Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals - 18th July 19
AI Machine Learning PC Custom Build Specs for £2,500 - Scan Computers 3SX - 18th July 19
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19
Stocks Market Investors Worried About the Fed? Don't Be -- Here's Why - 13th July 19
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? - 13th July 19
Stock Market SPX and Dow in BREAKOUT but this is the worrying part - 13th July 19
Key Stage 2 SATS Tests Results Grades and Scores GDS, EXS, WTS Explained - 13th July 19
INTEL Stock Investing in Qubits and AI Neural Network Processors - Video - 12th July 19
Gold Price Selloff Risk High - 12th July 19
State of the US Economy as Laffer Gets Laughable - 12th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State - 12th July 19
Stock Market Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks? - 11th July 19
Platinum Price vs Gold Price - 11th July 19
What This Centi-Billionaire Fashion Magnate Can Teach You About Investing - 11th July 19
Stock Market Fundamentals are Weakening: 3000 on SPX Means Nothing - 11th July 19
This Tobacco Stock Is a Big Winner from E-Cigarette Bans - 11th July 19
Investing in Life Extending Pharma Stocks - 11th July 19
How to Pay for It All: An Option the Presidential Candidates Missed - 11th July 19
Mining Stocks Flash Powerful Signal for Gold and Silver Markets - 11th July 19
5 Surefire Ways to Get More Viewers for Your Video Series - 11th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

This is Bad News for U.S. Economy and Stock Markets

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Jul 31, 2014 - 09:26 PM GMT

By: Submissions

Stock-Markets

Harry Dent writes: Volatile markets are shaking the U.S. economy and geopolitical conflicts are intensifying. This is bad news.

Iraq is falling into civil war, like Syria did after the Arab Spring across North Africa; Israel is invading Gaza; a Malaysia airliner was shot down over Ukraine — by who knows whom; and two Ukrainian fighter jets were shot down by Russian rebels.


But no problem! The markets go down for a day (on July 17) and then bounce right back up like nothing was happening at all.

The markets have gone nuts!

Even Janet Yellen, after saying there is no bubble, is warning of bubbles in select sectors like small cap stocks and biotech.

Major stock analysts are saying that stocks are fairly valued at 17 times earnings. Small cap stocks (at 26 times earnings) aren’t seeing their earnings grow any faster than larger cap stocks. They’re getting just 6% growth and even that’s slowing.

What are these people thinking? This is what I call an “economy of nut cases and sheep.”

Robert Shiller’s innovative, cyclically-adjusted model for measuring price-to-earnings ratios, which uses the average real earnings of the past 10 years, shows that stocks are highly overvalued (and getting more so). In fact, current valuations correspond to most of the greatest stock tops over the last century.

See for yourself…

Yes, such ratios were higher in the tech bubble that peaked in March 2000. But that was the greatest bubble in modern history. The second greatest was the auto and farm bubble of the Roaring 20s, which culminated on Black Tuesday.

But those are what I call rare and primary bubbles that see the combination of very strong demographic trends and surging technology penetrations like automobiles and the Internet. Don’t expect a repeat.

That’s not to say we’re not in a bubble right now. It IS to say that the market is now high on the fumes of its own success and will come crashing down soon enough.

My opinion of this is confirmed when I consider the Geopolitical Cycle, which alternates between positive and negative every 17 to 18 years. (An economic cycle always fluctuates between growth and recession.) During negative cycles, like the one we’re in now (from 2001 to 2019), stocks have roughly half the valuations than they do during the positive cycle.

Basically, this means that we’re extremely overvalued for this point in the negative Geopolitical Cycle. Only if we were in the positive cycle could we expect to see a repeat of the 1920s and 2000s bubbles and valuations.

Markets may go up some more, but we’re heading into the worst part of the Geopolitical Cycle, so stay very cautious. With worsening demographic trends and unprecedented debt ratios around the world, every day the market goes higher, the riskier things get.

When bubbles burst, it can be very violent. The first crash in May of 2000 saw a 40% drop of the Nasdaq bubble. It’s better to get out of a bubble like this a bit too early than a bit too late.

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules