Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19
The IPO Market Is Nowhere Near a Bubble - 9th Oct 19
US Stock Markets Trade Sideways – Waiting on News/Guidance  - 9th Oct 19
Amazon Selling Fake Hard Drives - 4tb WD Blue - How to Check Your Drive is Genuine  - 9th Oct 19
Whatever Happened to Philippines Debt Slavery?  - 9th Oct 19
Gold in the Negative Real Interest Rates Environment - 9th Oct 19
The Later United States Empire - 9th Oct 19
Gold It’s All About Real Interest Rates Not the US Dollar - 8th Oct 19
A Trump Impeachment Would Cause The Stock Market To Rally - 8th Oct 19
The Benefits of Applying for Online Loans - 8th Oct 19
Is There Life Left In Cannabis - 8th Oct 19
Yield Curve Inversion Current State - 7th Oct 19
Silver Is Cheap – And Getting Cheaper - 7th Oct 19
Stock Market Back to Neutral - 7th Oct 19
Free Market Capitalism: Laughably Predictable - 7th Oct 19
Four Fundamental Reasons to Buy Gold and Silver - 7th Oct 19
Gold and Silver Taking a Breather - 7th Oct 19
Check Engine Warning Light ECU Dealer Diagnostic Cost - Land Rover Discovery Sport - 6th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Swiss Government Bluffing on Swiss Franc Currency Target?

Currencies / Fiat Currency Aug 15, 2011 - 03:38 AM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Currencies

Bloomberg reports Franc Weakens Against Dollar, Euro After Report Currency Target Discussed

The franc weakened after SonntagsZeitung reported over the weekend that the Swiss government and the central bank are in “intense” talks over setting a possible target for the currency, citing unidentified people close to the situation.


Talk is Cheap

OK, once you decide a target, how do you get it there? I addressed that question previously in Swiss Central Bank Ponders "Temporary" Peg to Euro; Franc Trades Sharply Lower; This a Bluff? What Does it Take to Maintain a Peg?

Is the Threat a Bluff?

Just because someone discusses something does not mean the discussion was serious. We cannot tell.

However, we do know what a currency peg requires: To maintain a currency peg, one must buy (or sell) virtually unlimited quantities of a foreign currency, as much as the market supplies, to maintain the desired conversion rate.

Interest rate policy works the same way. To maintain an interest rate target, the Fed (or any central bank in general) must supply or subtract unlimited amounts of currency to maintain its target interest rate. This happens continually.

If the rate is targeted lower than what the market thinks, the Fed or Central Bank must print enough money to keep the target. Likewise, if the Fed sets a rate higher than the market dictates, it must drain as much money as necessary to keep rates to the peg.

Does anyone really think this continual micro-manipulation of currency to maintain an arbitrary interest rate (set by central planners who do not know what they are doing) is a good idea?

Currency Peg Risks

Back to the Swiss Franc: A currency peg is much riskier, because the defense is not in relation to its own currency as it is with interest rates. Moreover, one might expect wild swings and an immediate snap-back once the peg is removed. Thus "temporary" might mean for as long as the Euro crisis continues, and that might be a very long "temporary".

Finally, note the relative size of Switzerland vs. all the Eurozone countries. Buying "unlimited" Euros could rapidly get out of hand.

China goes through the same setup to maintain its "widening" peg to the US dollar. However, China does not allow much external trade of the Yuan.

The above discussion does not answer the bluff question, but it does state what the parameters of the defense must be. All things considered, I do believe it is a bluff.

Let's return to the question: Is it a Bluff? I still don't know but now I think it's more likely than I previously thought.

Bear in mind, setting a target and hoping the market reacts to it, and officially setting a peg are different things. However, once bureaucrats start marching down a certain path it is hard to get them to stop, no matter how futile the march.

I have never seen currency intervention work. It's hard enough if you are a large country, but the size difference in economies and forex trading says the idea cannot work unless the target just happens to be at or near where the market thinks it should be.

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2011 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules