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Trading Lessons

U.S. Government Shutdown Great for Stocks Bull Market, Bears Will be Crucified Again

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Oct 03, 2013 - 07:29 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

The U.S. Government has shutdown, some 700,000 workers told to stay at home and speculation rife that the U.S. is 2 weeks away from debt interest payment default, so it is not surprising that Doom and Gloom prevails as supposedly a new bear market has once more begun, right at the maximum point for seasonal weakness for the stock market. The perma bears and many other inexperienced but highly vocal market commentators can be found jumping up and down like demented rabbits proclaiming the likes of the "Top is In", just google the stock market and you will see an near infinite number of pages of commentary proclaiming that the bull market has ended, despite the fact that the same commentators never rode it on the way up!


After all the stock market Dow price chart looks rather scary, with the Dow last closing down again at 15,133, now having fallen near 600 points in less than 2 weeks, and charts for other stock markets such as the FTSE look even worse!

I keep being reminded of the movie SPARTICUS where the slaves are lined up at the end just like market commentators line up at the depths of market corrections to once more proclaim that they too are ALL Sparticus! Calling THE Top! However, we all know what happens at the end of the movie, as they all end up getting crucified, and we don't have to look far to see what happened following EACH end of the bull market final top call of just this year! Let alone a bull market that is now well into its fifth year.

The bottomline is this the US government shutdown is GREAT NEWS! because for bull markets to persist and continue they NEED BAD NEWS every few months, THEY NEED MOST PEOPLE TO BE SKEPTICAL, TOO AFRAID TO INVEST! And so it continues to be the case for the DURATION OF THIS BULL MARKET, where over 90%, NINTEY PERCENT OF Market commentators have been WRONG and continue to be WRONG, Everyone who has just proclaimed its END IS WRONG and Will BE CRUCIFIED, just as they have been crucified at every market turn for the past FIVE YEARS !

YOU WANT TO LOVE MARKETS THAT ARE HATED!

YOU WANT TO BE AFRAID OF MARKETS THAT ARE LOVED!

UNDERSTAND THIS - THIS stocks stealth bull market is one of the GREATEST bull markets in HISTORY!

Off course a real life crucifixion would mean the fools would would ceased and desisted in their demented ramblings, but that is one of the negatives of the passing of the Pagan Roman Empire. Instead the so called market commentators march on as if nothing happened despite spouting more garbage because clearly they NEVER put their own money on the line, which is the real secret for arriving at the most probable outcome. This is why virtually every time I write an article on the stocks bull market I get so many comments and reasons to explain why I this time I am wrong and it has ended.

Instead I have to reiterate what I have voiced for the duration of the stocks stealth bull market in over 200 articles (Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470 ), my strategy has been very, very simple, no black box voodoo to sell garbage to the unsuspecting masses but simply this - " The Greater the deviation from the stock market high then the Greater the Buying Opportunity Presented". And, you can't get any simpler than that !

What if I am Wrong?

Off course I could MISS THE TOP, off course I could for I don't have a crystal ball, instead all I have is my now near 30 years experience of trading, investing and analysis, which has kept me on the RIGHT side of this BULL market for FIVE YEARS! So Yes, I could be wrong, after all at the time of the top it will be a 50/50 chance, but getting it wrong once in 5, 6, 7,8 years? would not be so bad when compared to those that get it wrong every few MONTHS!

As I voiced in my last ebook - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2013 (FREE DOWNLOAD), the real secret to investing is RISK MANAGMENET, I long since cycled OUT of most of my stocks holdings and INTO the UK housing market, i.e. down from a peak of 40% of wealth invested to currently around 17%, as against about 64% in UK housing, after all the stocks bull market is a MATURE bull market ,and the housing bull market is a NEW bull market.

Ensure you remain subscribed to my always FREE newsletter for your next dose of the Red pill.

For now I'll let the bears crow loudly despite the fact that THIS corrective price action was seasonally EXPECTED, for soon they will be silenced, wiped out, CRUCIFIED until they once more emerge at depths of the NEXT stock market correction.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article42518.html

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2013 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of four ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.

The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

ismail65
10 Oct 13, 10:46
Gold

Hi Nadeem, just wondering what your take on gold is at present, since it has fallen further than you expected in your past reports. Thanks


Nadeem_Walayat
10 Oct 13, 19:27
Gold and Silver

Hi Ismail

My focus for the past 6 months has been mainly on the housing market as that represents the best risk vs reward profile, then stocks with gold and silver a very minor part of my portfolio i.e. less than 3%, so I see silver particularly as a long-term investment, I scaled in at under $24 and my target is to exit at around $48.

My last long-term silver position was scaled into at under $12 and exited at an average of $34 after an approx 4year wait, so exit / target could be another 3.5 years away.

Best

NW


R.E.B
11 Oct 13, 09:52
Bull market

As we are seeing with the current Royal Mail issue despite many people saying it was a dead loss a few months ago it has turned out to be oversubscribed, as they are promising high dividends. People are being herded into stocks to chase any kind of yield. Meanwhile gas prices about to rise another 8% and Iam still waiting for the much vaunted deflation!


Nadeem_Walayat
11 Oct 13, 19:50
Deflation delusion

Hi

In my opinion there are 3 main reasons for the deflation delusion

1. They are academics living in ivory towers heavily invested in theories that don't work.

2. They are clueless commentators that just regurgitate academic theories, you can see this in their articles which are nearly always cut and paste jobs.

3. They are journalists who think they are economists and thus are even more clueless than the academics.

This is why over 90% of whats out there is garbage.

Best

NW


Parviz
16 Oct 13, 22:42
Eurozone Deflation

As I predicted above:

"Inflation in the eurozone dropped to a more than three-year low in September, Reuters reports, via The New York Times. According to data released by Eurostat, annual inflation in the eurozone as of September was 1.1 percent. This is down slightly from August’s value of 1.3 percent and down significantly from corresponding values in 2012, which came in at 2.6 percent. That means that inflation is down by more than 50 percent from its values a year ago."

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/data-eurozone-inflation-drops-to-3-5-year-low.html/?ref=YF


Nadeem_Walayat
17 Oct 13, 02:43
Eurozone INflation

Hi

Your contradicting yourself in your own post. Eurozone has INFLATION NOT DEFLATION!

Prices are STILL rising - EXPONENTIALLY.

DEFLATION = FALLING PRICES

INFLATION = RISING PRICES.

Rather than engaging in circular arguments you need to go back to square one and re-think about what your trying to say before posting, because it is CONTRADICTORY, does not make sense.

I have to get on, as I have a load of work to do on role the housing market plays in debt slavery, so unless I see some thing that is at least logical, it is unlikely to result in an exchange.

Best

NW


Parviz
17 Oct 13, 08:06
Inflation:Deflation

I wasn't expecting a textbook answer to my post. 1.1 % INflation is considered below the level to ensure growth and employment. So meaningful INflation is nowhere in sight.

When you have ANEMIC inflation it means that Depression for the 99 % is just around the corner. (It's actually already there). Your predictions of increased inflation are plain wrong (unless you're referring solely to the U.K. housing market on which you are clearly an expert).

Forget theories and textbook definitions. Here's the reality:

"QUOTE"

Hungrier than ever: Britain’s use of food banks triples

The Trussell Trust reveals 350,000 people have received emergency handouts since April, while government poverty tsar, Frank Field, condemns figures as ‘shocking’.

"UNQUOTE"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hungrier-than-ever-britains-use-of-food-banks-triples-8882340.html

The Chinese, Arabs and Russians can continue pushing up the price of U.K. housing, but the Anglo-Saxon Capitalist Ethos is totally discredited.


Nadeem_Walayat
17 Oct 13, 12:38
Exponential Inflation

You just don't get it.

Zoom out of the month to month volatility and look at the trend which is EXPONENTIAL !

END.!


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