Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment - 17th Oct 19
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles - 17th Oct 19
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report - 17th Oct 19
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 16th Oct 19
This Is Not a Money Printing Press - 16th Oct 19
Online Casino Operator LeoVegas is Optimistic about the Future - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

How to Profit from "Margin Call" on American Homeowners

Housing-Market / US Housing Jun 09, 2014 - 05:13 PM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Housing-Market

Shah Gilani writes: Get ready. There's more trouble ahead for home buyers, home builders, and especially homeowners who took out home-equity lines of credit before the housing crisis. Those heydays have turned into haymakers.

What's already started to happen might not only knock out the formerly aspiring but now petering-out housing recovery, but also might knock the already weak economy to the ground.


Back in the good old days, when banks and mortgage shops were selling mortgage money and home-equity credit lines like carnival barkers wowing crowds into the big top, millions of homeowners stepped right in.

That circus tent was nothing but a trap, however. And now I'm going to tell you what that trap means for those borrowers... and the rest of the economy...

The "Custom" Mortgage Is About to Come Due

Intoxicated by rising home prices, in the years before 2007 or so, homeowners took out hundreds of billions of dollars in loans against the equity in their homes. What made the deals most enticing were the terms. Most of the so-called HELOCs were 10-year, interest-only loans (that sounds nice ...) that would "convert" into 15-year amortizing mortgages (uh-oh!).

(Remember when we all seemed to be using our homes as ATMs? What were we thinking?)

Well, those trigger dates have been firing indiscriminately, shooting a lot of homeowners where it hurts the most.

According to today's Wall Street Journal, some 817,000 homeowners, with $23 billion in loans, will see their interest-only holiday come to a reality-busting end this year. And this is just the beginning. Over the next three years, an average of $50 billion a year in HELOCs will be converting.

What does that look like to homeowners? The Journal cited two examples. A real borrower had his monthly payments on the $70,000 he borrowed rise from $270 a month to $560 a month. Those payments are "adjustable" and could rise dramatically if interest rates rise.

In an another example from the WSJ, a $100,000 loan with an interest-only payment plan and a 3.5% rate subjects the borrower to current monthly payments of $292. Once converted, the monthly payments will jump to $715 on a 15-year amortizing mortgage note. That would rise further to about $865 if interest rates rise three points.

The consumer credit reporting agency Equifax and the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency recently reported that delinquencies on HELOCs made during the heydays doubled last year over the previous year.

Homeowners aren't going to be able to refinance those HELOCs if they have less equity in their homes when the loans convert than when the loans were made - which is most of them.

Banks aren't going to be lending generously if and when delinquencies rise. And if home prices stall out here or, heaven forbid, backslide, there's no way there's going to be a flood, or even a trickle, of mortgage money available.

The housing market may be facing another wall. That means home builders may not be putting up as many houses as they had hoped. Because housing makes up about 15% to 20% of GDP, a drop in housing starts puts home sales, construction, remodeling, and all the other businesses and consumption trails associated with housing in the line of fire.

That puts the entire economy in the line of fire. And speaking of fire, the economy's first-quarter growth - make that negative growth of -1% - is a fire.

That's why we're short a bunch of housing-related plays at my Short-Side Fortunes newsletter.

We will be patient - our trades aren't going to pop overnight - but when the roof comes down, our house will be rockin'.

Editor's Note: The trades Shah's referring to, by the way, are dumbfoundingly simple to place. After making $80 million, in fact, the world's greatest investor said "it's the easiest money I ever made." And all you have to do is be willing to break one simple "rule." Just look at this chart.]

Source : http://moneymorning.com/2014/06/09/profit-massively-from-this-margin-call-on-american-homeowners/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2014 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules