Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19
Gold Price Gann Angle Update - 10th July 19
Crude Oil Prices and the 2019 Hurricane Season - 10th July 19
Can Gold Recover from Friday’s Strong Payrolls Hit? - 10th July 19
Netflix’s Worst Nightmare Has Come True - 10th July 19
LIMITLESS - Improving Cognitive Function and Fighting Brain Ageing Right Now! - 10th July 19
US Dollar Strength Will Drive Markets Higher - 10th July 19
Government-Pumped Student Loan Bubble Sets Up Next Financial Crisis - 10th July 19
Stock Market SPX 3000 Dream is Pushed Away: Pullback of 5-10% is Coming - 10th July 19
July 2019 GBPUSD Market Update and Outlook - 10th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Financial Markets 2012, Entering the Mayan’s Final Year

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012 Jan 01, 2012 - 05:49 AM GMT

By: PhilStockWorld

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYou would think, coming into what the Mayan’s may have predicted to be the final year for this planet, that people would want to make sure they get things right but no – most people just predict for next year a variation of what they thought would happen this year – no matter how wrong they were in 2011.  


Last January, the Dow was under 12,000 and we had Russell leadership as they tested the 800 line, now the Dow is the leader at 12,287 and the Russell is struggling at 745 but both in such a tight range that we could have pretty much skipped the whole year and we wouldn’t have missed anything.  

Although constantly asked, I do not like to make arbitrary predictions just because the year is winding down on the calendar.  The dirty little secret to my accurate prognostications is I WAIT until I actually see something that’s very likely to happen before I mention it.  This annoys many people who interview me, who are used to getting a prediction on pretty much anything they ask a guest, no matter how clueless that person is. 

That being said, last year, on December 19th, I wrote "It’s Never too Early to Predict the Future" and among other brilliant observations I noted: "I’d be gung-ho bullish now if I wasn’t worried the Euro will collapse as that is the fly in the ointment."  Here we are a year later and we survived that, as well as a nuclear catastrophe in Japan and revolutions in the Middle East and none of that caused the World to end, nor did it push oil over $100 for more than a short while, nor did it ever get gold to that magic $2,000 level.

So what’s it going to take?  What would it finally take to topple the now $60Tn global economy where EVERY Nation on Earth has proved that they are ready, willing and able to create Trillions of new Dollars/Euros/Francs/Yen/Yuan and drop them into the mix – until they find the recipe to make the Global Economy start to rise again.  Will too many cooks spoil the broth or is it just that a watched pot never boils and we are all a bit too impatient as we have to wait for the economic yeast to rise?

Read what I wrote last December 19th of last year – nothing has really changed but also, as I said at the time: "Obviously, I am fairly convinced that Global "leaders" are making all sorts of policy mistakes handling the economy and I do believe it will all end in disaster but that does NOT mean I am market bearish. "  

Think if it this way:  If you come across a fire that is consuming a house from the inside and the firemen show up and spray water on the outside, then I will stand there and tell you that the house will still burn to the ground.  However – I will also tell you that the house is going to be soaked in water.  The two things are not mutually exclusive – just as a slow-moving economic collapse and a booming stock market are not mutually exclusive – especially if that collapse is the result of a transfer of wealth from the working class to the investing class (see the 1920s).    

One prediction I was comfortable making this morning in Member Chat was that the move up in the Futures overnight was BS and our plan is to short the Dow at the open with something like the DIA $123 puts at about .50 but we’ll have to see where it actually opens.

Oil already dove from $100 back to $99 and we caught the action both ways yesterday as oil fell from $100 to $98.50 and we decided to go long at $98.50 and caught the ride back to $100 but today we have lost interest as it’s a crazy day and anything can happen so we’ll concentrate on the Dow, which has the potential to drop 100 points and give us a nice double or better on the DIA puts – which would be enough to buy those goggles where the eyes shaped like 2012 and that’s all we need to close out 2011, right?

My concern into next week (and we have 3 disaster hedges from Wednesday’s Alert to Members that are still playable this morning) is that we’re still testing our 2,603 line on the Nasdaq (see Wednesday’s post) and we’re only here in the first place on what looks like a very low volume, very manipulated rally so the bullish space we have outlined over the past two weeks on the chart, contains a gigantic air pocket – precisely the kind that gives us a very sharp drop to complete what will look like an M on the charts.  

But those are all things we can worry about next year.  For now, let’s just enjoy the end of 2011 and look forward to 2012.

A very Happy New Year to you and your family,

- Phil

Click here for a free trial to Stock World Weekly.

www.philstockworld.com

Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks). Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)

© 2011 Copyright  PhilStockWorld - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules