Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Buying Levels Q2 2020 - 1st Jun 20
M2 Velocity Collapses – Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up? - 1st Jun 20
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum - 1st Jun 20
AMD 3900XT, 3800XT, 3600XT Refresh Means Zen 3 4000 AMD CPU's Delayed for 5nm Until 2021? - 1st Jun 20
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like TRADE.com are the Future of Trading - 1st Jun 20
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Agri-Food's Price Trends Diverging from Gold

Commodities / Agricultural Commodities Jan 25, 2011 - 12:05 PM GMT

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAn old saying goes, "Lots of ways to skin a cat." Given the rise in Agri-Food prices over the past about four years that may be a skill that becomes rediscovered in the years ahead. While growing up near St. Louis one of the more interesting experiences was a visit to the now long shut downtown open air farmers' market. One of the rules for the purveyors of meat was that rabbits had to have the unskinned feet attached. No one apparently wanted to buy cat, and have some unscrupulous seller substitute rabbit.


Agri-Food vs $Gold

As the green line in the above chart portrays, the Agri-Food Price Index has more than doubled in the past four years. How many industries around the world have experienced the selling price of their product move higher that dramatically? Over the same period of time we also note, using the red line, that the price of $Gold has not kept up with the price of Agri-Food.

One of the big lessons of this past year has been that Agri-Foods are not produced in a factory. They are also produced, with rare exception, one time of the year. They are grown in dirt, not the nearest social network site. In 2010, Russia barred the exportation of wheat. Wheat in Russia, as is the case in most countries, is harvested only one time a year. Worlds will not know till near the middle of this year if any Russian wheat will be exported. A complacent world expected Australia to help fill the gap, only to have that game rained out.

China has indeed been a massive miracle of industrial production over the past decade. That nation has demonstrated an uncanny ability to build a plethora of goods at wonderfully low prices. From televisions to solar panels, China can produce vast surplus of many things. That is, with the exception of Agri-Food.

With Agri-Food, it must increasingly import them. In 2010 that China was a net importer of corn became painfully apparent as the price of corn moved dramatically higher. It had actually achieved that status the year before by importing distillers dry grain. Was part of President Hu's visit to the U.S. in part to discover the minimum bid for Iowa?

Agri-Food vs $Gold and SP 500

Many have benefitted from the inadequate supplies of Agri-Food, and in particular the higher prices. In above chart, the green line portrays what Agri-Equities have been doing over the past several years. Solid brown line is for $Gold. While both have arrived at about the same spot on the graph, they took different paths.

A naive review of that graph might also conclude that Agri-Equities and $Gold have moved together. On the contrary, they have not moved in close conjunction with each other. Coefficient of determination(R2) is only 4%. That means that combining Agri-Equities with $Gold in a portfolio would have produced the about same return as either, but would have done so with far less total investment risk. Not owning Agri-Equities is a risky investment position, especially in a world with an increasingly inadequate Agri-Food supply.

Our 4th Agri-Food Commodities: An Investment Alternative, January 2011 was recently released to considerable interest. This analysis, though statistical, dry, and boring, has rapidly become the standard for reporting and analyzing returns produced by Agri-Food commodity prices. It thoroughly documents the superiority of returns produced by Agri-Food commodity prices, which ultimately drive the returns on Agri-Investments. This report can be previewed at our web site or at www.scribd.com

By Ned W Schmidt CFA, CEBS

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS is from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS, publisher of The Agri-Food Value View, a monthly exploration of the Agri-Food grand cycle being created by China, India, and Eco-energy. To contract Ned or to learn more, use this link: www.agrifoodvalueview.com.

Copyright © 2011 Ned W. Schmidt - All Rights Reserved

Ned W Schmidt Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules