Stock Market in DANGER of Strangling the Bears to DeathStock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Jul 20, 2014 - 07:46 AM GMT
The 5+ year stocks bull market continues to tighten its noose around the bears throats, though despite reddening faces and bulging eyes this has not halted the increasingly exasperated calls for the stocks bull markets always imminent end to definitely end this time.
The stocks bull market has confounded, ALL and I mean ALL, that following each economic data release, that following so called 'expert' stocks trend analysis, that following escalating wars in Ukraine and the Khazar Empires rampage on the defenseless population of Palestine such as on the Gaza concentration camp now killing over 400 of the closest descendants of the original Jews of the region of 2000 years ago, that following even the Russian Mafia blasting a large passenger plane out of the sky killing near 300 which is the primary focus of U.S. Media as it looks at past air liners shot down whilst convientely forgetting the Iranian Passenger plane that the U.S. Shot down in 1988 killing all 290 on board.
All of which must, mean with near religious End Times fervour that this time the stocks bull market MUST have ended, only to find that the few percentages drop in the stock indices once more reversed towards a trend to NEW ALL TIME HIGHs as illustrated by indices such as the Dow.
The Dow reversed Thursdays price drop on the back of the Putin's terror henchmen blasting Flight MH17 out of east Ukrainian sky that the perma fanatically stock armageddonists had convinced themselves had heralded an end to the stocks bull market that as usual was regurgitated at length by the mainstream financial media.
Dow Summer Correction Fails to Materialise
My last in-depth look at the stock market concluded in the following trend expectation for a significant correction into the end of June before the Dow marched to new all time highs by early August.
05 Jun 2014 - Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast Summer 2014
Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
The final conclusion for the Stock Market is for the Dow's rally to shortly terminate just before reaching 17k, probably at around Dow 16,950, then for the Dow to target a swift downtrend in to the range of 16,200 to 16,000 that may even bottom before the end of June. Which would set the scene for the stock market's next assault on Dow 17k into early August as illustrated by the below forecast graph, a failure of which I imagine would subsequently prompt many perma bears to start screaming DOUBLE TOP at the top of their lungs on the likes of CNBC and regurgitated at length by the blogosfear.
The Dangers of Stock Market Rallying Without Correcting
The stock market trend since my last analysis whilst volatile has nevertheless been bullish and thus failed to unwind bullish sentiment despite the occasional sharp 1 day drops that failed to trigger a meaningful correction which to me implies -
a. A stronger correction is now more probable
b. The probability for an ACTUAL 'THE TOP' materialising in the stock market has increased to what percent ? Best guess 25%.
Is the Stocks Bull Market Over?
To reiterate what I have periodically and unequivocally stated for the PAST FIVE YEARS and once more excerpted below, taken from an article when the Dow was significantly LOWER.
The bottom line is this the US government shutdown is GREAT NEWS! because for bull markets to persist and continue they NEED BAD NEWS every few months, THEY NEED MOST PEOPLE TO BE SKEPTICAL, TOO AFRAID TO INVEST! And so it continues to be the case for the DURATION OF THIS BULL MARKET, where over 90%, NINTEY PERCENT OF Market commentators have been WRONG and continue to be WRONG, Everyone who has just proclaimed its END IS WRONG and Will BE CRUCIFIED, just as they have been crucified at every market turn for the past FIVE YEARS !
YOU WANT TO LOVE MARKETS THAT ARE HATED!
YOU WANT TO BE AFRAID OF MARKETS THAT ARE LOVED!
UNDERSTAND THIS - THIS stocks stealth bull market is one of the GREATEST bull markets in HISTORY!
Off course a real life crucifixion would mean the fools would would ceased and desisted in their demented ramblings, but that is one of the negatives of the passing of the Pagan Roman Empire. Instead the so called market commentators march on as if nothing happened despite spouting more garbage because clearly they NEVER put their own money on the line, which is the real secret for arriving at the most probable outcome. This is why virtually every time I write an article on the stocks bull market I get so many comments and reasons to explain why I this time I am wrong and it has ended.
Instead I have to reiterate what I have voiced for the duration of the stocks stealth bull market in over 200 articles (Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470 ), my strategy has been very, very simple, no black box voodoo to sell garbage to the unsuspecting masses but simply this - " The Greater the deviation from the stock market high then the Greater the Buying Opportunity Presented". And, you can't get any simpler than that !
Off course today the key point of difference is that the stock market has so far FAILED to correct there has been NO significant deviation from the Stock Market High so the right thing to do right now is to SELL - Distribute into the rally.
STOCK MARKET BLOW OFF DANGER
Whilst I DO NOT consider the stocks bull market to be over. However for me the most dangerous thing the stock market can do now would be to start rallying strongly and thus risk entering the BLOW OFF PHASE when investors lose all sense of of reality and send stock prices soaring by 20-30% into the stratosphere that probably COULD terminate this 5+ year stocks bull market.
What I Am Doing
I have to recognise the increasing risks and will be further reducing by exposure to the stock market by 1/3rd to approx 15% of assets in favour of UK housing.
The bottom line - The stocks bull market is NOT OVER, the danger is that it could enter a BLOW OFF STAGE which would risk its end. However failing that the stocks bull market has SEVERAL MORE YEARS TO RUN!
Its not rocket science its BUY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATIONS FROM THE HIGH and DISTRIBUTE At Sentiment EXTREMES.
Meanwhile what the Russians are doing in and over Ukraine and what the Israeli's are doing in and over Gaza put things into perspective giving a valuable window into the various levers of power that the Elite exert over the people of the West who delude themselves of being FREE, where Russia's murders of 300 innocent passengers is broadcast as a Tragedy whereas Israel's murders of 400 innocents and over 4000 injured IN THEIR HOMES is apparently acceptable with many apologists for fascists in the mainstream media justifying the unjustifiable on the basis of 2000 year old myths that NEVER HAPPEND!
Even children playing on a beach are not safe from self professed chosen people of a mythical god used as justification for blasting children into smithereens.
Israeli Prime Ministers spokesman happy to justify killing children playing on the beach (Channel 4 News).
My next in-depth analysis will pull all of the threads together to reveal that the ISIS Islamic State is following the blueprints of the Israeli Zionist state and what its implications are for the future.
Fundamentalist ISIS Islamic State = Fundamentalist Jewish Zionist Israeli State = ?.... find out in my NEXT article.
Your analyst who has been net long of stocks since late Feb 2009.
Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46521.html
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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