Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Micro Strategy Bubble Mania - 10th May 24
Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports - 10th May 24
Bitcoin Price Swings Analysis - 9th May 24
Could Chinese Gold Be the Straw That Breaks the Dollar's Back? - 9th May 24
The Federal Reserve Is Broke! - 9th May 24
The Elliott Wave Crash Course - 9th May 24
Psychologically Prepared for Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pull Corrections 2024 - 8th May 24
Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now - 8th May 24
Copper: The India Factor - 8th May 24
Gold 2008 and 2022 All Over Again? Stocks, USDX - 8th May 24
Holocaust Survivor States Israel is Like Nazi Germany, The Fourth Reich - 8th May 24
Fourth Reich Invades Rafah Concentration Camp To Kill Palestinian Children - 8th May 24
Banxe Reviews: Revolutionising Financial Transactions with Innovative Solutions - 3rd May 24
MRNA - The beginning of the end of cancer? - 3rd May 24
The Future of Gaming: What's Coming Next? - 3rd May 24
What is A Split Capital Investment Trust? - 3rd May 24
AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season Stock Market Correction Opportunities - 29th Apr 24
The Federal Reserve's $34.5 Trillion Problem - 29th Apr 24
Inflation Still Runs Hot, Gold and Silver Prices Stabilize - 29th Apr 24
GOLD, OIL and WHEAT STOCKS - 29th Apr 24
Is Bitcoin Still an Asymmetric Opportunity? - 29th Apr 24
AI Tech Stocks Earnings Season Opportunities - 28th Apr 24
S&P Stock Market Detailed Trend Forecast Into End 2024 - 25th Apr 24
US Presidential Election Year Equity Performance in the Presence of an Inverted Yield Curve- 25th Apr 24
Stock Market "Bullish Buzz" Reaches Highest Level in 53 Years - 25th Apr 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Lottery Odds Events Keeping Gold and Silver Prices Contained

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Oct 04, 2011 - 02:30 AM GMT

By: Rob_Kirby


From Bill Murphy’s “Midas commentary” on Friday, Sept. 30, 2011:

HSBC has published an interesting study of the recent precious metal volatility:

"Based on almost 40 years of data, the drop in gold prices last week represented a 3 standard deviation move, down 8.54%. According to the data, this has occurred only seven times since gold became freely convertible in 1972. This made the week ended 23 September the seventh-worst week in terms of percentage price performance in almost 40 years of trading, or more than 2,000 weeks.

The last time volatility was this high was in the week ended 21 March 2008, when Bear Stearns collapsed. To find higher weekly volatility levels,we have to go back to the first week of March 1983, when gold prices dropped more than 11%...

Based on 41 years of data, the drop in silver prices last week represented a 5 standard deviation move, falling 23.42% for week ended 23 September. According to the data, declines of this magnitude are rare and have occurred only four times since 1970"

I was so taken with the news that HSBC is reporting that silver’s most recent fall in price was a 5 std. deviation move – I asked good friend and resident Ph.D. [Dr. Jim Willie] in statistics what the odds are of a 5 standard deviation move.

His Reply:

ANSWER :  1 in 1.744 million

any questions, just ask

/ jim

Devs    bell interior prob.                      tail probability              odds
1          0.84134474607                       0.317310508               3.151
2          0.97724986805                       0.045500264               21.978
3          0.99865010197                       0.002699796               370.398
4          0.99996832876                       6.33425E-05               15,787
5          0.99999971335                       5.73303E-07                1,744,278
6          0.99999999901                       1.97318E-09                506,797,317

The latest assault on silver was not a product of free market capitalism.  It was a contrived, manufactured event

Be advised folks, anyone claiming that our global financial morass is the product of “capitalism” is sadly mistaken or shilling for those who are inflicting these lottery-odds salvos against tangible wealth and real money.

Got physical precious metal yet?

By Rob Kirby

Rob Kirby is proprietor of and sales agent for Bullion Custodial Services.  Subscribers to the Kirbyanalytics newsletter can look forward to a weekend publication analyzing many recent global geo-political events and more.  Subscribe to Kirbyanalytics news letter here.  Buy physical gold, silver or platinum bullion here.

Copyright © 2011 Rob Kirby - All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Rob Kirby Archive

© 2005-2022 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in