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Gold Still At Risk of a Large Down Move Before Rallying

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Jun 21, 2012 - 09:13 AM GMT

By: David_Banister

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold has been busy consolidating in what I believe will be a 13 Fibonacci month Primary wave 4 correction.  The Gold bull market I’ve been following since 2001 is a likely 13 year bull cycle that will end in 2013 or 2014 depending on how you count.  This current correction pattern is working off a 34 Fibonacci month rally that took Gold from 681 to 1923 at its ultimate highs.  Last fall I warned about the parabolic run likely ending in the 1908 ranges and for investors to position themselves accordingly.


Today we have Gold trading around 1600 and our recent forecast in May was for a rally into Mid June topping around 1620-1650 ranges in US Dollars.  The intermediate forecast still calls for a possible drop to 1445-1455 ranges this summer, the same figures I gave out on TheStreet.Com interview last September for a Primary wave 4 low.

Only a close and a strong move over 1650 will eliminate the downside risk in my opinion.  Below we can see a weekly chart showing the 34 week moving average line as well as the obvious downtrend line. The 34 week moving average line acted as support during the Primary wave 3 rally from 681-1923.  It now is acting as a resistance ceiling to break through, and I don’t think we will until this fall.  The likely cyclical lows for this Gold correction will be in the October window and investors should make sure they are positioned long by that time.

Subscribe to our regular updates to stay informed on a dialy basis on the SP 500 and GOLD in the meantime with a discount offer.  Go to www.markettrendforecast.com to sign up or to ask for our free weekly reports.

Dave Banister

CIO-Founder
Active Trading Partners, LLC
www.ActiveTradingPartners.com
TheMarketTrendForecast.com

Dave Banister is the Chief Investment Strategist and commentator for ActiveTradingPartners.com.  David has written numerous market forecast articles on various sites (MarketOracle.co.uk, 321Gold.com, Gold-Eagle.com, TheStreet.Com etc. ) that have proven to be extremely accurate at major junctures.

© 2012 Copyright Dave Banister- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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