - This Forecast / Trade Scenerio is provided for general information purposes only and not a solicitation or recommendation to enter into any market position, and you are reminded to seek independent professional advice before entering into any investments or trading positions.

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis online publication. We aim to cut through the noise cluttering traditional sources of market analysis and get to the key points of where the markets are at and where they are expected to move to next ! http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

This article maybe reproduced if reprinted in its entirety with links to http://www.marketoracle.co.uk


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

john allison
06 Aug 07, 21:26
gold

from all reports it seems to be the time to be

involved in the gold market


ranna
22 Nov 07, 08:36
Guest Request for Oil $100

I am writing to you from Press Tv in regards to a show i have on Sunday 24/11/07 at 18:00GMT.

We will be discussing Oil reaching USD 100, and some of the other issues that will be raised are the Iranian Oil minister said the rising of the prices are unreal. Also the fact that gold is higher against the dollar in the USA.

if you do have a representative available to appear on a live broadcast with a panel of other experts located around the world, then please let me know.

kind regards,

Ranna Mosavie

0208XXXXXXX


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules