Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Five Charts That Show We Are on the Brink of an Unthinkable Financial Crisis- John_Mauldin
2.Bitcoin Parabolic Mania - Zeal_LLC
3.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – 2 - Raul_I_Meijer
4.Best Time / Month of Year to BUY a USED Car is DECEMBER, UK Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Labour Sheffield City Council Election Panic Could Prompt Suspension of Tree Felling's Private Security - N_Walayat
6.War on Gold Intensifies: It Betrays the Elitists’ Panic and Augurs Their Coming Defeat Part2 - Stewart_Dougherty
7.How High Will Gold Go? - Harry_Dent
8.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – Forks and Mad Max - Raul_I_Meijer
9.UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall - GoldCore
10.New EU Rules For Cross-Border Cash, Gold Bullion Movements - GoldCore
Last 7 days
Bond Market Bear Creating Gold Bull Market - 19th Jan 18
Gold Stocks GDX $25 Breakout on Earnings - 19th Jan 18
SPX is Higher But No Breakout - 19th Jan 18
Game Changer for Bitcoin - 19th Jan 18
Upside Risk for Gold in 2018 - 19th Jan 18
Money Minute - A 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy - 19th Jan 18
Discovery Sport Real MPG Fuel Economy Vs Land Rover 53.3 MPG Sales Pitch - 19th Jan 18
For Americans Buying Gold and Silver: Still a Big U.S. Pricing Advantage - 19th Jan 18
5 Maps And Charts That Predict Geopolitical Trends In 2018 - 19th Jan 18
North Korean Quagmire: Part 2. Bombing, Nuclear Threats, and Resolution - 19th Jan 18
Complete Guide On Forex Trading Market - 19th Jan 18
Bitcoin Crash Sees Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars - 18th Jan 18
The Interest Rates Are What Matter In This Market - 18th Jan 18
Crude Oil Sweat, Blood and Tears - 18th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport - Week 3 HSE Black Test Review - 18th Jan 18
The North Korea Quagmire: Part 1, A Contest of Colonialism and Communism - 18th Jan 18
Understand Currency Trade and Make Plenty of Money - 18th Jan 18
Bitcoin Price Crash Below $10,000. What's Next? We have answers… - 18th Jan 18
How to Trade Gold During Second Half of January, Daily Cycle Prediction - 18th Jan 18
More U.S. States Are Knocking Down Gold & Silver Barriers - 18th Jan 18
5 Economic Predictions for 2018 - 18th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport - What You Need to Know Before Buying - Owning Week 2 - 17th Jan 18
Bitcoin and Stock Prices, Both Symptoms of Speculative Extremes! - 17th Jan 18
So That’s What Stock Market Volatility Looks Like - 17th Jan 18
Tips On Choosing the Right Forex Dealer - 17th Jan 18
Crude Oil is Starting 2018 Strong but there's Undeniable Risk to the Downside - 16th Jan 18
SPX, NDX, INDU and RUT Stock Indices all at Resistance Levels - 16th Jan 18
Silver Prices To Surge – JP Morgan Has Acquired A “Massive Quantity of Physical Silver” - 16th Jan 18
Carillion Bankruptcy and the PFI Sector Spiraling Costs Crisis, Amey, G4S, Balfour Beatty, Serco.... - 16th Jan 18
Artificial Intelligence - Extermination of Humanity - 16th Jan 18
Carillion Goes Bust, as Government Refuses to Bailout PFI Contractors Debt and Pensions Liabilities - 15th Jan 18
What Really Happens in Iran?  - 15th Jan 18
Stock Market Near an Intermediate Top? - 15th Jan 18
The Key Economic Indicator You Should Watch in 2018 - 15th Jan 18
London Property Market Crash Looms As Prices Drop To 2 1/2 Year Low - 15th Jan 18
Some Fascinating Stock Market Fibonacci Relationships... - 15th Jan 18
How to Know If This Stock Market Rally Will Continue for Two More Months? - 14th Jan 18
Everything SMIGGLE from Pencil Cases to Water Bottles, Pens and Springs! - 14th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Very Bad MPG Fuel Economy! Real Owner's Review - 14th Jan 18
Gold Miners’ Status Updated - 13th Jan 18
Gold And Silver – Review of Annual, Qrtly, Monthly, Weekly Charts. Reality v Sentiment - 13th Jan 18
Gold GLD ETF Update.. Bear Market Reversal Watch - 13th Jan 18
Stock Market Leadership In 2018 To Come From Oil & Gas - 13th Jan 18
Stock Market Primed for a Reversal - 13th Jan 18
Live Trading Webinar: Discover 3 High-Confidence Trade Set-Ups - 13th Jan 18
Optimum Entry Point for Gold and Silver Stocks - 12th Jan 18
Stock Selloffs Great for Gold - 12th Jan 18
These 3 Facts Show Gold Is Set to Surge in 2018 - 12th Jan 18
How China is Locking Up Critical Resources in the US’s Own Backyard - 12th Jan 18
Stock futures are struggling. May reverse Today - 12th Jan 18
Three Surprising Places You See Cryptocurrency - 12th Jan 18
Semi Seconductor Stocks Canary Still Chirping, But He’s Gonna Croak in 2018 - 12th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Panoramic Sunroof Questions Answered - 12th Jan 18
Information About Trading With Alpari And Its Advantages - 12th Jan 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

6 Critical Money Making Rules

Post Greek PSI Deal, We Are Not BULLish or BEARish, We Are GORILLAish

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012 Mar 11, 2012 - 10:59 AM GMT

By: readtheticker

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Greek PSI deal is done, deadline passed, the ISDA has called a credit event on bonds that did not voluntary sign up for a 70% plus haircut. However what all the folks in Wall street are doing this weekend are trying to work out how long the queue is outside the door of the ISDA (the folks who trigger CDS deals) Monday morning coming, to see what debts will be forced to be reported on profit and loss statements.UPDATED2


After the forced accounting standards change back in 2009,a loan need not be written down to its true value until it has been proven [via default] to be worthless. This means bailouts of banks and countries allowed loans to maintain full value on banks balance sheets. The Greek default and soon to follow cascade of loan defaults and more ISDA meetings triggering CDS means that more losses will be printed on Profit and loss statements in the near future. How large this is, will determine what happens to the market starting Monday.

Mark J Grant makes this point in The Eight Hundred Pound Greek Gorilla Enters The Room

Extract...

I expect the ratings agencies to place Greece in "Default" and with their banks following. The markets are "Ho-Humming" and the conversations revolves around "Net" CDS exposure and the write-downs that have already taken place at the European banks. Please recall AIG and what happened with Lehman and what do we find this morning; KA Finanz, the Austrian bad bank, faces $1.32 billion in losses due to their exposure to the Greek CDS contracts according to a Bloomberg article. So now we will wait and see who else is on the hook, who may be seriously impaired, because the Gross number of about $79 billion for Greek CDS is about to enter center stage.

I hold up my hand, "One moment please" as I introduce you to the 800 pound Greek Gorilla that is about to enter the room. Allow me to now present to you the "OTHER" Greek debt that is outstanding and will have to be accounted for as the country defaults. Detailed below are some of the "OTHER" sovereign obligations of the Greek government which have now been submitted to the ISDA and I list some of them below. You will note that there are bank bonds, Hellenic Railway bonds, Urban Transportation bonds et al that are guaranteed by Greece. (RTT Etc etc the list grows)

COMMENTS: You can bet that the long list of loans soon to be classified as in default has not been priced into the market. Remember these loans can not be swapped with free cash from the ECB LTRO, so they are not going away. The Gorilla is in the room, and he is waking up. Gorilla is a term to use when you are bearish and the markets become violent to the downside, after all Gorilla can cause considerable damage is a small room.

UPDATE1: More from Mark Grant The Greek €107 Billion Contingent Liability Gorilla Exposed

Extract ...

Here is $107 billion of OTHER debt; guaranteed debt that does not appear to be included anywhere in the official Greek sovereign debt figures. Contingent liabilities that are not counted any longer perhaps as the accepted manner of doing business now in Europe. Most of these issuances are governed under British law with "Default" clauses and "Negative Covenant" clauses. Greece defaults on €105 billion Euros and adds new debt, the IMF/EU loans, of 130 billion Euros and we are told that Greece is better off today than yesterday. What drivel! With the addition of the new IMF/EU loans of $172 billion and the revelation of the guaranteed debt at $107 billion Greece now has $279 billion of new and hidden debts.

All of the meandering, all of the charades, all of the red nail polish applied will, in the end I forecast, not be able to hide the reality that the barking dog is a greasy Pig.

COMMENTS: Prior to the Greek PSI deal Greece had a $265 bn in GDP and $1.2 trillion of debt. After the PSI deal they have $265 bn in GDP (and falling fast) and $1.3 trillon of debt (and counting). This is three card monty, and the punters that are losing are : Greek taxpayers, world middle class. The winners are French and German banks who have been released from such horrible paper. The great while colar fraud continues against the world middle class [ak the worlds taxpayers who a loaded with house hold debt].

Comments from Peter Pan (under the above link) sums it all up ..."The whole purpose of bailing out Greece was to convert the unsecured debt of banks into secured debt which has now been done. Greece will now either lose her assets by being forced to sell them or will be required to constantly put money in her loan account from other sources in order that the bankers bonuses will continue to flow under the guise of loan servicing\repayments. Once the ugliness of the arrangement is fully revealed does anyone think that Portugal and Spain will allow themselves to follow the same path? Then it will be game, set, match point for the theft and lies foisted on the people and death to the politicians that dared to enslave their people."...

Folks when SPAIN work the above out they will force untold fear upon the world markets.

The fellow on this video says "this is how you can milk your friends and family out of hard earned cash". Isnt that the truth.

Three card monty...

The Gorilla is warming up and he is going to paaaarrrty...

and the version they didnt want you to see

We are in a volatility lull, and the cycle is strong within the VIX/VOX and until proven otherwise we can expect more rock and roll into the US summer months.

CBOE Implied Volatility (VOX) Chart with a powerful cycle that still working..

VXO

You know when the White Knight (anti fraud, money printing) is winning when the US Dollar is bullish, and this is so.

UUP

UPDATE2: The gold bugs will not believe the US Dollar bullish story. Being bullish on US dollar is bearish on the Euro. However the arguement for US Dollar bears is that the US Fed will print billions by stealth currency swaps to bailout foreign banks who have suffered under the european debt default. This bearish story may be true, after the Euro has gone to par with the US Dollar. Sequence of events is important, Euro down first, then the Fed will fight US Dollar strength, that is our preferred sequence of events.

This is as crazy as this poem...

One fine day in the middle of the night Two dead men got up to fight, Back to back they faced each other, Drew their swords and shot each other

Conclusion: Best way to profit is long volatility.

Readtheticker

My website: www.readtheticker.com My blog: http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx

We are financial market enthusiast using methods expressed by the Gann, Hurst and Wyckoff with a few of our own proprietary tools. Readtheticker.com provides online stock and index charts with commentary. We are not brokers, bankers, financial planners, hedge fund traders or investment advisors, we are private investors

© 2012 Copyright readtheticker - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The material is presented for educational purposes only and may contain errors or omissions and are subject to change without notice. Readtheticker.com (or 'RTT') members and or associates are NOT responsible for any actions you may take on any comments, advice,annotations or advertisement presented in this content. This material is not presented to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument (including but not limited to stocks, forex, options, bonds or futures, on any exchange in the world) or as 'investment advice'. Readtheticker.com members may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Matt
13 Mar 12, 10:00
Technical Analysis

Greece is just putting off the inevitable.... "Default" Nice article!


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules