Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Stock Market Continues Defying Gravity, Dow New All Time High - Nadeem_Walayat
2.America Superpower 2016 - Ian Bremmer
3.The US Dollar and the Precious Metals Complex - Rambus_Chartology
4.UK Immigration Crisis Could Prompt BREXIT, Propelling Britain Out of EU Despite German Factor - Nadeem_Walayat
5.The “Real Flash Crash” Will Scare You to Death - Shah Gilani
6.Gold Price Trend Forecast - Bob_Louka
7.UK Deflation Warning - Bank of England Economic Propaganda to Print and Inflate Debt - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Gold Lifeboat to Global Economies “Titanic Problem” Warn HSBC - GoldCore
9.Will Interest Rates Ever Rise? - BATR
10.Who’s Killing the Stock Market? - Shah Gilani
Last 5 days
This New Currency Could Wipe Out the Euro - 28th May 15
US Housing Market - Something Smells Fishy - 28th May 15
US Economy – Semi b2b Amps Up its Trend - 28th May 15
U.S. Fed Exported QE Travesty: Meet The BLICS Nations - 28th May 15
World War D—Deflation - Secular Bear Markets Analysis - 28th May 15
George Soros Warns of “Third World War” - 28th May 15
Why You Shouldn't Try to Invest Like Warren Buffett - 28th May 15
Stock Markets Buy and Hold is Back! - 28th May 15
We're Now Frighteningly Vulnerable to a Bond Market Crash - 28th May 15
Austerity, Economics and Religion - 28th May 15
National Holidays London and the Magic of Legoland UK Review - 27th May 15
Imminent Stocks Bear Market Signaled by Dow Theory ... - 27th May 15
Gold Price Has Bottomed – More Evidence - 27th May 15
Three Reasons You Shouldn’t Try to Invest Like Warren Buffett - 27th May 15
Gold Is “100% Guarantee from Legal and Political Risks” States Russian Central Bank - 27th May 15
Don't Drown in the Sea of Global Debt - 27th May 15
Three Reasons Why Carl Icahn Is Wrong About Apple Stock - 27th May 15
Crude Oil Price Stochastic Signals - 26th May 15
Why the Stock Market Will Crash - 26th May 15
GDP, Inflation, Employment Economic Statistics: It’s All a Lie - 26th May 15
Introduction to Peak Food - 26th May 15
Should We Dump the Euro? - 26th May 15
A Geopolitical Net Assessment of Europe - 26th May 15
Stock Market Top in Place? - 26th May 15
Best Cash ISA SBI 2.3% - 2.8 Year Fix, UK Interest Rates 2016 - 26th May 15
China Sets Up Gold Bullion Fund For Central Banks - 25th May 15
Is The Silver Trade Getting Crowded? - 25th May 15
Money Murder Mystery: Who Killed the Stock Market? - 25th May 15
Why Do We Celebrate Rising U.S. House Prices? - 24th May 15
Mario Draghi’s Slippery Downward Slope - 24th May 15
Gold : Truth is Stranger than Fiction - 24th May 15
Facebook Stock Price Forecast - 24th May 15
Make a Killing on the Coming Energy "Debt Bubble" - 24th May 15
Stock Market SPX Uptrend Inflection Point - 23rd May 15
What You Know for Certain - Huge Demand for Gold And Silver - 23rd May 15
Are We in Another Credit Bubble? And Is It Different than Before? - 23rd May 15
The “Real Flash Crash” Will Scare You to Death - 23rd May 15
Venezuela: No Rule of Law, Bad Money - 23rd May 15
Robots That Can Beat the Market by 100% - 23rd May 15
Why Shake Shack Stock Is a Bad Investment - 23rd May 15
Gold Price Primary Driver Bullish - 23rd May 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Biggest Debt Bomb in History

Is The US Bond Market Ponzi Scheme Coming To An End?

Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates Nov 25, 2012 - 10:08 AM GMT

By: WavePatternTraders

Interest-Rates

The US Bond market has been in a bull market since the 1980s and although I originally was looking for a potential high early this year, we have not really progressed much further, expect that real rates have come down even lower and tested the prior December 2008 lows at 2.5%, potentially creating a double bottom.


No one knows for sure how low yields can go, but from a technical perspective, it sure looks a great setup for a reversal.

When you look closer there appears to be a wedge shape or what market technicians call a "bearish wedge". We see these patterns at the top and bottom of a trend as the momentum slows down and the trend is in a transition and reversing the direction.

US Treasury

Having hit and exceeded my target, I suspect Bonds could see a bit more upside towards 153.50-154 based on the continuous contract.

Based on my Elliott Wave count from the 1981 low, I suspect this is actually inside wave 5 and near a terminal phase of this bull market, although we still don't have any strong evidence to confirm the bull market is over, based on the wedge shape the odds still do look good for a reversal close by.

Close by in this market means weeks and months, as I think traders forget this is a 30 year span, not a 15 min chart, so a transition from topping to reversing lower is an ongoing event and will take months, but the fact that it clearly is showing a bearish looking wedge is a positive sign for the bears, but I think it will require a bit more patience for what arguably will be the "trade of the decade".

Have a profitable week ahead.

Click here to become a member

You can also follow us on twitter

What do we offer?

Short and long term analysis on US and European markets, various major FX pairs, commodities from Gold and silver to markets like natural gas.

Daily analysis on where I think the market is going with key support and resistance areas, we move and adjust as the market adjusts.

A chat room where members can discuss ideas with me or other members.

Members get to know who is moving the markets in the S&P pits*

*I have permission to post comments from the audio I hear from the S&P pits.

If you looking for quality analysis from someone that actually looks at multiple charts and works hard at providing members information to stay on the right side of the trends and making $$$, why not give the site a trial.

If any of the readers want to see this article in a PDF format.

Please send an e-mail to Enquires@wavepatterntraders.com

Please put in the header PDF, or make it known that you want to be added to the mailing list for any future articles.

Or if you have any questions about becoming a member, please use the email address above.

If you like what you see, or want to see more of my work, then please sign up for the 4 week trial.

This article is just a small portion of the markets I follow.

I cover many markets, from FX to US equities, right the way through to commodities.

If I have the data I am more than willing to offer requests to members.

Currently new members can sign up for a 4 week free trial to test drive the site, and see if my work can help in your trading and if it meets your requirements.

If you don't like what you see, then drop me an email within the 1st 4 weeks from when you join, and ask for a no questions refund.

You simply have nothing to lose.

By Jason Soni AKA Nouf

© 2012 Copyright Jason Soni AKA Nouf - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History