We could make the case that today Apple (AAPL) broke down from a 4-month top formation when it sliced beneath 328.00-326.00 support (now resistance). As long as AAPL continues to consolidate below 326-328, the bears will remain in directional control.

The next significant support plateau within Apple's powerful 2009-2011 uptrend is 307.50, which is the coordinate of the rising 200-day moving average. That said, however, the price structure today is probing its lower Bollinger Band line at 323.70. If AAPL weakness persists right into its earnings release Wednesday after the close, and AAPL presses about 1.5% to 2.0% beneath the lower BBnd line, then the intraday target window for AAPL during the next 48 hours likely will be in the 318.00-315.00 (again, prior to Wed's earnings).

Conversely, to get any traction on the upside -- and to trigger signals that a significant near-term low has been established -- AAPL must hurdle and sustain above 330-332.50.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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