Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Prepare For Unknown Stock Market Price Action As New Highs Are Reached - 23rd April 19
Silver Plays a Small but Vital Role in Every Portfolio - 23rd April 19
Forecasting 2020s : Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, and Japan-Like Flat Markets - 23rd April 19
Gold and Silver Give Traders Another Buying Opportunity - 23rd April 19
Stock Market Pause Should Extend - 21st April 19
Why Gold Has Been the Second Best Asset Class for the Last 20 Years - 21st April 19
Could Taxing the Rich Solve Income Inequality? - 21st April 19
Stock Market Euphoria Stunts Gold - 20th April 19
Is Political Partisanship Killing America? - 20th April 19
Trump - They Were All Lying - 20th April 19
The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” - 19th April 19
Growing Bird of Paradise Strelitzia Plants, Pruning and Flower Guide Over 4 Years - 19th April 19
S&P 500’s Downward Reversal or Just Profit-Taking Action? - 18th April 19
US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility - 18th April 19
Intel Corporation (INTC) Bullish Structure Favors More Upside - 18th April 19
Low New Zealand Inflation Rate Increases Chance of a Rate Cut - 18th April 19
Online Grocery Shopping Will Go Mainstream as Soon as This Year - 17th April 19
America Dancing On The Crumbling Precipice - 17th April 19
Watch The Financial Sector For The Next Stock Market Topping Pattern - 17th April 19
How Central Bank Gold Buying is Undermining the US Dollar - 17th April 19
Income-Generating Business - 17th April 19
INSOMNIA 64 Birmingham NEC Car Parking Info - 17th April 19
Trump May Regret His Fed Takeover Attempt - 16th April 19
Downside Risk in Gold & Gold Stocks - 16th April 19
Stock Market Melt-Up or Roll Over?…A Look At Two Scenarios - 16th April 19
Is the Stock Market Making a Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern? - 16th April 19
Will Powell’s Dovish Turn Support Gold? - 15th April 19
If History Is Any Indication, Stocks Should Rally Until the Fall of 2020 - 15th April 19
Stocks Get Closer to Last Year’s Record High - 15th April 19
Oil Price May Be Setup For A Move Back to $50 - 15th April 19
Stock Market Ready For A Pause! - 15th April 19
Shopping for Bargain Souvenirs in Fethiye Tuesday Market - Turkey Holidays 2019 - 15th April 19
From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Economic Prospects - 14th April 19
Stock Market Indexes Race For The New All-Time High - 14th April 19
Why Gold Price Will “Just Explode… in the Blink of an Eye” - 14th April 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top 10 AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Gold Headed for Summer Seasonal Weakness?

Commodities / Gold & Silver May 06, 2008 - 07:06 AM GMT

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Commodities The gold market in the past has been seasonal, with the rule being, "Sell in May and go away". This lull in demand usually started in May and lasted until the middle-to-end of August, with the main demand appearing in the final quarter of the year and lasting until the end of May. Will it be the same this year? Bear in mind a big fall has happened already this last month.


The Shape of Indian Demand
The heaviest influence on this seasonal pattern of gold has been jewelry demand from India, where as much as 850 tonnes of gold has been imported in past years. Their demand pattern is dominated by their weather; after May, crops have to be planted ready for the coming monsoons, bringing the crops to fruition in the early-to-middle parts of August. In the past, 70% of India's gold demand came from the agricultural sector, all of which is dependent on the weather.

India gold is far more than just jewelry. It has religious connotations, as well as financial relevance. In a country where respect for the civil service, appliers of the law and the Tax authorities is extremely low, the attraction of changing your tax-free agricultural profits into gold and property and then slipping under the tax radar is often irresistible. But a key feature of this demand for gold is the jewelry a bride takes as a dowry into her marriage. In a nation where family remains the heart of society this gift from the bride's parents [for wives don't own assets, but can own cash] is to ensure that the new couple start their married life with financial security. This makes the 'marriage season' [It is auspicious to marry in this season - tying in with religious beliefs], which comes to an end in the May, one of the important factors in the pattern of demand for gold. The climax of this demand is Akshaya Tritiya festival on the 7th May.

The "Doldrums"
It is similar in the developed West where the gold jewelry season also becomes becalmed as annual present-giving festivals are long way off at the end of the year. Gold then faces a global situation akin to the "Doldrums", a feature of the Atlantic Trade winds between South America and Africa, where the wind suddenly drops and leaves sailing ships becalmed until the Trade winds pick up again. But a glance at the last few years shows a distinct break in that pattern.

Take a look at the chart just for the last couple of years, which serves for the purpose of illustrating our point. In 2007 in the middle of the end-May to beginning-September you can see the gold price suddenly begin to take off from $542.61 to the mid $600's from early June to mid-August and actually drifting until mid-October. In 2008, the 'doldrums' returned and gold was uninteresting until the outbreak of the sub-prime crisis, but still ahead of the 'season' for gold. This is only the surface appearance of the events dictating the gold price.

"The seasonality of gold is being slowly overtaken by macro-economic and monetary events that dictate the gold price today."

 

For the entire report please visit www.GoldForecaster.com

By Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money

Copyright 2008 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved.
Julian Phillips - was receiving his qualifications to join the London Stock Exchange. He was already deeply immersed in the currency turmoil engulfing world in 1970 and the Institutional Gold Markets, and writing for magazines such as "Accountancy" and the "International Currency Review" He still writes for the ICR.

What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market.

Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.

Julian DW Phillips Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules