Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
IBM - Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Stocks - 25th May 19
Seasonal Dysfunction: Why Generations of Gold and Silver Investors Are Having Such Difficulty - 25th May 19
Employment - The Good and the Bad of Job Automation - 25th May 19
Gold Mining Mid-Tier Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 19
Buy This Pick-and-Shovel 5G Stock Before It Takes Off - 25th May 19
China Hang Seng Stocks Index Collapses and Commodities - 24th May 19
Costco Corp. (COST): Finding Opportunity in Five Minutes or Less - 24th May 19
How Free Bets Have Impacted the Online Casino Industry - 24th May 19
This Ultimate Formula Will Help You Avoid Dividend Cutting Stocks - 24th May 19
Benefits of a Lottery Online Account - 24th May 19
Technical Analyst: Gold Price Weakness Should Be Short Term - 24th May 19
Silver Price Looking Weaker than Gold - 24th May 19
Nigel Farage's Brexit Party EU Elections Seats Results Forecast - 24th May 19
Powerful Signal from Gold GDX - 24th May 19
Eye Opening Currency Charts – Why Precious Metals Are Falling - 23rd May 19
Netflix Has 175 Days Left to Pull Off a Miracle… or It’s All Over - 23rd May 19
Capitalism Works, Ravenous Capitalism Doesn’t - 23rd May 19
The Euro Is Bidding Its Time: A Reversal at Hand? - 23rd May 19
Gold Demand Rose 7% in Q1 2019. A Launching Pad Higher for Gold? - 23rd May 19
Global Economic Tensions Translate Into Oil Price Volatility - 22nd May 19
The Coming Pension Crisis Is So Big That It’s a Problem for Everyone - 22nd May 19
Crude Oil, Hot Stocks, and Currencies – Markets III - 22nd May 19
The No.1 Energy Stock for 2019 - 22nd May 19
Brexit Party and Lib-Dems Pull Further Away from Labour and Tories in Latest Opinion Polls - 22nd May 19
The Deep State vs Donald Trump - US vs Them Part 2 - 21st May 19
Deep State & Financial Powers Worry about Alternative Currencies - 21st May 19
Gold’s Exciting Boredom - 21st May 19
Trade War Fears Again, Will Stocks Resume the Downtrend? - 21st May 19
Buffett Mistake Costs Him $4.3 Billion This Year—Here’s What Every Investor Can Learn from It - 21st May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - Video - 20th May 19
A Brief History of Financial Entropy - 20th May 19
Gold, MMT, Fiat Money Inflation In France - 20th May 19
WAR - Us versus Them Narrative - 20th May 19
US - Iran War Safe-haven Reasons to Own Gold - 20th May 19
How long does Google have to reference a website? - 20th May 19
Tory Leadership Contest - Will Michael Gove Stab Boris Johnson in the Back Again? - 19th May 19
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally - 19th May 19
Will Stock Market “Sell in May, Go Away” Lead to a Correction… or a Crash? - 19th May 19
US vs. Global Stocks Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 - 19th May 19
BrExit Party EarthQuake Could Win it 150 MP's at Next UK General Election! - 18th May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - 18th May 19
US Economy to Die a Traditional Death… Inflation Is Going to Move Higher - 18th May 19
Trump’s Trade War Is Good for These 3 Dividend Stocks - 18th May 19
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Update - 17th May 19
Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? - 17th May 19
The Use of Technical Analysis for Forex Traders - 17th May 19
Brexit Party Set to Storm EU Parliament Elections - Seats Forecast - 17th May 19
Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? - 17th May 19
This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red - 17th May 19
War! Good or Bad for Stocks? - 17th May 19
How Many Seats Will Brexit Party Win - EU Parliament Elections Forecast 2019 - 16th May 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

The Effects of a US Housing Market Crash

Housing-Market / US Housing Sep 10, 2006 - 06:00 PM GMT

By: Sarah_Jones

Housing-Market

House prices across the atlantic continue to tumble across the board, with the National Association of Realtors, reporting a price fall of 1.7 per cent last month to $225,000 (£118,000), while sales of existing homes drop 0.5% to an annual rate of 6.3 million. At the same time, ever more owners are being forced to put properties on the market as mortgage rates have steadily risen, further dimming prospects of an improvement in the short term. The total of existing homes on the market is now the highest since April 1993.

As house prices fall, there will likely be many more defaults on mortgage products, such as ARM (adjustable rate mortgages), which the US borrowers were not used to a floating interest rate instead having relied on fixed rate products, now as interest rates have risen to 5.25% from just 1% have seen a surge in foreclosures reaching some 116,000 in August, up 53% on a year ago.


In many cases this effect will be magnified due to the speculative derivatives contracts betting on house prices and mortgage packages. These will hit financial institutions across the globe, as the bad debts and derivative losses's mount.

The question we ask is what effect will this have on the US and global economy ?

The consumer has supported the US & Global economy during the past 5 years by withdrawing over $750billion in equity against rising house prices for consumption. The fall in house prices is likely to have a dramatic effect on consumption and therefore economic growth. Already the latest GDP figures show a halving in growth from earlier in the year down to 2.6% from 5.2%.

The roots of the current problem can be traced back to the stock market crash of 2000, when the Fed lowered rates 17 times to an unbelievable 1% to keep the economy sputtering along while the Bush administration dragged the US into war, and gave away a further $450 billion a year in tax cuts, resulting in large and growing budget deficits in each of the subsquent years. Rather than face the recession that should have followed the 2000 crash. Some 10 trillion dollars of this excess money supply flowed into US property doubling its value, and leading to the ever more debt taken on by the US consumer to finance spending.

Unfortunately, everything that happened in the boom years is likely to go into reverse, where the consumer reduces spending to pay the ever rising mortgage payments due to rising interest rates, whilst at the same time the value of their properties fall, pushing many households into negative equity. two thirds of the U.S. economy is dependant on consumer spending and some 30% of the jobs created since 2001 were as a result of the housing boom, the downturn is going to have devastating consequences for the US and global economy.

So what to do about it ?What is happening in the US is a warning shot of what to expect in the UK during 2007, the key lessons are to pay down debt, cut spending, and if your looking to sell, do it sooner rather than later.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules