Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
S&P Stock Market Detailed Trend Forecast Into End 2024 - 25th Apr 24
US Presidential Election Year Equity Performance in the Presence of an Inverted Yield Curve- 25th Apr 24
Stock Market "Bullish Buzz" Reaches Highest Level in 53 Years - 25th Apr 24
Managing Your Public Image When Accused Of Allegations - 25th Apr 24
Friday Stock Market CRASH Following Israel Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities - 19th Apr 24
All Measures to Combat Global Warming Are Smoke and Mirrors! - 18th Apr 24
Cisco Then vs. Nvidia Now - 18th Apr 24
Is the Biden Administration Trying To Destroy the Dollar? - 18th Apr 24
S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast to Dec 2024 - 16th Apr 24
No Deposit Bonuses: Boost Your Finances - 16th Apr 24
Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - 8th Apr 24
Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting - 8th Apr 24
Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans - 8th Apr 24
Profit from the Roaring AI 2020's Tech Stocks Economic Boom - 8th Apr 24
Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's - 7th Apr 24
It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- 7th Apr 24
AI Revolution and NVDA: Why Tough Going May Be Ahead - 7th Apr 24
Hidden cost of US homeownership just saw its biggest spike in 5 years - 7th Apr 24
What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? - 7th Apr 24
The Fed is becoming increasingly divided on interest rates - 7th Apr 24
The Evils of Paper Money Have no End - 7th Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - 3rd Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend - 2nd Apr 24
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 - 2nd Apr 24
Bitcoin S&P Pattern - 31st Mar 24
S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings - 31st Mar 24
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS - 31st Mar 24
Here's a Dirty Little Secret: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Is Still Loose - 31st Mar 24
Tandem Chairman Paul Pester on Fintech, AI, and the Future of Banking in the UK - 31st Mar 24
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Wild Stock Market Week, QE3 Is Here To Stay......

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Sep 15, 2012 - 12:42 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

A lot of anticipation is the way to explain the week that just passed. There were two major events to come as the week wore on. Apple Inc. (AAPL) was going to introduce the IPhone5 on Wednesday, while everyone, and I mean everyone, tuned into the words from Mr. Bernanke on Thursday about whether he was going to implement a QE3 program. I didn't think there was a chance he would do it, but more on that in a minute.



The Apple launch of the new IPhone was a huge success. The stock tested down a few times, threatening to lose key support at 657, but it refused to break, and very late in the day it surged higher. That's surely a win for the bulls! Goes to show you just how important Apple has become to the markets performance. I can't say it's healthy when one stock has so much power, but it is what it is.

The joy from Apple was gone over night as everyone focused on the Fed Bernanke on Thursday. To my surprise, but apparently not to the market, he did implement QE3, and in a very big way. A ridiculous stimulation that will continue monthly for as long as need be, or in other words, until unemployment meaningfully starts to improve. That will likely be quite a long time from now, so we are going to be flooded with cash for some time to come. The market liked it. It rallied as expected, and it continued to do so a bit more today, although extremely overbought conditions put a cap on today's move higher. It was a solid week for the bulls. Other than overbought there's nothing on the bearish side of the ledger.

So now we have all this cash sitting out there for the banks to use in order to help stimulate everything from small-to-big business ventures, not to mention the hope of stimulating new home buyers. Fed Bernanke, and his actions, have basically forced the market to move higher. All this cash has to go somewhere, and since interest rates are basically zero, and since they'll stay that way for at least another three years, it will be very tough to start a new, bear market for a while. The catch is this, however. What if the cash doesn't get used because getting loans is too tough for most and those who can get it, don't want to take the risk? What if those that do get the cash can't pay it back in time because the economy falls apart? They lose their jobs, etc.

Debt would rise further than it already is, and things would get very nasty for the economy. If the free cash made available does not stimulate employment, many who get the cash won't be able to do the right thing. Fed Bernanke knows of these risks, but is so desperate he is willing to take that risk. Things must be far worse than any of us truly understand to take these steps. You wonder what's really going on out there. We now have the cash. In the end, will it be the free money that finally hurts us all? Only time will tell. None of these programs have ever worked on the level intended. It has never stimulated employment, nor has it stimulated housing, the two keys to a healthier economy. Let's hope things find a way to work this time.

The market broke out this week above that horizontal headache of resistance at 1440. It is now decently above, but we're overbought. It would be bullish if we back tested while unwinding those overbought oscillators. If we held, and then shot back up, that's technically appropriate. We shall see, but thus far, things have gone the way the bulls had hoped. With some distance now away from 1440, we can pull back and unwind while still not losing key resistance now turned support. The trend is now clearly higher, and we may just stay overbought for some time to come, but there is some complacency out there.

Put call readings are getting more consistent at below .60. Bull-bear spread is moving higher as well towards that 30% level of more bulls. Some red flags are out there for the very short-term, but bigger picture, it's hard to argue with all the available cash being made available by the Fed.

Have a nice weekend!

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2012 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in