Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Trump Delirium Triggers Stock Market Brexit Upwards Crash Towards Dow 20,000! - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Future Price Of Gold Will Drop Below $1000 In 2017 -InvestingHaven
3.May Never Get Another Opportunity to Buy Gold at this Level Again - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Delirium - The Real Reason Why Donald Trump Won the US Presidential Election - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Why Nate Silver / Fivethirtyeight is one of the Most Reliable Election Forecasting Indicator? - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Gold Price Forecast: Nasty Naughty November Gold Price Trend - I_M_Vronsky
7.Gold Mining Stocks Screaming Buy! Q3’16 Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
8.Delirium of Trump Mania Win's Mr BrExit US Presidential Election 2016 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.The War On Cash Goes Nuclear In India, Australia and Across The World - Jeff_Berwick
10.Hidden Signs for Gold and Silver - P_Radomski_CFA
Last 7 days
Gold and Silver Bullion Buying Opportunity for 2017? - 4th Dec 16
First UK BrExit then Trump, Next BrExit Tsunami Wave to Hit Italy HARD Sunday! - 3rd Dec 16
The 10YR Yield and SPX Stocks Bull Markets - 3rd Dec 16
Gold And Silver – Do Not Expect Much Difference With Trump Compared To Obama - 3rd Dec 16
Gold, Currencies and Markets Critical 61.8% Retracements - 2nd Dec 16
Gold Junior Stocks Q3’16 Fundamentals - 2nd Dec 16
Adventures in Castro’s Cuba - 2nd Dec 16
We Are Putting Off the Inevitable - 2nd Dec 16
Macroeconomic Cycles & Demographics - A Fuse, An Explosive and The Igniting Catalyst - 2nd Dec 16
How Moving Averages Can Identify a Trade - 1st Dec 16
Silver Prices and Interest Rates - 1st Dec 16
America, is it Finally time for us to say Goodbye? - 1st Dec 16
Blockchain Technology – What Is It and How Will It Change Your Life? - 1st Dec 16
Burn the Flags, Can Trump Salvage The Sinking US Economic Ship? - 1st Dec 16
Will US Housing Real Estate Market Tank in 2017? - 1st Dec 16
Referendum Puts Italy's Government to the Test - 30th Nov 16
Why We Haven’t Seen Gold Price Rally after Trump Victory - 30th Nov 16
Breakdown and Slide in Crude Oil Price - 30th Nov 16
A 'Wicked Rally' in Gold Price Predicted - 30th Nov 16
Silver Market Sentiment Looks Golden - 30th Nov 16
Indian Demonetization Denotes Severe Stress in the Global Gold Market - 30th Nov 16
Owning Gold and Silver in Troubling Times - 29th Nov 16
Trump's Presidency - Stock Market Crash or Start of New Mega-Trends - 29th Nov 16
Prime Minister Modi's War Against Corruption, Black Money and Fake Currency Notes in India - 29th Nov 16
Can President Trump Really Drain the Swamp? - 29th Nov 16
President Trump’s Economic Plan Isn’t Going to Work - 29th Nov 16
The US Bond Bear Market Has Begun! - 29th Nov 16
Simple Yet Powerful Technical Trading Tools - 28th Nov 16
Public Infrastructure – Welcome to the World of Waste, Fraud, and Abuse - 28th Nov 16
Fifty Years Later, Moore's Computing Law Holds - 28th Nov 16
An Elusive Stock Market Top - 28th Nov 16
This Past Week in Gold - 27th Nov 16
Italian Bank Collapse European Sovereign Bond Carnage, Criss-Crossed Fuses & Lit Bonfire - 27th Nov 16
How to Beat UK Savings Crisis with Child Junior Cash ISA, Pension's and Life-time ISA - 27th Nov 16
Castro Was Not Who You Thought He Was - 27th Nov 16
Understanding the Trump Presidency , Beyond Merkel - 26th Nov 16
US Stocks Bull Market New All Time Highs - 26th Nov 16
Silver Mining Stocks Q3 2016 Fundamentals - 26th Nov 16
MSM's Stock Market Druck'n Suck-In Continues - 26th Nov 16
Gold Price Down 13.5% In 13 Days - Opportunity For Geometric Price Cost Averaging - 26th Nov 16
Tips for Trading Options with Elliott Waves - 26th Nov 16
Germany Pulls the Plug on Market Oracle site for 24 hours, German Election BrExit GerExit Warning Shot? - 26th Nov 16
New NS&I 2.2% Savings Bond Ahead of 2017 Stealth Inflation Theft of Purchasing Power - 24th Nov 16
Establishment Controlled Mainstream Media Launches War on Alternative 'Fake' News - 24th Nov 16
Black Friday Cheap Christmas Lights, How Long do they Last ? B&M Stores Review Video - 24th Nov 16
War On Cash Goes Global – India and Citibank In Australia - 24th Nov 16
Stocks, the Politically-Driven S.O.D. to Lose Again - 24th Nov 16
One of the best buying opportunities in history? - 24th Nov 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

$10000 Gold

Is The US Bond Market Ponzi Scheme Coming To An End?

Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates Nov 25, 2012 - 10:08 AM GMT

By: WavePatternTraders

Interest-Rates

The US Bond market has been in a bull market since the 1980s and although I originally was looking for a potential high early this year, we have not really progressed much further, expect that real rates have come down even lower and tested the prior December 2008 lows at 2.5%, potentially creating a double bottom.


No one knows for sure how low yields can go, but from a technical perspective, it sure looks a great setup for a reversal.

When you look closer there appears to be a wedge shape or what market technicians call a "bearish wedge". We see these patterns at the top and bottom of a trend as the momentum slows down and the trend is in a transition and reversing the direction.

US Treasury

Having hit and exceeded my target, I suspect Bonds could see a bit more upside towards 153.50-154 based on the continuous contract.

Based on my Elliott Wave count from the 1981 low, I suspect this is actually inside wave 5 and near a terminal phase of this bull market, although we still don't have any strong evidence to confirm the bull market is over, based on the wedge shape the odds still do look good for a reversal close by.

Close by in this market means weeks and months, as I think traders forget this is a 30 year span, not a 15 min chart, so a transition from topping to reversing lower is an ongoing event and will take months, but the fact that it clearly is showing a bearish looking wedge is a positive sign for the bears, but I think it will require a bit more patience for what arguably will be the "trade of the decade".

Have a profitable week ahead.

Click here to become a member

You can also follow us on twitter

What do we offer?

Short and long term analysis on US and European markets, various major FX pairs, commodities from Gold and silver to markets like natural gas.

Daily analysis on where I think the market is going with key support and resistance areas, we move and adjust as the market adjusts.

A chat room where members can discuss ideas with me or other members.

Members get to know who is moving the markets in the S&P pits*

*I have permission to post comments from the audio I hear from the S&P pits.

If you looking for quality analysis from someone that actually looks at multiple charts and works hard at providing members information to stay on the right side of the trends and making $$$, why not give the site a trial.

If any of the readers want to see this article in a PDF format.

Please send an e-mail to Enquires@wavepatterntraders.com

Please put in the header PDF, or make it known that you want to be added to the mailing list for any future articles.

Or if you have any questions about becoming a member, please use the email address above.

If you like what you see, or want to see more of my work, then please sign up for the 4 week trial.

This article is just a small portion of the markets I follow.

I cover many markets, from FX to US equities, right the way through to commodities.

If I have the data I am more than willing to offer requests to members.

Currently new members can sign up for a 4 week free trial to test drive the site, and see if my work can help in your trading and if it meets your requirements.

If you don't like what you see, then drop me an email within the 1st 4 weeks from when you join, and ask for a no questions refund.

You simply have nothing to lose.

By Jason Soni AKA Nouf

© 2012 Copyright Jason Soni AKA Nouf - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife