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The Commodities Super Cycle Rumbles Into 2008

News_Letter / Financial Markets Jan 06, 2008 - 03:31 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

News_Letter The commodities bull market continues to roar ahead with gold hitting new highs and crude oil flirting with $100 again, portfolios invested in the resources sectors continue to benefit.

Stock markets took a tumble in the first week of the new year achieving a short-term oversold state, therefore next week should see strength.


The Market Oracle Newsletter
January 6th , 2008            Issue #2 Vol. 2


Dear Registered Member,

The commodities bull market continues to roar ahead with gold hitting new highs and crude oil flirting with $100 again, portfolios invested in the resources sectors continue to benefit.

Stock markets took a tumble in the first week of the new year achieving a short-term oversold state, therefore next week should see strength.

The US economy continues to weaken as speculation grows that the US could tip into a recession this year, however election years do tend to be strongly bullish for stocks therefore there is plenty of scope for analysis of the different scenarios that are unfolding.

This weeks free treat is from Ned Schmidt, author of the The AGRI-FOOD VALUE VIEW newsletter, who has kindly made available at an opportune time his informative 24 page January Issue of his newsletter on the investment opportunities in the agricultural sector to our subscribed readership (download pdf - 551k).

Nadeem Walayat,
Editor of The Market Oracle

 

In This Issue
  1. US Economy Forecast 2008 - First Recession then Recovery
  2. Credit Crisis Deepens - ATM Withdrawl Limits Next?
  3. Fundamentals of Growing Public Debt a Big Negative for US Equities
  4. CRB Commodity Price Index Trend Manipulation
  5. 2008 - Break of the Financial System as PRIME Mortgages Go BUST
  6. Gold Investments 2007 Review and 2008 Forecasts
  7. United States Transfer of Sovereignty to Sovereign Wealth Funds
  8. Stock Market Trends for 2008
  9. 2008 Epic Battle Between Credit Crunch and Central banks Liquidity Flood
  10. Commodity Bull Market Super Cycle - Ready to Rumble on in 2008
1. US Economy Forecast 2008 - First Recession then Recovery

By: John_Mauldin

In this issue:
Forecast 2008: Recession and Recovery
18,000 Jobs? Not Really.
Housing: Going Down, Down, Down
Who's Got My Credit Default Swap Back?
Counterparty Risk is the Real Sleeper Issue
The Fed: Too Little, Too Late
Europe, Santa Barbara, China, and The Motley Fool

It's that time of year, when I throw caution to the wind and present my annual forecast issue. Jumping to the conclusion, I think a recession has begun, so the relevant question is to ask when the recovery will begin. We will look at the housing market, the continued implosion of the credit markets, and the deteriorating employment picture. Will the Fed worry more about employment and recession or about the very real inflation pressures? Oil? Gold? Which way the dollar? I am going to make some unusual calls, as well as highlight what I think will be the next looming problem in the growing credit crisis. We'll try to cover it all in just a few pages.

Read Article

2. Credit Crisis Deepens - ATM Withdrawl Limits Next?

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Citibank is now limiting ATM withdrawals in New York City , blaming it on “isolated fraudulent activity.” If the fraudulent activity is isolated, why punish all your clients in a given region? This is certainly causing distress among New Yorkers because of the high cost of living in that city. Why not simply increase security on the ATMs? It looks an awful lot like Citibank is experimenting with rationing their cash outflows.

Read Article

3. Fundamentals of Growing Public Debt a Big Negative for US Equities

By: Brian_Bloom

Summary
For those who are only interested in the bottom line, it doesn't matter what the charts are saying. Neither US equities nor US Treasuries represent sensible investments from a fundamental perspective. Investments should be in assets which offer protection against the demise of the US Dollar.

Read Article

4. CRB Commodity Price Index Trend Manipulation

By: Zeal_LLC

Around 33 centuries ago, one of the most famous men in history hiked up a mountain probably now known as Jabal al Lawz in today's northwestern Saudi Arabia . There Moses met with God. God Himself carved commandments into stone tablets for Moses to share with His people, the Israelites. These commandments eventually became a major part of the legal foundation for western civilization.

One of these commandments preserved in the book of Exodus is “You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor.” While most obviously commanding us not to lie, I believe this commandment goes well beyond lying. It probably also includes presenting true information in such a way that it will likely mislead when interpreted. A modern word that comes to mind along these lines is “nuancing”.

Read Article

5. 2008 - Break of the Financial System as PRIME Mortgages Go BUST

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The year 2008 will be the year that THINGS JUST PLAIN BREAK. It will be a truly deadly year, unavoidably lethal to the USEconomy and especially to the US banking sector. Nothing has been repaired. Some tangible solutions will be offered in the next section, all legitimate in a real world. However, we do NOT live in a real world, but rather in a Fairy Tale world of US Hegemony and Wall Street with a choke hold around the US entire system. Managed inflation is the policy never to be reversed, until total breakdown occurs. Treason is rampant, called simply Power Games.

Read Article

6. Gold Investments 2007 Review and 2008 Forecasts

By: Gold_Investments

Gold Price Review
Gold closed 2007 at $834.50 per ounce. Gold closed at a new monthly high close (and near record annual high and all time non inflation adjusted high) as investors again sought the safe haven appeal of gold. And with the dollar falling sharply again (last week recording its worst week against the euro in more than a year) – precious metals were well supported.

Gold had a weekly gain of 3.3%. The year-on-year gain was a very healthy 32%. Gold´s gain was the largest annual gain since 1979 (when its price doubled) and its seventh straight year of positive returns. Gold thus outperformed the majority of the world´s major stock markets once again.

Read Article

7. United States Transfer of Sovereignty to Sovereign Wealth Funds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Mega Picture - Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF's) are being hailed as the saviors of the financial world, but in reality are more akin to harbingers of the economic apocalypse for countries such as the United States and United Kingdom.

The SWF's have been stepping in of late with tens of billions in financing and investments into the cash starved US banking and finance sector with financial institutions such as Citicorp selling off large chunks every other week to funds such as that to the Abu Dhabi SWF at 4.9% of the company for $7.5bn on a fixed yield of 11%, the terms are far more favourable than offered to domestic investors. Most recent speculation is that Rio Tinto maybe inline for a chinese SWF bid of as much as $150 billion.

Read Article

8. Stock Market Trends for 2008

By: Clif_Droke

The year 2007 was marked by pessimism, doom and gloom, and a never-ending fusillade of fear. The mainstream press never tired of hypnotizing into believing the stock market would collapse, a downfall which never materialized.

With all the talk of the weak dollar and the predictions of a worsening liquidity crisis, prognosticators have all but written off the prospects for a bullish 2008. Calls for a recession in the year ahead are also on the rise. What these analysts have failed to grasp is that there never was a liquidity crisis to begin with. By definition, tight money is reflected by rising interest rates and falling money supply indicators. Just the opposite is the case today.

Read Article

9. 2008 Epic Battle Between Credit Crunch and Central banks Liquidity Flood

By: Money_and_Markets

Martin Weiss writes: The year 2007 is closing — and 2008 is about to open — with an epic battle between two of the most powerful economic crosscurrents we've seen in a lifetime:

An unprecedented credit crunch threatening to strangle the debt-addicted U.S. economy, and ... Equally unprecedented money pumping by a Federal Reserve determined to flood the economy with all the cash it needs to overcome the crunch.

Read Article

10. Commodity Bull Market Super Cycle - Ready to Rumble on in 2008

By: Gary_Dorsch

“A trend in motion, will stay in motion, until some major outside force, knocks it off its course.” After gyrating within a sideways trading range over the past 18-months, the “Commodity Super Cycle,” measured by the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index, (DJCI), resumed its upward course in the second half or 2007. Led by the agricultural, energy, and precious metal sectors, the DJCI closed at an all-time high.

According to famed hedge-fund trader Jimmy Rogers, the 20th century has seen three secular bull-markets in commodities from 1906-1923, and from 1933-1955, and 1968-1982, spanning an average of 15-years. The current bull market for the DJCI is now six-years old, and Mr Rodgers thinks the “Commodity Super Cycle” has many more years to run, albeit with some nasty corrections along the way.

Read Article

 

For more indepth analysis on the financial markets make sure to visit the Market Oracle on a regular basis.

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The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Newsletter and online publication.
(c) 2005-2008 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - The Market Oracle asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team. Any and all information provided within this newsletter is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided in this newsletter. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. (
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Comments

Michael L.
07 Jan 08, 05:23
Agricultural newsletter

Thanks for the agricultural newsletter, thats just what i was looking for so as I can make some investments in the soft commodities.

Cheers !


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