Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Reversal!

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Aug 06, 2013 - 10:07 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Today is day 258 in the VIX Master Cycle which started on November 21, five days after the SPX Master Cycle low on November 16. Since the November low, we saw a 75-month low on March 15, Marking s Super Cycle Wave (b) low. Since then, the pattern has been confusing, overlapping and somewhat irregular, leaning me in the direction of labeling it as corrective and leaving the door open for a possible lower low in the July-August time frame. Thankfully, this hasn’t happened. Instead, the VIX presents us with an expanding Leading Diagonal, an overlapping, irregular, but impulsive Intermediate Wave [1] which peaked on June 24. Intermediate Wave [2] shows an impulsive Wave (A) and an Ending Diagonal Wave (C).


This is exactly the kind of behavior that I want to see from the reversal… sharp and quick. The Ending Diagonal trendline is broken and VIX is wasting no time in its vault to the upside.

After peaking on Master Cycle day 259 (Friday), SPX has broken a minor support at 1705.00, the upper trendline of the larger Broadening Wedge and is now heading for the lower trendline of the Broadening Wedge at 1683.00. Any bounces at short-term support (red) or the hourly mid-Cycle support at 1688.29 should be brief and mild.

No one is paying attention to the decline yet. I suspect that they will sit up and take notice at the 50-day moving average at 1649.90, however. That would mean a month of gains may be gone in just a few days.

GLD had peaked on July 23, which is the same time I had targeted for the SPX. Since then it has been held off by the declining 50-day moving average and today it has broken through its Intermediate-Term support/resistance line at 124.66. Should it break below its prior low at 114. 68, there is a massive Head & Shoulders neckline that suggests a drop in Cycle Wave 3 to 60.00! The implications for gold are similar.

TLT is solidly beneath its Head & Shoulders neckline, indicating that it may decline to its target of 82.88, which is very near the Broadening Wedge average target of 86.40. This corresponds roughly with a Cycle Model target yield of 5.6% and a break of the long-term 32-year trendline in the long bond.

Regards,

Tony

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in