Mark Blair writes: Short answer: too little data to know -- but this article will give you some food for thought.

# The five months of The China Thing ended on April 10. Merchant adoption etc. progressed solidly during that time. A year ago, adoption was going business by business. Five months ago, it was going company by company. At this point, it is going nation by nation.

# Shortly after the 'inflection point,' Bitcoin's price surged by over 60%. That was followed by a cooling.

# So, the cooling was not a concern -- but then it continued. Here's the most-commonly-discussed idea:

it's two-fold: technological developments have pushed crypto mining onto a new, higher, plane. It's big business now -- and those businesses are not 'HODL-ing' (holding) the mined coin. They have bills to pay; they are selling it. The second reason is similar: the businesses that have begun accepting Bitcoin (and now altcoins) also have bills to pay. They are selling the cryptos they accept.

Now, the crypto-sphere is a Wild-West saloon full of shouting sociopathic sock-puppets; and plenty of them will dismiss the above as 'FUD' -- fear, uncertainly, doubt. These players are those who believe the crypto-markets are more rather than less manipulated. They think that saying anything except Big Rally a-comin' is treason. The difficulty is that the indications are that Bitcoin and Friends should be rising in price, so we need to consider why they aren't.

There is one more analysis that warrants mention:

there is a gap between people first gaining knowledge of cryptos, and their really beginning to use them. Companies and Governments have (!?) put frame-works in place, but we remain in the 'betwixt-and-between' phase.

[I have done a little development in recent weeks on android-device-lovers' sites. These guys are absolutely a prime target-group for crypto adoption, but I found surprisingly little interest or current information.]

What's IndiaMikeZulu's position?

If you are not a geek who can discuss BitsharesX's DAC's, and Litecoin's trade-volumes, and the proliferation of assets on NXT's SAE, stay away from playing the Bitcoin market. It is a fine example of a 'chaotic equation': too many unknowns.

Rather, buy some Bitcoin; get advice on how to secure it; and wait. Even geeks like my mob are stunned by the pace of adoption. It's a crown-fire runnin' before a stiff breeze. (Every single citizen of Dominica is going to be given a pinch of Bitcoin.)

And if your business can set up to take Bitcoin, do so (though you won't take much for a good while -- which will give you time to figure out the accounting.)

Final Note: with respect, 99% of people who know what Bitcoin is don't know what altcoins are. However -- although their share of total market-cap will remain tiny until Bitcoin really gains pace again -- they are the bleeding-edge:

Ripple is Nos. 3; BitsharesX is Nos. 4; Nxt is Nos. 5 (and has 5 more of its 'family coins' on the charts); Dark Coin is Nos. 8; Maidsafe is Nos. 10; Counterparty is Nos. 13; Bitshares PTS is Nos. 14; Nxttycoin is Nos. 15 (Go, Nxxtycoin!).

Here's a tip: put Coinmarketcap on your Favourites. If you click on the price-data graphs, you will find 180-day and 365-day stats. Now, don't believe me. Spend a coupla hours crunching the numbers:

of the top 60 coins on CMC, only two are 'above the mark' of Bitcoin's April inflection-point. They are Mona Coin, a 'Japanese' coin; and Unobtanium. Mona Coin is younger and less stable. Unobtanium is uniquely stable.

Recommendation: buy and store Bitcoin. Join the Unobtanium community, and learn the ropes.

Mark Blair

Mark has a three-decades-long background in libertarian political theory and activism. He is part of 'IndiaMikeZulu,' an alliance of crypto-geeks who bought their first Bitcoin at $125 (and still have it). He holds Bitcoin, NXT, Nxttycoin, and Unobtanium.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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