Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Covid, Debt and Precious Metals - 3rd Jun 20
Gold-Silver Ratio And Correlation - 3rd Jun 20
The Corona Riots Begin, US Covid-19 Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 3rd Jun 20 -
Stock Market Short-term Top? - 3rd Jun 20
Deflation: Why the "Japanification" of the U.S. Looms Large - 3rd Jun 20
US Stock Market Sets Up Technical Patterns – Pay Attention - 3rd Jun 20
UK Corona Catastrophe Trend Analysis - 2nd Jun 20
US Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming - 2nd Jun 20
Let’s Make Sure This Crisis Doesn’t Go to Waste - 2nd Jun 20
Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse - 2nd Jun 20
The importance of effective website design in a business marketing strategy - 2nd Jun 20
AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Buying Levels Q2 2020 - 1st Jun 20
M2 Velocity Collapses – Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up? - 1st Jun 20
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum - 1st Jun 20
AMD 3900XT, 3800XT, 3600XT Refresh Means Zen 3 4000 AMD CPU's Delayed for 5nm Until 2021? - 1st Jun 20
Why Multi-Asset Brokers Like TRADE.com are the Future of Trading - 1st Jun 20
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

What's Driving the Gold, Silver Prices?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Mar 14, 2012 - 08:09 AM GMT

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold rose to $1,700 last week and is holding that level in a very tight trading range.

The last few weeks have seen a larger consolidation pattern forming, pointing to a much bigger consolidating pattern that implies far more than just a short-term trading move just ahead of us. The forces that drive both supply and demand in the very short-term are just about in balance, so it is appropriate that we look at these forces to see how they influence gold prices in the short, medium, and long term.


The forces that influence the gold and silver markets are very different from those that affect industrial and base metals. They go far beyond simple prices and the technical picture of demand and supply. They encompass trust, confidence, dependability, and protection that have little or nothing to do with gold's uses. Warren Buffett is quite right about the "uselessness" of gold. But he has missed the point as to its value. Such a master of management and investment must find such an unmanageable metal virtually useless to him. But therein lays its value as an investment.

Over the long term gold cannot be managed or controlled. It's the last investment standing when push comes to shove and silver is its lesser sidekick. We mentioned the saying in an earlier article that people don't buy gold to make money but because they have money. That's why central banks hold gold. They wish they didn't have to but they know that their currencies are vulnerable to mismanagement and that over time are almost inevitably mismanaged. Gold is bought to get away from people and their games in the knowledge that when those games are played gold stands at much higher levels than before the games started. During the time that these events are played out, the gold and silver prices reflect each step made.

At Gold Forecaster and Silver Forecaster, we track these influences as much as we track the fundamental and technical pictures. Failure to do this would make our work directionless as well as inadequate. After all, one cannot exclude any facet of the influences on gold or silver if you want a professional understanding of these markets.

Gold Supply

The supply of both gold and silver is rising but not in nearly sufficient amounts to satisfy the growing demand coming from all sides of the world. The production of gold is more difficult than that of gold because miners have to go to more and more different countries to extract gold. The governments of those areas may be friendly at the start of the operations, but if they feel that profits being made by miners are too large, then they move in with higher taxes and in some cases, nationalize the mines. With all the easily reached and exploited gold deposits having been mined out in the last century, miners are seeing costs jump inordinately; however, with the prospect of higher gold prices, even the far flung deposits are becoming profitable.

Bear in mind that miners first have to replace the deposits that they've mined out. After that their reserves can grow, but most miners are pleased simply to be able to replace mined-out ounces.

What is clear is that newly-mined ounces will prove insufficient to supply demand in the future. The only other source of supply has to come from what is badly termed, "scrap" gold. When this term is used it does not always mean gold that has to be re-refined like steel from a scrap car. It usually means that this is gold sold by current owners, who for some reason feel it necessary to sell it. This can be for reasons as simple as they need the cash with which to buy something else, pay something off, or because the owners feels the price is too high, wants to profit and buy it back after the price has fallen back to a level where it forms a base from which to rise again. Such sellers are confined to the retail side of gold and not to central bankers any more. That makes gold very different from silver.

This leaves the supply of gold relatively inelastic.

Only when prices 'spike' do we see dishoarding or scrap sales in volume. Such a 'spike' has to be significant because gold now has a habit of falling less than expected before consolidating ahead of the next rise. Many times traders are caught wrong-footed and pay a similar price to the one they exited at.

Gold Demand

The emerging world investors in a debt-distressed Eurozone and central bankers comprise the backbone of the demand for gold and will do so for many years to come. All three of these types of investors are driven by factors pertaining to the retention of value. Their buying reflects a need to counter the falling values of paper money not because they use gold or consume gold. This makes gold an entirely different metal from all others.

For gold to keep this quality it must not be consumed in significant quantities; it must persuade its owners to keep it out of reach of others in vaults or personal safes and the like. It is money when all else fails.

It is this facet that keeps its price rising and always will so long as paper money, over time, continues to cheapen.

Silver Supply

The supply of silver is mainly confined to the Americas, particularly Central and South America and Mexico. Apart from pure silver mines, silver is mined as a by-product of other metals. Where it is a by-product, its supply is reliant on the demand for the metal of the mine that the owners are targeting (i.e. nickel etc.). But there is a rapidly rising group of mines that are targeting silver alone. The supply from these mines again is insufficient to supply the rising demand from investment demand. It is growing and will continue to do so, but so is the demand, not just from the investment side of the market, but from industrial demand.

Silver Demand

From supplying photography and jewelry demand for decades, the changing face of silver demand is remarkable. Today, its qualities in the electronic and medical field have burgeoned. Solar Panels, price tags, silver in clothes, in medicine, in computers and similar uses have moved silver from a metal related to discretionary wants to important needs. The demand for silver has moved to a much less price and economic conditions, sensitive metal, to one where demand remains strong when economic conditions weaken.

In these uses, unlike photography and jewelry, silver is consumed once and for all and does not come back to the market re-cycled nearly so much as it used to. This is ensuring that industrial demand is now rising, taking from the market significant amounts of newly-mined silver, which never returns.

Silver has set a pattern of moving alongside gold as monetary metal too. Do not expect silver to be accepted as a monetary metal by monetary authorities for the foreseeable future, but this has not stopped retail demand from treating it as such. As the price of gold has moved up and away from the poorer investor, so they turned to silver to fulfill the same requirements of retaining value. Silver's track record is as remarkable as that of gold having moved up from $6 to the current level of $33. This has assured the place it found in the past, in the future. Silver too, is money in the hands of poorer investors. You will not see a central banker anywhere near silver, but you will see huge numbers of emerging world investors newly rescued from poverty. With the emerging world numbering above 4 billion people, this demand has not even been dented, let alone satisfied.

Relationship between Gold, Silver

The relationship we are talking about here is not the gold silver ratio; it is simpler than that. The price performance of the two metals since 2005, in particular, is roughly the same as 'both have risen over five fold since then'. The question that investors should ask is, "Will this change?" We believe not! There is a likelihood that silver will outperform gold in the future, but remember why the two are rising in the first place.

Gold Forecaster regularly covers all fundamental and Technical aspects of the gold price in the weekly newsletter. To subscribe, please visit www.GoldForecaster.com

By Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money

Copyright 2012 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved.
Julian Phillips - was receiving his qualifications to join the London Stock Exchange. He was already deeply immersed in the currency turmoil engulfing world in 1970 and the Institutional Gold Markets, and writing for magazines such as "Accountancy" and the "International Currency Review" He still writes for the ICR.

What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market.

Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.

Julian DW Phillips Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules