Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19
The Exponential Stocks Bull Market Explained - Video - 13th Mar 19
TSP Recession Indicator - Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966 - 13th Mar 19
Stock Investors Beware The Signs Of Recession / Deflation - 13th Mar 19
Is the Stock Market Still in a Bear Market? - 13th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - 13th Mar 19
Gold Up-to-Date' COT Report: A Maddening Déjà Vu - 12th Mar 19
Save Fintech? Ban Short Selling. It's Not That Simple - 12th Mar 19
Palladium Blowup Could Expose Scam of Gold & Silver Futures - 12th Mar 19
Next Recession: Concentrating Future Losses & Bringing Them Forward In Time As Profits - 12th Mar 19
The Shift of the Philippine Peso Regime - 12th Mar 19
Theresa May BrExit Back Stab Deal Counting Down to Resignation, Tory Leadership Election - 12th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth

The Vigilante's View on the Markets, Gold & Gold Stocks

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011 Sep 23, 2011 - 03:23 AM GMT

By: Jeff_Berwick


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTimes like these are why we are dollar vigilantes.  Talk is incessant about a possible collapse of the European Union - something which we consider to be a certainty.  They can let it collapse now or paper it over again and see if they can keep that dead man walking a little longer.

Meanwhile, in the US, the talking heads in mass media look dazed and bewildered that, perhaps, the US is entering "back into recession".  Almost all of them have been brainwashed at the Keynesian alter and actually think the US economy has been "growing".  The truth of the matter is that the US has been in a depression since 2000.  It's an highly inflationary depression, however, and it has managed to fool the great majority.  They still listen to government statistics that are fallacious, such as the GDP (see The GDP is a Fallacy).  But if they just opened their eyes and could see through the fog of decades of brainwashing and propaganda, they'd see that the true US unemployment rate is probably closer to 23%, over 45 million people are in today's version of soup lines (now called food stamps) and the US stock markets, in real terms (gold), are down 90% from their highs in 2000.

The scary part, for everyone, is that this depression is just getting started and the more they try to "stimulate" the economy, the worse it will get.

The great bearded one, the one who centrally plans the US economy, Ben Bernanke, added one word into his speech (the word "significant") when talking about downside risks and the lemmings all rushed off the edge of the cliff.  It's confusing as to why they would listen to anything Bernanke says.  Besides the fact that he is the leader of a criminal money counterfeiting cartel he also has been almost shockingly wrong on every prediction or forecast he has ever made.

Almost everything sold off today... even taking down gold and gold stocks with it.  Let's take a look at what kind of damage was done to the assets in our portfolio.

Gold is now down to where it was about a month ago.  Nothing too serious.  Although if it goes much lower it could break support and could see a return to the $1500s.  Perhaps even $1450.  If that happens we will be shouting from the rooftops to buy.  However, we hold gold bullion mainly for safety and as a hedge and so it doesn't matter if gold does go down another $150 or up $150... it doesn't mean we'd be selling now in either case.  All it means is that we'd be collecting pop bottles on the side of the road to buy more gold at $1500.

Now, the thing we hold with hopes of significant profits is gold stocks.  Let's take a look at them today.  First, the majors:

A noticeable swan dive.  Yes, that's for sure.  But, just like gold, it just takes us to where we were a month ago after a nice rally that lasted all summer.  Could it go down to 500?  Sure.  Anything is possible.  And, again, if it does, we'll be borrowing money from relatives to put into the market.  But, we think the gold stocks can rise from here even if gold sits around $1600... they are still very undervalued.

And, finally?  Everyone is eyeing the juniors.  We received a lot of email today saying how this is starting to feel a lot like 2008.  Let's look at the TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX) which is a reasonable proxy for mining juniors.  First, let's look at its chart since 2005.

The junior mining markets are the most volatile in the world and that is why we rarely have more than 15% of our entire portfolio in them... they can go up 1,000% but many of the stocks can also go to zero.  This chart shows that as well as anything.

During the 2008 segment of the crisis, the TSX-V index fell from over 3,000 to under 700 in a span of a few months.  It then more than tripled by March of this year and is off more than 30% since then.  The question everyone is asking is if we are headed for that massive dive-bomb again this time around.

TDV subscribers know all of TDV Senior Analyst, Ed Bugos' past thoughts and research on this question and know that he is not expecting that.  To add to Ed's analysis I submit this chart.  This is a chart of the TSX Venture Index in terms of gold, not dollars.

This chart shows that in terms of gold, we are already near the 2008 bottom.  And this at a time when gold has doubled in price in the same time frame, from $800 to over $1600.  Can they still go lower?  Sure.  Anything can happen.

But, its more likely that they we will see 100%+ type gains over the next few months on the juniors.  And, if the general public wakes up to what is going on, 1,000% and 10,000% gains aren't out of the question for certain juniors.  Even just a return to where juniors were in 2007, versus gold, would entail a 500% pop.

Obviously we aren't yet at that point.  But every day that central bankers try to paper over the obvious structural issues in their artificial, non-free market financial system we draw closer to a true gold stock mania.

This weekend Ed Bugos will have a full update to subscribers on what the action of this week portends and will look at opportunities to scoop up some gold mining stocks cheap.  Subscribe to TDV today to keep abreast of all the action in the gold and gold mining shares and receive actionable info on how to take advantage of opportunities in the sector

Subscribe to TDV today (90 day moneyback guarantee) to access our Special Report on How to Own Gold as well as get complete access to our newsletter and portfolio selections.

The Dollar Vigilante is a free-market financial newsletter focused on covering all aspects of the ongoing financial collapse. The newsletter has news, information and analysis on investments for safety and for profit during the collapse including investments in gold, silver, energy and agriculture commodities and publicly traded stocks. As well, the newsletter covers other aspects including expatriation, both financially and physically and news and info on health, safety and other ways to survive the coming collapse of the US Dollar safely and comfortably. The Dollar Vigilante offers a free newsletter at

© 2011 Copyright Jeff Berwick - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules