Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Dow Short-term Stock Market Trend Analysis - 6th Mar 21
Intel Rocket Lake EXPLODE on Launch - 11th Gen CPU's RUN VERY HOT Bad Cinebench R20 Scores - 6th Mar 21
US & UK Head for Post Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown Inflationary Economic BOOM - 6th Mar 21
FED Balance Sheet Current State - 5th Mar 21
The Global Vaccine Race Against Time and Variants - 5th Mar 21
US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger A Crazy Ivan Event (Again) In Stock Market - 5th Mar 21
After Gold’s Slide, What Happens to Miners? - 5th Mar 21
Racism Pandemic Why UK Black and Asians NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 BAME - 5th Mar 21
Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021 - 4th Mar 21
Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? - 4th Mar 21
The Top Technologies That Are Transforming the Casino Industry - 4th Mar 21
How to Get RICH Crypto Mining Bitcoin, Ethereum With NiceHash - 4th Mar 21
Coronavirus Pandemic Vaccines Indicator Current State - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations Explained - 3rd Mar 21
Stock Market Bull Trend in Jeopardy - 3rd Mar 21
New Global Reserve Currency? - 3rd Mar 21
Gold To Monetary Base Ratio Says No Hyperinflation - 3rd Mar 21
US Fed Grilled about Its Unsound Currency, Digital Currency Schemes - 3rd Mar 21
The Case Against Inflation - 3rd Mar 21
How to Start Crypto Mining Bitcoins, Ethereum with Your Desktop PC, Laptop with NiceHash - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing Portfolio Buying Levels and Valuations 2021 Explained - 2nd Mar 21
There’s A “Chip” Shortage: And TSMC Holds All The Cards - 2nd Mar 21
Why now might be a good time to buy gold and gold juniors - 2nd Mar 21
Silver Is Close To Something Big - 2nd Mar 21
Bitcoin: Let's Put 2 Heart-Pounding Price Drops into Perspective - 2nd Mar 21
Gold Stocks Spring Rally 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
Covid-19 Vaccinations US House Prices Trend Indicator 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
How blockchain technology will change the online casino - 2nd Mar 21
How Much PC RAM Memory is Good in 2021, 16gb, 32gb or 64gb? - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis - 26th Feb 21
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls - 26th Feb 21
Kiss of Life for Gold - 26th Feb 21
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market - 26th Feb 21
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 - 26th Feb 21
The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues - 25th Feb 21
Vaccine inequality: A new beginning or another missed opportunity? - 25th Feb 21
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out - 25th Feb 21
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! - 25th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! - 25th Feb 21
Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater - 25th Feb 21
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply - 25th Feb 21
US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) - 24th Feb 21
Should You Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? - 24th Feb 21
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! - 24th Feb 21
M&A Most Commonly Used Software - 24th Feb 21
Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? - 24th Feb 21
VUZE XR Camera 180 3D VR Example Footage Video Image quality - 24th Feb 21
How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options - 24th Feb 21
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? - 24th Feb 21
2 Stocks That Could Win Big In The Trillion Dollar Battery War - 24th Feb 21
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 - 23rd Feb 21
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals - 23rd Feb 21
7 Things Every Businessman Should Know - 23rd Feb 21
For Stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped? - 23rd Feb 21
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? - 23rd Feb 21
Precious Metals Under Seige? - 23rd Feb 21
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review - 23rd Feb 21
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply - 23rd Feb 21
Stock Markets Discounting Post Covid Economic Boom - 22nd Feb 21
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard - 22nd Feb 21
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle - 22nd Feb 21
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? - 22nd Feb 21
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? - 22nd Feb 21
How to Test NEW and Used GPU, and Benchmark to Make sure it is Working Properly - 22nd Feb 21
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator - 21st Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat - 21st Feb 21
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? - 21st Feb 21
Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets - 21st Feb 21
Great Investment Ideas For 2021 - 21st Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

2013 - The Year of the Gold Bull?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Jan 06, 2013 - 09:04 AM GMT

By: Adam_Brochert

Commodities

2012 wasn't a fun year for most Gold bulls. Seeing the S&P 500 outperform Gold and seeing Gold stocks get decimated through the 1st half of the year was enough to create suicidal sentiment that is now only marginally improved after another prolonged correction in the precious metals (PM) sector to end the year. But as the many calls for an end of the PM bull market by several of the same people who have been wrong / missed out the whole way up get louder, the risk in the PM sector gets lower and lower.


The bigger picture hasn't changed and isn't going to for some time: a major private sector secular economic contraction in the West being fought with manufactured money/credit units by governments and central bankstaz. This is not a period to favor paper, as reflected by common stocks, over Gold. My trade of the year for 2013 is the same as my favored trade back in August: go long the "Gold to Dow" ratio (or short the "Dow to Gold" ratio).

The secular chart of the S&P 500 (a broader index) to Gold ratio shows that time has run out for the paperbugs on this correction:

Of course, such a ratio chart doesn't tell us anything about nominal prices of either of these items. But it does tell us that a shiny piece of metal with no dividends or growth prospects should continue to trounce the wizards of Wall Street over the next several years. This is the forest one does not want to lose sight of the next time Warren Buffett talks about how perplexed he is by Gold. Perhaps Warren should have listened to his father, Howard (a congressman), a little more:

"I warn you that politicians of both parties will oppose the restoration of gold, although they may outwardly seemingly favor it, unless you are willing to surrender your children and your country to galloping inflation, war and slavery then this cause demands your support. For if human liberty is to survive in America, we must win the battle to restore honest money."
[Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/tired-of-warren-buffett-trashing-gold-here-are-some-quotes-from-his-gold-loving-father-2012-2?op=1#ixzz2GeRslYDz]

Now, I am not interested in politics, as I fully expect politicians to play their role and do the exact opposite of the right thing regardless of which party or platform they claim to represent. I also don't believe that a Gold standard can fix the world's problems, as governments controlling money is the problem, not the form of monetary system governments foist upon the masses. In most countries in the world currently, one is free to save in Gold rather than paper currency, which is the important thing for pragmatists like myself. But if one uses history as a guide, I think Howard Buffett was closer to the mark than his son Warren.

In any case, Gold will win over Warren and his paperbug minions this cycle because it is simply the time for this to occur. Cycles in markets exist much like cycles in nature, as financial markets are but a manifestation of the thoughts and emotions of one of nature's more curious species. We are in a secular fear and uncertainty cycle for conventional financial assets, which benefits Gold.

Moving from the philosophical to the tactical, now is the time to be bullish on Gold and its derivatives, not bearish. The intermediate term correction from the fall 2012 highs in the PM sector was much longer and deeper than I thought it would be, but we are where we are now. And keeping a healthy perspective on the intermediate term, the current set up is much more likely to lead to a bullish outcome than a bearish one. Here's a 12 year weekly chart of Gold thru Friday's close to show you what I mean:

And the beleaguered Gold stock sector is also oversold and significantly undervalued for the 3rd time in the past year. An interesting phenomenon occurred to end last week, however, in the small cap Gold mining sector. Using the GLDX ETF as a proxy for the explorer/small cap Gold mining sector, here is the weekly price action over the past few years thru Friday's close:

I remain wildly bullish on the whole PM sector. If you would like some assistance navigating the PM sector with an orientation towards trading the intermediate-term swings, I publish a low cost subscription trading service that is only $15/month. Otherwise, keep the faith and hold onto your PM sector items tight. Don't let the short and intermediate-term noise distract you from what still promises to be a secular bull market for the history books. The Dow to Gold ratio will hit 2 (and we may well go below 1 this cycle).

Adam Brochert
abrochert@yahoo.com
http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com

BIO: Markets and cycles are my new hobby. I've seen the writing on the wall for the U.S. and the global economy and I am seeking financial salvation for myself (and anyone else who cares to listen) while Rome burns around us.

© 2013 Copyright Adam Brochert - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules