Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Time to take the RED Pill - 28th May 24
US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet - 28th May 24
Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal - 28th May 24
Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? - 28th May 24
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun - 25th May 24
Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes - 25th May 24
Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs - 25th May 24
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 24
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger - 24th May 24
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors - 24th May 24
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk - 24th May 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24
Micro Strategy Bubble Mania - 10th May 24
Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports - 10th May 24
Bitcoin Price Swings Analysis - 9th May 24
Could Chinese Gold Be the Straw That Breaks the Dollar's Back? - 9th May 24
The Federal Reserve Is Broke! - 9th May 24
The Elliott Wave Crash Course - 9th May 24
Psychologically Prepared for Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pull Corrections 2024 - 8th May 24
Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now - 8th May 24
Copper: The India Factor - 8th May 24
Gold 2008 and 2022 All Over Again? Stocks, USDX - 8th May 24
Holocaust Survivor States Israel is Like Nazi Germany, The Fourth Reich - 8th May 24
Fourth Reich Invades Rafah Concentration Camp To Kill Palestinian Children - 8th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stocks to Buy and Sell if Romney Wins U.S. Presodential Election 2012

Companies / US Presidential Election 2012 Oct 19, 2012 - 06:51 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Companies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDiane Alter writes: Over the past several weeks, GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney's momentum has spiked. Recent polls place him running neck-and-neck with or even edging ahead of President Barack Obama.

Besides strong debate performances, key factors have turned in Romney's favor.

Myriad surveys in a dozen crucial swing states show voter's concerns are increasing regarding the mushrooming fiscal deficit, debt issues and the depressed job market, issues that favor Romney.


Since the election won't be decided for another two weeks there is still time to act if you expect a Romney victory.

Here's what several top Wall Street analysts think a Romney win would mean for stocks.

Stocks to Buy if Romney Wins Election 2012
Bank Stocks

If Mitt Romney is elected 45th President of the United States, stocks in the financial and education sector stand to benefit, according to Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE ADR: CS).

A Romney win would be positive for banks, Credit Suisse analysts penned in a note to clients, because regulatory reforms and supervision would be more balanced. "While we do not expect a repeal of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a more "balanced' approach to bank supervision and future bank reforms are likely to be viewed favorably. We think a Republican administration would be a positive for bank stocks," a group of Credit Suisse analysts lead by Mark Flannery wrote.

Among the trio of banks the firm says are "well positioned" if Romney takes the helm in the White House are the giants currently under direct and constant scrutiny of the government. The three include: Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC); Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM).

Year-to-date, financial stocks have gained some 24%, leading the 10 main S&P industries and further gains would be expected with a Romney victory.

Education Stocks

With Romney sitting in the Oval Office, education equities could get a much needed boost.

Since the start of 2012, stocks in this sector have plummeted 45% following the Obama administration's overhaul in federal student aid. The group is poised to fall further if Obama serves a second term as his camp chases another round of initiatives that would widely weigh on earnings, Credit Suisse notes.

Underscoring the pain stocks in this industry have faced was Tuesday's fourth-quarter earnings report from Apollo Group Inc. (Nasdaq: APOL), whose earnings tumbled 60% from a year ago. The for-profit education company, best known for its Phoenix Universities, said it's cutting 800 jobs and will close 25 campuses. Shares have performed just as bad as earnings, down more than 60% for the year.

A Romney victory would help the ailing sector Credit Suisse says. In addition to Apollo, Bridgepoint Education Inc. (NYSE: BPI); DeVry Inc. (NYSE: DV); and Strayer Education Inc. (Nasdaq: STRA) stand to gain.

Managed Health Care Stocks

Although Romney has not detailed in full his health care plan, he has made it clear he will dismantle Obamacare on Day One if elected.

Managed health care stocks and medical device markers (subject to a 2.3% excise tax under Obamacare) are perched for a rally if the GOP candidate is elected.

Avik Roy, senior fellow at New York based think tank Manhattan Institute, and an outspoken critic of Obama's health care plan, shared with Barron's his health care picks if Romney wins.

They include: Abiomed Inc. (Nasdaq: ABMD); Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX); Integra Life Sciences Holding Corp. (Nasdaq: IART); Hill-Rom Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HRC); Stryker Corp. (NYSE: SYK); Zimmer Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ZMH); and WellPoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP).

Stocks to Sell if Romney Wins Election 2012
Alternative Energy

Romney is a prominent proponent of the Keystone Pipeline and staunch critic of Obama's financial support for renewable energy firms.

Two high profile names in the alternative energy sector that received generous grants from the Department of Energy (funded by the 2009 economic stimulus act) and have since filed bankruptcy are solar panel maker Solyndra LLC and electric battery maker A123 Systems, which declared Chapter 11 Tuesday.

A123's demise is a big blow to Obama's lofty goal of getting one million electric or plug-in vehicles on American roads by 2015. In the first nine months of the year, Nissan Motor Co. (PINK ADR: NSANY) sold just 9,674 of their hugely hyped Leaf electric cars, and General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) has sold just 7,671 rechargeable Volt compacts.

A few of the clean-technology companies that stand to suffer according to Credit Suisse are Codexis Inc. (Nasdaq: CDXS); Cree Inc. (Nasdaq: CREE) and First Solar Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR).

Treasuries and Bonds A Romney win would most likely mean an end to Ben Bernanke's run as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman and eventually lead to higher interest rates.

Dominic Konstam, Deutsche Bank's global head of interest rates research in New York, said investors should sell intermediate maturity treasuries and shorter-dated inflation debt to hedge against a Romney win.

He also warns a triumph for Romney could provoke a broad based sell-off in both bonds and stocks as bets are placed that current loose monetary programs may come to an end. That would hurt assets ranging from government debt to mortgages to precious metals, all of which have been goosed under such stimulation.

"The market has been lulled into a false sense of security that nothing is going to change with regards to monetary policy. If Romney wins, the market will assume the worst-that they are less supportive for accommodative polices-and that will take away some of the feel-good factor for stocks and bonds that Bernanke has engineered," Konstam told Bloomberg.

"The markets are hardwired to the ultra-accommodative stance. A Romney wins threatens the credibility of the extended-period language," Konstam added.

That appears to be a worst-case scenario.

In election years when a Republican wins, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a 16% gain while it rises an equal amount when the incumbent remains in office.

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2012/10/19/stocks-to-sell-if-romney-wins-election-2012/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2012 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in