Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

What Can We Infer From the Gold Dow Ratio?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 May 25, 2012 - 10:19 AM GMT

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is all the talk of Greece leaving the eurozone and we are already seeing a slow-motion runs on Greek banks. The Financial Times reports that €5 billion has left Greek banks in just the last two weeks and the more that Greek citizens feel it is possible that their country will leave the euro, the more incentive they have for pulling their money out  and sending it abroad.


There are no rules in place for a country to leave the eurozone and it is anybody’s guess as to how severe the impact of such a move will be. These are uncharted waters and the sailing could get very rough. If Greece were to leave the eurozone, gold could initially fall on euro weakness and a flight to cash but the precious metal might then bounce due to a policy response of quantitative easing from central banks.

No one can predict how big the systemic contagion will be for Spain, Italy and their banks. In Spain, 16 banks and four regions have just been downgraded by Moody’s Investor Service. The point of no return may be approaching faster than anyone anticipated. Spain and Italy are too big to bail out if panic ensues after a “Greexit,” which is why European leaders would prefer that Greece, with all its problems, remain. A Greek departure is likely to be seen as the beginning of the end for the whole euro zone project. Greek voters still need to produce a functioning government in new elections on June 17.

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman compared the choice of Greece staying in Eurozone to the situation of Italy, where the north has had to subsidize the poorer south for many decades. He writes:

Italy’s currency union held together because the north made, and continues to make, large fiscal transfers to the south. Economists reckon these transfers to be around 4-5 per cent of Italian GDP. A flow of subsidies towards the south has had evil consequences: incomes have been maintained at uneconomically high levels, fostering unemployment. Large infrastructure and development projects have fuelled corruption, sustaining southern Italy’s criminal societies. Fiscal transfers helped Italy maintain its political unity but the cost has been enormous. From an economic perspective, the Mezzogiorno (Italy’s south) would probably have done better if it had stayed out of Italy’s monetary union.

Today, Greece stands on the brink of an exit from the euro. To avoid further sovereign contagion, the remaining eurozone members may find themselves pushed rapidly into a more complete fiscal and political union. The markets would doubtless applaud such an outcome. But if Italy’s example is relevant, the northern eurozone members could find themselves paying indefinitely a large tribute to the south. Economic divergences within the single currency area could become entrenched. Viewed from this perspective, a clean-break divorce might bring more immediate pain but in the end prove less costly than an unhappy marriage Italian style.

Meanwhile, central banks continued to buy bullion in April as Turkey raised its reserves by 29.7 metric tons and Ukraine, Mexico and Kazakhstan also increased their holdings, according to International Monetary Fund data.

Before addressing the title question, let's begin this week's technical part with the analysis of the S&P 500’s long-term chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)

In the long-term S&P 500 Index chart (if you are reading this essay on sunshineprofits.com, you may click the above chart to enlarge), stocks are at some important support levels now. Last week, stocks moved below the long-term support line and today are trying to move back above it. We have seen some sideways trading around it and stocks are slightly above the support line based on intra-day highs. It’s important to see where they close this week, as this chart alone does not give decisive information.

Let us now move on to Dow Jones Transportation Average chart.

In the chart, we see a significant breakdown last week, which was is currently being verified by a move back to the resistance line. If the index closes the week below this level, the breakdown will be verified.

Now, let’s see how the financials did this week.

In the Broker Dealer Index chart (a proxy for the financial sector), we saw a move below the final Fibonacci retracement level last week. Attempts to move back above this line have been unsuccessful and the index is still visibly below this resistance line. This can be viewed as a verification of the breakdown, which is bearish not only for financials, but also for other stocks (more on this subject can be found in last week’s essay).

Finally, let’s take a look at the Dow:Gold ratio.

In the chart, we see that the ratio moved lower for a ten year period as gold prices rose. The ratio tried to move below the lows of 2009 in 2011 but the breakdown has been invalidated and a rally followed. In fact, this rally took the ratio above the medium-term declining resistance line (the declining red line on the above chart) and this breakout is now being verified.

There are some bearish implications for gold here but these are limited since the breakout in the ratio has not yet been verified.

Summing up, the situation in stocks is a bit indecisive for the S&P 500 but other indices show signs that lower stock prices are to come. In addition to these charts, a note about fundamentals seems valid here. Companies which are strong generally act weak before periods of market decline, whereas those which are weak fundamentally can be seen to thrive during the final part of a rally. Apple, seen as a strong company moved lower on Thursday, whereas Facebook (seen as weak from the valuation approach) has moved higher in each of the past two days. If the “strong-weak” theory holds, lower stock prices would be in the cards. As has already been mentioned, there are some bearish implications for gold in the dow:gold ratio chart, but we need to wait until the breakout in the ratio is verified to consider them reliable.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Editor
Sunshine Profits

    Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio?

    Sunshine Profits provides professional support for precious metals Investors and Traders.

    Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits’ Premium Service gain access to Charts, Tools and Key Principles sections. Click the following link to find out how many benefits this means to you. Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sing-up for a free trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations.

    All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

    By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in