Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 - 22nd Oct 21
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments - 22nd Oct 21
Bitcoin $100K or Ethereum $10K—which happens first? - 22nd Oct 21
This Isn’t Sci-Fi: How AI Is About To Disrupt This $11 Trillion Industry - 22nd Oct 21
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

A Few Chinese Bad News Bears To Spoil A Happy New Year

Economics / China Economy Dec 26, 2011 - 12:47 PM GMT

By: EconMatters

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGoldman's Jim O'Neill noted in a recent interview that the world's future prosperity depends on China's growth. While we don't totally agree with that assessment as we see China as one of the many contributory factors towards world's future, there are some recent bad news bears coming out of China that could spell troubles for markets, at least in 2012.


Export Growth Could Drop to Zero in 2012 

The General Administration of Customs released November trade figures showing export growth continued to decelerate and was at their most sluggish in two years.  At a news conference, China's Commerce Ministry spokesperson warned,
"The overall trade environment next year for China will be complicated, partly due to the economic uncertainties in the European countries, and I should say that the export situation in the first quarter of next year will be very severe."

Wang Tao, an economist at UBS Securities noted China's export growth is expected to "drop to zero in 2012," which will have a "sizable negative impact on the economy," and that the export figures underline "shifts in the export structure - some traditional lower-end and labor-intensive sectors may be losing market share to cheaper producers." (See Chart Below)


FDI Sees Its First YoY Drop in 28 Months 

Part of China's recent explosive growth has to do with foreign investments pouring into the country to capitalize on the expected burgeoning middle class income growth. But in November, China experienced its first year-on-year dip of 9.76%  in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 28 months primarily from a sharp drop in inflows from the United States, while investments from the European Union -- China's single largest trading partner -- were essentially flat.  (See Chart Below).

Moreover, this drop came on top of the first net capital outflow from China in four years in October, as investors fled emerging markets due to Europe's festering debt crisis.

Chart Source: ChinaDaily.com, 16 Dec. 2011

Manufacturing Tanks To Near Three-Year Low

China’s manufacturing contracted for the first time since February 2009 with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in November from 50.4 in October. (Read: China Manufacturing Tanks To Near 3-year Low)

The December number did not bode well either as the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI, an early indicator of China's industrial activity, showed China's factory output shrank again in December after new orders fell. (See Chart Below)
Chart Source: HSBC, 15 Dec. 2011

PBOC Reversing Course - How Bad Is The Economy? 

In early December, PBOC (The People's Bank of China), China's central bank, announced the first cut in banks’ reserve requirements since 2008, just two hours before the U.S. Federal Reserve led a global dollar liquidity injection to ease Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.  And there could be more easing on the way, as Reuters reported that data showed Chinese banks made 562 billion yuan of new loans in November, a shade more than forecast as Beijing gently eases tight credit conditions.

China has made controlling prices a top priority this year and implemented a series of tightening measures.   Inflation fell from a three-year high of 6.5% in July to 4.2% in November, which is still above Beijing's current inflation target of 4%.  And China's inflation battle is far from over as rising labor costs and higher input prices are among the factors that will continue to push up consumer price levels.

So the more interesting question is:
How bad is the real economy for China to reverse course taking on the risk of re-surging inflation pressures?
Escalating Social Unrest

Inflation and social unrest goes hand-in-hand and has toppled quite a few governments in the history book.  Judging from the recent Wukan Siege, the social unrest in China (due to disputes in wages, land grab, etc.) seems to have escalated in both scale and duration.  This could suggest a more serious mid-to-long-term undercurrent that would be challenging and delicate to handle for the central government.

Conclusion

From what we discussed so far, it is evident a pronounced China slowdown in the next year or so is inevitable with the nation's export-centric economy struggling with waning global demand, while undergoing domestic structural economic and demographic shifts.  Moreover, there could be some hidden debt bombs as a recent Bloomberg finding suggests that China's banks may be understating their exposure to runaway local borrowing by possibly billions of dollars that is raising fears of a government bailout.

How Beijing steers its economic and monetary policies in the next 2-3 years will be key to balance the country's inflation, growth and stability.  While we see a very low probability of a hard landing case for China, but based on the rationale of Jim O'Neill about how much the world depends on China's growth, then don't count on that much world prosperity, at least in 2012.

By EconMatters

http://www.econmatters.com/

The theory of quantum mechanics and Einstein’s theory of relativity (E=mc2) have taught us that matter (yin) and energy (yang) are inter-related and interdependent. This interconnectness of all things is the essense of the concept “yin-yang”, and Einstein’s fundamental equation: matter equals energy. The same theories may be applied to equities and commodity markets.

All things within the markets and macro-economy undergo constant change and transformation, and everything is interconnected. That’s why here at Economic Forecasts & Opinions, we focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the markets to help you achieve a great continuum of portfolio yin-yang equilibrium.

That's why, with a team of analysts, we at EconMatters focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the financial markets that matters to your portfolio.

© 2011 Copyright EconMatters - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in