Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Election Forecast 2015 - Opinion Polls Trending Towards Conservative Outright Win - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK Solar Eclipse - End Time Sign, Judgement Day, Doomsday! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold And Silver - When Will Precious Metals Rally? Not In 2015 - Michael_Noonan
4.Preparing for the Next Stocks Bear Market - Forecast 2015-2016 - Gary_Savage
5.Is a Stock Market Crash Imminent? - David Eifrig
6.Gold Price Slumps as US Dollar Soars, What's Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Dollar Forex Pairs and Gold Chartology - Rambus_Chartology
8.Election Forecast 2015: The Day Labour Lost the General Election - Nadeem_Walayat
9.The ECB Should End QE Next Month - EconMatters
10.Silver Price Poised to Surge - Zeal_LLC
Last 5 days
David Cameron Election 2015 Debate Facts Check - Employment, Immigration, Debt & Deficit - 29th Mar 15
Stock Market About Ready to Crash! - 29th Mar 15
Reflections in a Golden Eye - Gold Market Rejection, Repatriation and Redemption - 28th Mar 15
Stock Market Inflection Point - 28th Mar 15
Gold And Silver - What Moved Price? Bab el-Mandeb And Uranus Square Pluto. What?! - 28th Mar 15
Stock Market Investment Parachutes; Do You Have Yours? - 28th Mar 15
Peak Gold Misunderstanding, is Gold About to Run Out? - 28th Mar 15
Deflation Watch: Key U.S. Economic Measures Turn South - 27th Mar 15
The Hard-Earned Truth About Recreational Real Estate - 27th Mar 15
Bitcoin Price Still in Important Territory - 27th Mar 15
Stocks Bear Market Conditions - Index Market Range Warning - 27th Mar 15
BEA Leaves Q4 2014 U.S. GDP Growth Essentially Unchanged at 2.22% - 27th Mar 15
Brazil Economy Victim of Vulgar Keynesianism - 27th Mar 15
Gold to Fuel Silver Price Upleg - 27th Mar 15
Gold and Silver Stocks Will Rise Again! - 27th Mar 15
Risk of ‘World War’ between NATO and Russia on Ukraine as Yemen Bombed - 27th Mar 15
FOMC Minutes Turned The Gold Tide - 27th Mar 15
Sheffield Hallam Election Battle 2015 - Lib Dems Go to War Whilst Labour Sleeps - 27th Mar 15
Gold Effect On Mining & Shale Wasteland - 27th Mar 15
How Stock Investors Should Play the 2016 Presidential Race - 26th Mar 15
MidEast Energy Alert: Why the Crisis in Yemen Could Get Ugly Very Fast - 26th Mar 15
Stock Market Downward Spiral of Dumbness - 26th Mar 15
The Monetary Approach Reigns Supreme - 26th Mar 15
Stock Market Large Gap Down, Despite the Algos' Push Back - 26th Mar 15
Crude Oil Surges, Gold price Spikes as Middle East Tensions Escalate - 26th Mar 15
The U.S. Housing Market Recovery Is Fabricated Optimism - 26th Mar 15
Why Yemen Is The Next Saudi-Iranian Battleground - 26th Mar 15
The Crude Oil Price Crash and China Economic Slow Down - 26th Mar 15
Global Financial Markets Are More Distorted Than Ever Before - 26th Mar 15
One More Stock Market Rally and Then a Huge Drop Expected - 26th Mar 15
Danger Will Robinson - Stock Market Crash Warning - 25th Mar 15
Learn the Basics of Corrective Elliott Waves - 25th Mar 15
Why CNBC Is Hazardous to Your Financial Health! - 25th Mar 15
Will Your Retirement Accounts Survive The Coming Tax Code "Revolution"? - 25th Mar 15
US Dollar - Americas Phoenix - 25th Mar 15
California’s Epic Drought: Only One Year of Water Left! - 25th Mar 15
What’s Wrong With Silver? - 25th Mar 15
SPX Futures Appear Weak. WTIC and Gold May Be at Max Retracement - 25th Mar 15
We’re at the Dawn of a “New Energy Age” - 25th Mar 15
A Very Weak U.S. Economic Recovery - 25th Mar 15
Zero UK CPI Inflation Rate Prompts Deflation Danger Propaganda For Fresh Money Printing - 25th Mar 15
Stock Market NYSE Hi-Lo Index Aggressive Sell Signal - 24th Mar 15
Palladium Commodity Price Forecast - 24th Mar 15
Bitcoin Price Gearing Up for a Fall - 24th Mar 15
Safety Deposit Boxes In UK Being Closed By ‏HSBC – Not Closing Gold Vaults - 24th Mar 15
Japan Short Term Gains And Long Term Disaster - 24th Mar 15
China's Fragile Evolution - 24th Mar 15
David Cameron Announces Resignation Even Before Being Re-elected, Handing Labour 6 Seats - 24th Mar 15
City of London's Ownership of American Colonies - 24th Mar 15
Stock Market Reversal May Have Begun - 24th Mar 15
Casey Gathers Top Gold Experts to Share Secrets for Making Money in Any Market - 24th Mar 15
Thoughts on The Current Crude Oil Market - 24th Mar 15
U.S. Economy Still on Life Support - What Your Governments Hiding From You... - 24th Mar 15
UK Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail, SNP Insurgency Catastrophe - Video - 24th Mar 15
Is Stock Market Minor Top Taking Hold? - 23rd Mar 15
Greece and EU Running Out of Time as Bank Runs Intensify - 23rd Mar 15
Stock Market Slightly Negative Expectations Following Last Week's Rally - 23rd Mar 15
This Rising Interest Rates Play Could Make You a Quick 55% - 23rd Mar 15
Platinum Commodity Price False Break Low - 23rd Mar 15
The Real Reason The American Dream is Unraveling - 23rd Mar 15
Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail to Impress Voters, Tory's Lose Seats in Opinion Polls - 23rd Mar 15
Silver Price Reliance During U.S. Dollar Rally - 23rd Mar 15
old Price Outlook Dramatic Improvement Following US Dollar Topping Action - 23rd Mar 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

US Economy Still on Life Support

Gold and the Developed World in the Face of Massive Change in the Next Two Decades

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Feb 25, 2013 - 12:02 PM GMT

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Commodities

In the last five years, we have seen the start of the decline of the developed world and the real impact of the economic rise of China on that world. What lies ahead? James Wolfensohn, the ex-president of the World Bank gave a short lecture in which he forecasts what the world's cash flows would be like in 2030:


  • For the last century and far more, 80% of the cash flow of the world flowed to what we know as the developed world where 20% of the people lived. Twenty percent of the cash flow went to the underdeveloped world where 80% of the world's population lived.

  • By 2030 these numbers will have changed dramatically, with 35% of the cash flow of the world going to the developed world and 65% of the world's cash flow going to the 'emerging' world, primarily China and India.

  • In addition, he says that there will be 1 billion middle class people in China by 2050 - a figure we had previously put at 300 million. This is more than the total population of the U.S.A. and the Eurozone put together. Worldwide there will be 3 billion people in the middle classes with two thirds of them in Asia.

Think for a moment what this will mean to you individually and the world in which you live. Unless one tries to understand them, we will become a victim of the changes. The ramifications are vast; they become almost impossible to detail in advance. We can forecast principal and principle changes but will almost certainly be wrong in specific details. We then look at the changes that will affect the precious metal worlds, but even here we can only make broad sweeps.

Uncertainty & Instability

We can be absolutely sure that man cannot weather these changes without uncertainty and instability on a scale not seen since the World Wars. This is the first ingredient that we must factor into the future and man's way of coping.

The fact that the Prime Minister of Britain has taken a huge delegation this week to India shows that the developed world is starting to try to adapt to these coming changes. Britain is even minting gold sovereigns, a coin with emotional connotations in India. But we do not see Asia turning to the developed world as partners in the future. The pattern to date has to mimic the developed world's skills, and then do it cheaper at home, exporting the products back to the people who taught them at a lower price! So the wealth and power of the developed world seeps across to the East and will continue to do so until emerging world income rises to the same level as developed world income or developed world income fall to that of the emerging world.

It's clear that Asia is not an ally of the developed world nor are they committed to helping the developed world. The saying is true that nations have interests, not friends. This will be the case between the two sides of the world. Asia sees its first priority in lifting itself up and using developed world markets to help do that.

The developed world may see only flat growth in the medium-term, reminiscent of the postwar-era when Britain, with its outdated equipment, was quickly overtaken by Japan, where after the war everything was built new, from scratch. Both China and India are in a similar position now. As a result, manufacturing will continue to go east.

As the pressure grows on the developed world, the developed world may be pressured into protectionism to survive. The initiation of the U.S./European Free Trade Zone this month is the start of such survival techniques. Consequently, economic pressures will escalate into tension between East and West in global trade. The arrival of the Yuan onto the global stage will exacerbate these.

Change in the Monetary World

But the direct point of impact of these growing pressures will be in the monetary world. This was highlighted last week in the G-7 and G-20 meetings where quantitative easing was justified and its direct impact on the exchange rates minimized. This attitude directly undermines stability in foreign exchanges and, worse still, makes acceptable the undermining of the foreign exchange rate system itself and the need for currencies to be reliable measures of value. We have no doubt that the self-interested positions that this demonstrates will continue to grow and worsen to the detriment of the global economy. After these statements, we're seeing sterling continue to fall. Expect to see the Yen fall to 100+ against the USD.

Since the last war the developed world has interlinked with the U.S. in a tight knit monetary system based on the dollar, the only currency with which to buy oil. With Asia rising and with the Yuan shortly to make its appearance on the global reserve currency table, the dollar will lose a great deal of its control over both oil and the global monetary system. It will retain its hold over O.P.E.C. but not over Russia and if it agrees on a defined trading range between the euro and the dollar will ensure Europe pays for its non-European oil in dollars still. It's likely, however, that Russian sales of oil and gas to Europe will be made in Rubles or euros, not dollars. Therefore, there will be a loosening of both the U.S. grip over oil supplies and the dollar's grip over the monetary world.

We cannot see the developed world willingly cooperating with any demands made by rising Asia as this will probably be at the expense of the West's influence and power over the monetary system.

For instance, in order for Asia to get the voting power it would warrant in line with its rising power, it would request that it get a good chunk of the voting power. It would also request that the I.M.F. lower the number of votes needed to pass a resolution from 85% to say, 70% with it getting a similar number of votes as the U.S. Its alternative is to set up an equivalent body to the World Bank and the I.M.F. - a process it has already started.

Overall expect to see the world fragment into a series of blocs with their trading partners reliant on them. This would inevitably lead to more protectionism and monetary fragmentation.

Alongside this and to reinforce the fragmentation and consolidation of self-interest in these groups, another worldwide development will begin. Both these blocs and all the nations left out in the cold will have to turn to Capital and Currency Controls to hold on to their country's capital. The 'carry trade' of borrowers in low interest currencies and lenders into high interest rate nations would be controlled to prevent the probable tsunamis of capital sloshing between the blocs.

The Capital controls that are seen in Iceland at the moment are the consequences of such crises. These will become increasingly common across the world.

But the most life-changing facet of these changes for the developed monetary world will be that the damage done to the credibility of the leading currencies, the dollar and the euro. They will lose their current percentages of global reserves, being replaced to some extent by the Yuan and possibly other Asian currencies.

The current weakening of the Yen, Sterling and Swiss Franc are making this point right now. This process has to continue as nations, in the cause of growth, will progressively weaken their currencies and provoke retaliation from the nations who lose their advantage because of such moves.

The process of fragmentation will create currency volatility that undermines confidence in the entire monetary system. The current discussion of a Currency War will morph into a revolution against the corporation we saw in the past and see to a large extent now. We reiterate that this entire process will be exacerbated by the arrival and growth of the Yuan as an increasingly important global reserve currency.

In turn, there will be a rising need for non-national, liquid, internationally acceptable assets that would support global currencies when used internationally. We know of only one at the moment and that is gold.

Gold Forecaster regularly covers all fundamental and Technical aspects of the gold price in the weekly newsletter. To subscribe, please visit www.GoldForecaster.com

By Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money

Copyright 2012 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved.
Julian Phillips - was receiving his qualifications to join the London Stock Exchange. He was already deeply immersed in the currency turmoil engulfing world in 1970 and the Institutional Gold Markets, and writing for magazines such as "Accountancy" and the "International Currency Review" He still writes for the ICR.

What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market.

Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.

Julian DW Phillips Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014