Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
This Dividend Aristocrat Is Leading the 5G Revolution - 22nd July 19
What the World Doesn’t Need Now is Lower Interest Rates - 22nd July 19
My Biggest 'Fear' For Silver - 22nd July 19
Reasons to Buy Pre-Owned Luxury Car from a Certified Dealer - 22nd July 19
Stock Market Increasing Technical Weakness - 22nd July 19
What Could The Next Gold Rally Look Like? - 22nd July 19
Stock Markets Setting Up For A Volatility Explosion – Are You Ready? - 22nd July 19
Anatomy of an Impulse Move in Gold and Silver Precious Metals - 22nd July 19
What you Really need to Know about the Stock Market - 22nd July 19
Has Next UK Financial Crisis Just Started? Bank Accounts Being Frozen - 21st July 19
Silver to Continue Lagging Gold, Will Struggle to Overcome $17 - 21st July 19
What’s With all the Weird Weather?  - 21st July 19
Halifax Stopping Customers Withdrawing Funds Online - UK Brexit Banking Crisis Starting? - 21st July 19
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021 - 20th July 19
MICROSOFT Cortana, Azure AI Platform Machine Intelligence Stock Investing Video - 20th July 19
Africa Rising – Population Explosion, Geopolitical and Economic Consquences - 20th July 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Results Analysis - 20th July 19
This Is Your Last Chance to Dump Netflix Stock - 19th July 19
Gold and US Stock Mid Term Election and Decade Cycles - 19th July 19
Precious Metals Big Picture, as Silver Gets on its Horse - 19th July 19
This Technology Everyone Laughed Off Is Quietly Changing the World - 19th July 19
Green Tech Stocks To Watch - 19th July 19
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals - 18th July 19
AI Machine Learning PC Custom Build Specs for £2,500 - Scan Computers 3SX - 18th July 19
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Stock Market Confirmed Uptrend

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 Apr 02, 2011 - 10:08 AM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe SPX/DOW confirmed a new uptrend this week. The uptrend will be counted as Major wave 3 of Primary wave III. This uptrend should last into June with a targeted range of SPX 1440-1462. For the week economic reports were mixed: ten improving and nine declining. On the upbeat we had personal income/spending, PCE prices, pending home sales, auto sales, the monetary base and leading wbase, the WLEI, the payrolls report, and the unemployment rate declined.

On the downbeat, Case-Shiller home prices, construction spending, the M1-multiplier, factory orders, consumer confidence, the Chicago PMI, the ADP index and weekly jobless claims weakened, and ISM manufacturing declined. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.45%. Asian markets rose 2.0%, European markets rose 2.0%, the Commodity equity group rose 1.5%, and the DJ World index rose 1.5%. US bonds lost 0.2%, Crude rose 2.5%, Gold slipped 0.1%, and the USD was -0.5%. Next week we have the FOMC minutes, ISM services, and Consumer credit.

LONG TERM: bull market

The bull market officially resumed this week with the Mar11 uptrend confirmation for Major wave 3 of Primary wave III. Major wave 2 had declined from Feb11 to Mar11 and SPX 1344 to 1249. Major wave 1 had lasted from July10 to Feb11 and rising from SPX 1011 to 1344. Typically the third wave of a third wave is the strongest part of a bull market. We’re not really expecting this type of outcome this time around. In this bull market the first waves have been quite strong, while the third waves have been a bit weaker, and the fifth waves quite weak in comparison.

When we review the weekly chart we observe Major wave 2 of Primary I, and Major wave 2 of Primary III had similar characteristics. Both started with a negative divergence, both lasted one month, both declined just under SPX 100 points, and both approached an RSI oversold but never actually hit it. Also, our bull market characteristics remain intact. RSI gets extremely overbought but hardly oversold, and MACD in positive territory most of the time and hardly at neutral.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend underway

The bull market wave pattern, thus far, is quite clear. This bull market is Cycle wave [1] of a multi-decade Supercycle wave 3. This Cycle wave bull market will divide into five Primary waves. Primary wave I completed in Apr10 at SPX 1220. It consisted of five Major waves: Major 1 SPX 956 Jun09, Major 2 SPX 869 Jly09, Major 3 SPX 1150 Jan10, Major 4 SPX 1045 Feb10, and Major 5 SPX 1220 Apr10. Primary wave II then corrected from Apr10-Jly10 and from SPX 1220 to 1011. Then Primary wave III began. Thus far, only Major waves 1 and 2 of Primary III have completed: Major 1 SPX 1344 Feb11, and Major 2 SPX 1249 Mar11. Major waves 3, 4 and 5 are still required before Primary III concludes.

Major wave 3, the current uptrend, should consist of five Intermediate waves. All impulsing Major waves divide into five Intermediate waves. Generally, we’re expecting about a 100 point rally, a 50 point pullback, another 100 point rally, followed by another 50 point pullback, and then the final 100 point rally to complete the five waves. This would give us a nice five Intermediate wave advance, of about 200 points overall, from SPX 1249 into the targeted 1440-1462 range. Currently the SPX has rallied from 1249 to 1338 with the largest pullback only 17 points. It appears we’re still in Intermediate wave one.


Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum displayed another negative divergence at friday’s SPX 1338 high and finished the week at neutral. The uptrend, thus far, can be counted as three Minor waves: wave 1 SPX 1301, wave 2 SPX 1284 and wave 3 SPX 1338; with waves 1 and 3 about equal. Friday’s negative divergence suggests another pullback is underway to oversold levels. This could set up a Minor wave 4 pullback to about SPX 1320, then another rally to either SPX 1344 or the 1363 pivot to end Intermediate wave one. This potential scenario could serve as a potential roadmap for the week ahead. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 2.0%. India’s BSE and China’s SSEC are in confirmed uptrends.

European markets were all higher on the week and also gained 2.0%. Only England FTSE is in a confirmed uptrend at this point.

The Commodity equity markets were all higher on the week and gained 1.5%. Brazil’s BVSP and Russia’s RTSI remain in uptrends.

The DJ World index gained 1.5% on the week and is in a confirmed uptrend.


Bond prices have been declining for a couple of weeks: -0.2% this week. Despite all the Bond Bubble – Crash and Burn talk over the past two years Bond prices have remained in a 115-128 trading range, and yields have remained between 2.33% and 4.01%.

Crude is making new highs again in its uptrend. It hit $108 on friday, +2.5% for the week. We still have an upside target of $111 for this uptrend.

Gold is uptrending but had a choppy week -0.1%. Silver is still leading and we’re expecting an important upside move in both shortly.

The USD is still downtrending and lost 0.5% on the week. It was up nearly 1% at one point on friday, but gave it all back to end negative on the day.


Light economic week ahead. Tuesday kicks it off with ISM services and the FOMC minutes. On thursday, weekly Jobless claims and Consumer credit. Then on friday Wholesale inventories. On monday FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech, after hours, at the Atlanta FED. Then on wednesday FED director Hunter gives Sentate testimony. Looks like a quiet week ahead on the US front. Best to you and yours!


After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2011 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules