Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20
The Growing Weaponization of Space - 14th Feb 20
Will the 2020s Be Good or Bad for the Gold Market? - 14th Feb 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Price Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days - 14th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Trend Forecast 2020 - 14th Feb 20
Coronavirus, Powell and Gold - 14th Feb 20
How the Corona Virus is Affecting Global Stock Markets - 14th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - 13th Feb 20
Owning and Driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 2 YEAR Review - 13th Feb 20
Shipping Rates Plunge, Commodities and Stocks May Follow - 13th Feb 20
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession - 13th Feb 20
PALLADIUM - THIS Is What a Run on the Bank for Precious Metals Looks Like… - 13th Feb 20
Bitcoin: "Is it too late to get in?" Get Answers Now - 13th Feb 20
China Coronavirus Infections Soar by 1/3rd to 60,000, Deaths Jump to 1,367 - 13th Feb 20
Crude Oil Price Action – Like a Coiled Spring Already? - 13th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections, Africa and South America Hidden Outbreaks - 12th Feb 20
Will USD X Decline About to Trigger Precious Metals Rally - 12th Feb 20
Copper Market is a Coiled Spring - 12th Feb 20
Dow Theory Stock Market Warning from the Utilities Index - 12th Feb 20
How to Get Virgin Media Engineers to FIX Hub 3.0 Problems and NOT BS Customers - 12th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections by 66% Due to Capacity Constraints - 12th Feb 20
Is Coronavirus the Black Swan That Takes Gold To-Da-Moon? - 12th Feb 20
Stock Market 2020 – A Close Look At What To Expect - 12th Feb 20
IBM AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 11th Feb 20
The US Dollar’s Subtle Message for Gold - 11th Feb 20
What All To Do Before Opening A Bank Account For Your Business - 11th Feb 20
How and When to Enter Day Trades & Swing Trade For Maximum Gains - 11th Feb 20
The Great Stock Market Dichotomy - 11th Feb 20
Stock Market Sector Rotation Should Peak Within 60+ Days – Part II - 11th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Stocks Bear Market Risk 2020? - Video - 11th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

What Can We Infer From the Gold Dow Ratio?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 May 25, 2012 - 10:19 AM GMT

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is all the talk of Greece leaving the eurozone and we are already seeing a slow-motion runs on Greek banks. The Financial Times reports that €5 billion has left Greek banks in just the last two weeks and the more that Greek citizens feel it is possible that their country will leave the euro, the more incentive they have for pulling their money out  and sending it abroad.

There are no rules in place for a country to leave the eurozone and it is anybody’s guess as to how severe the impact of such a move will be. These are uncharted waters and the sailing could get very rough. If Greece were to leave the eurozone, gold could initially fall on euro weakness and a flight to cash but the precious metal might then bounce due to a policy response of quantitative easing from central banks.

No one can predict how big the systemic contagion will be for Spain, Italy and their banks. In Spain, 16 banks and four regions have just been downgraded by Moody’s Investor Service. The point of no return may be approaching faster than anyone anticipated. Spain and Italy are too big to bail out if panic ensues after a “Greexit,” which is why European leaders would prefer that Greece, with all its problems, remain. A Greek departure is likely to be seen as the beginning of the end for the whole euro zone project. Greek voters still need to produce a functioning government in new elections on June 17.

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman compared the choice of Greece staying in Eurozone to the situation of Italy, where the north has had to subsidize the poorer south for many decades. He writes:

Italy’s currency union held together because the north made, and continues to make, large fiscal transfers to the south. Economists reckon these transfers to be around 4-5 per cent of Italian GDP. A flow of subsidies towards the south has had evil consequences: incomes have been maintained at uneconomically high levels, fostering unemployment. Large infrastructure and development projects have fuelled corruption, sustaining southern Italy’s criminal societies. Fiscal transfers helped Italy maintain its political unity but the cost has been enormous. From an economic perspective, the Mezzogiorno (Italy’s south) would probably have done better if it had stayed out of Italy’s monetary union.

Today, Greece stands on the brink of an exit from the euro. To avoid further sovereign contagion, the remaining eurozone members may find themselves pushed rapidly into a more complete fiscal and political union. The markets would doubtless applaud such an outcome. But if Italy’s example is relevant, the northern eurozone members could find themselves paying indefinitely a large tribute to the south. Economic divergences within the single currency area could become entrenched. Viewed from this perspective, a clean-break divorce might bring more immediate pain but in the end prove less costly than an unhappy marriage Italian style.

Meanwhile, central banks continued to buy bullion in April as Turkey raised its reserves by 29.7 metric tons and Ukraine, Mexico and Kazakhstan also increased their holdings, according to International Monetary Fund data.

Before addressing the title question, let's begin this week's technical part with the analysis of the S&P 500’s long-term chart (charts courtesy by

In the long-term S&P 500 Index chart (if you are reading this essay on, you may click the above chart to enlarge), stocks are at some important support levels now. Last week, stocks moved below the long-term support line and today are trying to move back above it. We have seen some sideways trading around it and stocks are slightly above the support line based on intra-day highs. It’s important to see where they close this week, as this chart alone does not give decisive information.

Let us now move on to Dow Jones Transportation Average chart.

In the chart, we see a significant breakdown last week, which was is currently being verified by a move back to the resistance line. If the index closes the week below this level, the breakdown will be verified.

Now, let’s see how the financials did this week.

In the Broker Dealer Index chart (a proxy for the financial sector), we saw a move below the final Fibonacci retracement level last week. Attempts to move back above this line have been unsuccessful and the index is still visibly below this resistance line. This can be viewed as a verification of the breakdown, which is bearish not only for financials, but also for other stocks (more on this subject can be found in last week’s essay).

Finally, let’s take a look at the Dow:Gold ratio.

In the chart, we see that the ratio moved lower for a ten year period as gold prices rose. The ratio tried to move below the lows of 2009 in 2011 but the breakdown has been invalidated and a rally followed. In fact, this rally took the ratio above the medium-term declining resistance line (the declining red line on the above chart) and this breakout is now being verified.

There are some bearish implications for gold here but these are limited since the breakout in the ratio has not yet been verified.

Summing up, the situation in stocks is a bit indecisive for the S&P 500 but other indices show signs that lower stock prices are to come. In addition to these charts, a note about fundamentals seems valid here. Companies which are strong generally act weak before periods of market decline, whereas those which are weak fundamentally can be seen to thrive during the final part of a rally. Apple, seen as a strong company moved lower on Thursday, whereas Facebook (seen as weak from the valuation approach) has moved higher in each of the past two days. If the “strong-weak” theory holds, lower stock prices would be in the cards. As has already been mentioned, there are some bearish implications for gold in the dow:gold ratio chart, but we need to wait until the breakout in the ratio is verified to consider them reliable.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Sunshine Profits

    Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio?

    Sunshine Profits provides professional support for precious metals Investors and Traders.

    Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits’ Premium Service gain access to Charts, Tools and Key Principles sections. Click the following link to find out how many benefits this means to you. Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sing-up for a free trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations.

    All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

    By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules